There’s been lots of coverage of Trump’s approval, or rather sinking approval ratings. Not so much when it comes to his VP, J.D. “Chameleon” Vance. Well, just so you know like Trump, Vance is underwater. Not as far under as Trump but enough that his unfavorability rating is outside the margin of error in most credible polls. Within that however is a truly serious problem, both for Vance and the GOP. Gen Z/younger conservative males pretty much can’t stand him!
This is the crowd Charlie Kirk resonated with, and a group who the GOP is counting on in the midterms, and 2028 as well. However there are troubling signs and Alternet has written an interesting article about how they view Vance and why they want someone, almost anyone (well, at least someone with a conservative track record) else. Before directly addressing that I want to emphasize the overall picture. Vance is in fact underwater and it’s not a new thing. If you want data to back that up you can find it here via RealClear Polling with an easy to read chart that lists numerous polls, most with names you’ll recognize. (this is where I hope PZ’s polling/data guru Murfster is able to contribute again as the year progresses)
Again however there’s always the view from thirty-thousand feet and then the one from much closer to the ground. Each major Party has subgroups. How much influence any given portion of a major Party has at a given time varies. However the GOP has pinned an awful lot of its current and FUTURE hopes on Turning Point USA, created by the late Charlie Kirk. Charlie’s body wasn’t cold before his widow Erika was maneuvering (successfully) to take over. Questions about how all those younger white males Charlie had taught to view women as homekeepers and babymakers, to leave the working/income earning ‘man stuff’ to men would take to her. Those questions haven’t gone away.
I’m not saying TPUSA won’t be a force come November but there’s infighting already. (and then there’s that hug between Erika and J.D. that got tongues wagging) Anyway Trump, Vance and the GOP in general flat-out needs this group to vote and in droves and with Vance as the heir apparent to Trump/MAGA they are somewhat less than motivated. Not that they will vote for a Democrat in any race, but voting third Party or worse not voting at all is a significant loss for the GOP and benefits Democrats. Yes, that alone will get some of them to very reluctantly toe the line when it comes time to vote. Still, we all know how important voter enthusiasm is. In close races it’s a difference maker and lack of total enthusiasm with this group is as I said causing a lot of sleepless night in GOP places.
The Alternet article gives an overview of a focus group of Gen Z males and not a one of them liked Vance as the new head of MAGA/the GOP. Ouch. It’s s short article worth your time but one point I’d like you to think about not addressed is that Charlie was shot and killed months ago. These guys have all had time to take stock, to look at both where things stand and where they might be headed. More importantly during the holidays when we spend time with or at least connect with family and friends they’ve had a chance to talk with other like-minded people. The takeaway was clear. They do NOT want Vance leading the GOP/MAGA.
As the linked article from Alternet says we are a long time out from 2028 but Vance is positioned to take over for Trump. Yet he’s unpopular with just about any group you can name. As they put it the GOP is already facing headwinds and “poll after poll” indicates Republicans are not happy with with Vance as Trump’s successor. That brings me to Gen Z, Charlie Kirk’s ‘boyz’ and TPUSA on which the GOP has been counting both now and in the future:
This is especially true for younger, Gen Z Republican voters. On Friday, Politico released the findings of a focus group conducted among “nine young men who supported Trump in 2024,” revealing major discontent with Vance as a hypothetical 2028 nominee, citing his connection with the failures of the second Trump administration and with the Washington D.C., establishment.
“I feel like it’s just time for someone new, especially for the Republican Party,” Alexandre M. of Maryland said. This participant was particularly bothered by Trump’s handling of the Epstein files, and suggested that this would represent major baggage for the Vice President, “because JD Vance was also pushing that as well.”
Another voter, Sam Z. of Minnesota, argued that due to his unpopularity, Vance would not be electable in 2028, an election where the GOP will already be on the back foot in the face of voter revolts against Trump.
Ok, you say. But it’s just one part of the GOP. The thing is, Kirk had built a serious GOTV program that of course targeted younger voters but was built to take all that youthful energy and put it into a broader conservative GOTV effort. If you’ve never canvassed or phone banked you know how grinding the work is. It’s essential but it’s damned hard work. It takes commitment and enthusiasm to put in the effort it truly takes to mobilize voters. I could be wrong but I think the GOP is counting heavily on this group not just to vote but for their GOTV work. If they aren’t highly motivated and busting their tails it can and will make a difference in a lot of close races.
Which means their feelings about Vance, which go beyond lack of enthusiasm to downright dislike something to keep an eye on. Like I said they want someone credible with “chops” of course but it’s clear they want their Party’s next leader to be anyone other than Vance. They think he’s too connected to the current establishment (which although not talked about includes Trump), and that he’s not the J.D. Vance that existed before shedding all his old beliefs/values and drinking the Trump Orange Kook Aid.
Vance has flip-flopped they say on too many issues. Only Trump gets away with changing his mind on a whim, a lesson Vance might have already (too late) realized if he’s looking at polling. Who am I kidding? OF COURSE he’s been looking and trying to figure out what the hell to do. From where I sit he’s toast and if he wants to be President he can convince the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment and get it that way. Then, as those in that focus group say lose in 2028. But at least he’d have about three years which is more than damned near everyone else in our history have gotten.
Well, let’s keep our focus on the midterms. Vance’s unpopularity can if Democrats play it right be helpful. Still, it’s not possible to completely set aside thoughts of 2028. What matters is that Trump is a drag on the ticket this year, and so is Vance because plenty of Republicans are thinking what most reading this are. Even if he lives that long Trump won’t try to run for a third term and if not a co-leader of the GOP there needs to be someone the rank and file can look to and say ‘It will work out. HE will be able to take over and keep things going.” Vance isn’t that guy and that’s especially true with Gen Z and Charlie Kirk’s TPUSA crowd. They might as well form an “Anyone but Vance” movement:
When pressed for who they might like to see run for the nomination, the focus group put forward a few different names: Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and Florida gubernatorial candidate James Fishback.
When asked who would be in favor of Vance’s 2028 candidacy, only one of the nine participants raised their hand, according to Politico. Later on, this participant said that, despite raising their hand, they were actually unsure about Vance, though they did note that his experience as Vice President would give him an edge. Vance is the apparent heir apparent and the bloc that should be most enthusiastic, to see an actual young GOP standard bearer aren’t just saying no but hell no. I keep saying it but this is a real problem the GOP has got both this year and in the future. If they can’t fix it, and it’s hard to see how they can without making on big mess we’ve got a real chance if we don’t find our own way to screw up.
In closing I’ll let my mean streak out for a bit of a romp. Vance is an incompetent (his career before Peter Theil bought him his Senate seat) proves that, and he’s more malleable than a chunk of bread dough. Watching him go down in flames might turn out to be even more fun that when DeSantis did so.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
