This will be short and sweet. Troy Nehls who has been in Congress since 2021 has chosen to resign. He’s been supportive of Trump and says he will continue to be but he decided it’s time to step away. He informed Trump before his announcement. So how is it Trump’s endorsing ‘Nehls’ for Congress minutes later? It turns out Troy’s twin brother Trevor is gong to run for the seat! Since he apparently is as slavishly devoted to Trump as his brother Troy and Trump knows it he gets the endorsement. For Trump is a case of ‘Troy…Trevor…whatever.’
This is a breaking story on this Sunday afternoon but the basics are now set. Troy is leaving Congress to ‘spend more time with family’ and his TWIN brother Trevor who’s every bit as all-in with Trump as Troy is has already gotten Trump’s endorsement. I rather doubt that any GOPer down there in Texas who had information Nehls might leave office and was exploring a run for the seat will bother to do so now. As for voters in the district it’s one brother with positions they already know being replaced by a TWIN brother who looks the same, sound the same and says the same things as the brother who’s abandoning that Congressional seat. Yeah, I think it’s fair to say for not just Trump to say “whatever” – will like their Trumpty NOT even notice the difference.
One thing that jumped out at in the short Tri-City Herald article is that this is a competitive district at least according to The Herald. I’m not sure on what they base that assessment because Nehls won re-election in 2024 by a 62-37 margin according what I learned. This is after all Ron Paul’s and Tom Delay’s old district. Perhaps they, and more importantly Nehls have information there’s been a shift since Trump got back in. Nehls does have his lips surgically attatched to Trump’s fat ass so his approval might have plummeted like Trump’s has.
The other thing to consider is that Texas infamously kicked off the mid-cycle gerrymandering wars, and SCOTUS has this past week overturned a fact-based district court ruling against the new map and allowed it to be used come November. To pull off adding give seats the GOP has to shift reliable GOP voters from what had been really solid red districts and use them to dilute blue districts enough to make them red. In theory.
Naturally you want to do a vicious gerrymander the first place you look to get your solid votes from is districts your Party carried by 20 plus points. More than you’d think those holding office in such districts don’t like it when such stuff is being considered. For on thing they like being able to brag about how big they won, and at the federal level it gives them clout in committee assignments as being from particularly safe seats. The other reason is that whopping winning margins drives off potential primary challenges.
I’m no expert on Texas Congressional maps but I’m thinking Nehls did indeed see a big chunk of “his” voters shuffled off to some new district to turn IT from blue to red. Already facing a serious possibility of being in the minority after the midterms AND given he’s endured his share of scandal (his history in LE and even the Army with stolen valor on his record for wearing a combat decoration he didn’t rate) it made sense he’d consider retirement. Add in Democratic overperformance in special elections this year including a Congressional one in Tennessee this past week showed that even a ten or twelve point advantage might not be enough we shouldn’t be surprised Troy is pulling the plug.
My point is that while my initial reaction was the seat will easily pass from one brother to another the trend this year meant that if the new map knocked Nehls down to a ten or twelve point advantage he might actually be vulnerable. If so, one could make the case that having his TWIN brother Trevor take over instead of another brother could spell trouble. A good Democratic candidate can use pictures like the title pic, and even better ones of BOTH Troy and Trevor posing with Trump and hang Trump around Trevor’s neck like an anchor.
Trevor, according to the linked article wasted NO time in thanking Trump for his endorsement and promising to keep up the good(?) work! Whatever campaign the Democratic Party was planning will require minimal recalibration. Well, let’s wait until well after the holidays when things have settled down, primaries are underway and there’s multiple round of polling regarding the new districts that will be in place for the midterms. Maybe with the right candidate this could turn out to be a seat we can flip.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
