If you feel like there’s been a trend of once red legislative seats turning blue it’s with good reason. In state after state Democrats have ‘overperformed’ and in some cases enough to truly catch the GOP by surprise. That was the case again in New Hampshire yesterday where the third time proved to be the charm for Democratic candidate Bobbi Boudman.
New Hampshire’s motto is Live Free Or Die and they take their right to choose their leaders seriously. No one, not even Donald Trump is going to win their votes by threatening them. Even in a solidly GOP state district and with every advantage a message was sent to Republicans and Trump that all bets are off. This article from MSNBC/MSNOW explains not only yesterday’s results but the broader context. First let’s start with yesterday. The GOP was actually cautiously optimistic. Trump had won by nine points in the district in 2024 and as noted the Democratic candidate had lost twice before – and by large margins. None of that mattered yesterday:
In what Granite State Republicans hope is not a preview of November, Democrat Bobbi Boudman won Tuesday’s special election for Carroll County District 7, defeating Republican Dale Fincher 51 percent to 47 percent in a district that voted Republican by more than 13 points just 16 months ago.
Since Republicans have an advantage in the district The New Hampshire Union Leader used terms like “stunning” and “huge upset” to describe what happened. Ok, that’s the starting point. Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams boast about Tuesdays becoming headache days for the GOP. When you look at the past year it’s hard not to think Republicans all over the country feel a sense of unease, if not outright dread going into election days by now. Trump is dragging them all down, and if they speak up too strongly against him they put a target on themselves. Personally I hope they suffer continual sleepless nights. They brought this on themselves after all.
Anyway, the linked article is chock full of data points from around the country. In January two seats in Minnesota were lopsided wins. Shortly after in Texas the GOP put major resources into holding a seat in the Ft. Worth suburbs in a district Trump carried by 17 points. They failed as Democrat Taylor Rehmet (a union leader and Air Force veteran) won by double digits. Over in Louisiana the GOP thought they had a real shot at flipping a blue seat. Trump had after all carried it by seventeen points. The Democrat holding the seat gave it up to become Commissioner for the Office of Alcohol and Tobacco control so it was an open seat. Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won by Twenty-Four points! Yikes. To add insult to GOP injury we also flipped a seat in freaking Arkansas. Not quite as big a deal since it’s a close, quirky district but it still adds to the pattern.
The article notes it’s worth being cautious about reading too much into special election victories. Also that we’re a ways off from November and eight months can be more than a single lifetime in politics. However we’ve been mostly winning elections since November 2024. Big stuff like three state’s ‘off year’ elections and as we talk about here a host of smaller state level races. Even in the handful we’ve lost our candidates have thrown a real scare into those who managed to keep a seat red.
Here’s something in the article that should make you sit up in your seat and vow to either get engaged or become more so. We’ve flipped ten Red seats – turned them BLUE:
What’s more, The Downballot noted that the results out of New Hampshire marked the 10th time Democrats have flipped a district from red to blue in a special election since Trump returned to the White House. Over that same period, the number of seats flipped from blue to red remains zero.
When it comes to flipping seats we’ve been pitching a shutout. Trump as I said isn’t helping down ballot Republicans. More often than not he’s hurting them. Worse (for GOPers) he won’t let go of his tariff madness and between that and some of the effects of his BUFB (sometimes called the BBB) take hold this year control of Congress is within reach. Not just the House, but maybe even the Senate. I saw somewhere that in Texas, Democratic candidate James Talarico is already outpolling both Cornyn and Paxton.
Stout hearts folks. We CAN do this. We need to be as well informed as possible and on as many things as possible. Not just the handful of items national news outlets talk about but as many state and local matters as you can cram into your heads. THAT is what allows you to win over Independents and even Republicans who are finally questioning whether Trump is more trouble than he’s worth. At some point some of them will decide ‘owning the libs’ is less important than having elected officials that will make their lives easier instead of harder.
That’s why I keep saying sites like this are so important. We search for and tell you about stuff the big outlets barely (if at all) talk about. However while so many laws of political physics seem to be in suspension it seems like the one about “All politics are local” is regaining its gravity. It’s up to us to help that process.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
