I hate to have to return to the issue of Trump and Putin. However despite all we’ve got going on at home we really need to be paying attention to what’s happening on the other side of the Atlantic. During his first term Trump refused to commit to the U.S. honoring NATO’s Article Five (an attack against one member is an attack on all) and given Trump’s long list of capitulations and sucking up to Putin this has been a concern. Putin’s forces have tested how much it could get away with, but in recent weeks it’s gotten bolder. It’s not a stretch to think Putin is trying to force NATO to invoke Article Five, AND expecting Trump to say ‘No thanks. The United States will sit this one out.’
Why would I say such a thing? Specifically, while there’s sometimes some tough talk from Trump in the end he serves up a signature ‘TACO’ (Trump Always Chickens Out for those who haven’t yet learned the acronym) when it comes to dealing with Putin. Ole Vlad who during his KGB career was an analyst in an office and never served in the west doesn’t know us as well as he thinks. However he’s long had Trump’s number. Putin knows Trump has to make a show of standing up to him but when the chips are down it’s what HE wants that happens. Or not. Trump takes marching orders.
This is an issue because while there have been ‘errant’ missiles and such as this article from The Wall Street Journal notes there have been two separate incidents in two counties via separate means of Russia violating NATO airspace with military equipment. Last week we had an incident with 19 Russian drones crossing the border into Poland’s airspace. They were engaged by NATO radar and warplanes. While some landed on their own, some were shot down. Again, it’s not the first time Russia has ‘tiptoed’ across Poland’s border but nineteen drones is a significant escalation. Now we have not drones but actual Russian warplanes violating the airspace of another NATO member:
The Russian jet fighters were in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes and left after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization aircraft responded, said Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal. It marked the second time in two weeks that a NATO member invoked Article 4 of the alliance’s treaty, triggering formal discussions.
Everyone knows Putin invaded Ukraine. In part he did so because like so many Russians he believes it belongs to, or has always been part of Russia. History teaches all the rest of us otherwise but I’ll not get into that. Another big thing for Putin, who has his entire life hated NATO the way Ukrainians hate Russia (and THEY have good reason after a hundred years of brutalization from Russia to do so) he’s hoped Trump would destroy the NATO alliance. It was NATO that kept Russia from taking all of Europe after WWII and Putin has never gotten over the old USSR losing the Cold War. He blames NATO and he’s been as obsessed by destroying it as Trump was with boinking wannabe Princess Ivanka.
Trump DID weaken NATO in his first term but Biden quickly set about repairing the damage. Worse, while Ukraine was a long, LONG way from becoming a NATO member they had started getting their act together. Enough so that although it might take a decade to prove they were solid enough for membership they started being integrated into NATO and the European Union, hence the Russian invasion. It failed. You might say the fight is ongoing and it it. However, Putin’s grand design was that within days, or at most two weeks Russia would have “won” by seizing control and if not killing Zelensky at least driving him into exile. NOT winning, at least the way Putin had planned and expected has been the same as losing.
Worse, the whole thing has resulted in increasing integration of Ukraine, both military and economically with NATO and the European Union. It might not be formally part of the family but one could say a ‘wedding’ is in the cards down the road. That makes it all the more critical for Putin to weaken if not bust up NATO. It has actually GROWN since the invasion with two new members, Sweden and Finland which had famously said no thanks to applying even though they had cooperative agreements with and conducted joint exercises with NATO becoming full members.
Putin’s ONLY chance at this point is to if not break up NATO to at least cripple it. Forcing it to have to invoke Article Five and letting Trump know ‘YOU guys stay out of this’ is his only chance. People smarter than me and who are actually involved in actual goings on are concerned Trump would publicly say No to NATO if asked to honor Article Five obligations. Congress might force him to eventually do so but the damage would have been done. Putin is right about that much.
That’s why despite all that’s going on here at home you need to pay attention to this. Trump is unravelling before our eyes and the country is already wading in a pool of sh*t and headed towards the deep end. Epstein. Charlie Kirk and Trump’s using his death to destroy the first amendment. AND now a looming government shutdown. Putin can see this as well as any of our enemies. So can NATO which is why they’ve held Article Four discussions more than once lately.
It’s a no-brainer that those Article Four talks have been agreeing on mutual support in response to this new and clearly planned level of Russian aggression. The question we don’t hear what they’ve no doubt talked about is this: ‘What if we have to shoot down not just down Russian warplanes or repel an actual unit of Russians invading Poland or somewhere else?’Â Even more troublesome is the question: ‘If we need to invoke Article Five will the U.S., the backbone of NATO join us or leave us hanging?’Â Those are terrible questions to have to contemplate but if security on who’s saying what has been ironclad that’s what’s being talked about.
That’s why YOU need to be thinking of it because any day could bring an incident where NATO forces in an actual NATO country might have to military respond to Russia and KILL some of its soldiers or air crews. I think Trump will try to go TACO and it’s an open question on whether Congressional Republicans would force him to honor Article Five. And how quickly they could get him to do so. It would have to be within 24 hours or even less. Otherwise NATO as we knew it is done. So is ANY hope in the free world the U.S. can or will be an ally that can be relied upon. And for damned sure we will never again hold a position of leadership in the world.
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several high-profile NATO officials will be in the NYC next week. They are attending the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA)
neither thune nor johnson would force trump to ho or treaty obligations.
You’re right Denis that Trump’s refusal would spell the “end of NATO as we know it.” But not the actual end of NATO itself: big and powerful as the USA is, it’s not indispensable in real terms. In fact, losing Trumpland could (and I believe would) force NATO to become a slimmer and more focused force, concentrated on the military threat of Russia rather than the political threat of a back-stab by Trump. Ukraine has shown how poorly Putin’s much-vaunted armies fare against a clever, determined opponent defending its territory; those armies re so depleted now that rattling their sabres against NATO is an absurd bluff. Shoot down the next MiG which “strays” over a NATO border and we’d be referring to PACOs.