Sen. Jodi Ernst came to the Senate full of promise as a younger female in the Republican caucus. She was seen as generally more moderate than most and someone that Democrats believed they could at least deal with. The description may still be somewhat true in that Ernst is certainly not a flamethrower like Sen. Josh Hawley (Another fairly young Republican Senator), but in the end, she was as reliable a vote as the Republicans had. As but one example, she flirted with voting against Pete Hegseth’s confirmation, having “questions,” but ultimately voted for him. But now the entire process seems to be dragging her down as she heads toward an election that an Iowan incumbent should win. But she may not even run, according to Politico’s Rachel Bade, who says that Ernst had a “rough” year.
Bade appeared on Morning Joe and stated: (Video below)
“She has sort of gone through some of the motions suggesting that she could run again, she just hired a campaign manager, she’s raised about $1 million for her reelection effort, which is not super impressive, but it’s also not nothing. But behind the scenes, I’m hearing from Senate Republicans that they just don’t see the fight in her anymore.”
This matters. The Democrats have a tough hill to climb in the Senate – down three seats, but Republicans will have to defend this big, ugly bill that slashes Medicaid and SNAP, two things that moderates really care about. We have had reports that Republicans like Tom Tillis believe the bill will be ruinous for Senators in tough races. Iowa isn’t blue, but it certainly isn’t blood red, either.
 “[She] has told people recently that she hasn’t even decided whether she wants to run again. Number one is that she previously was in leadership. [Sen.] Tom Cotton (R-AR), who is actually a close friend of hers, ran against her and totally ousted her from that position. I’m told that she actually felt rather betrayed, and that was a huge sore point for her for a while.”
Yeah. This is typical Republican sh*t. If you are a woman in that caucus, good fcking luck to you as far as leadership goes. Women like Sen. Collins and Sen. Murkowski have significant power due to their moderate stance, yet they are often overlooked in leadership positions. Equally true is the fate of Alabama’s Sen. Kati Britt, who is not a moderate but not a flamethrower, either. As a Gen X / Millennial Senator, she is impressive on the stump but has not even sniffed leadership positions. Women in the GOP just get reliably buried.
“Then remember back in January, she totally got dragged by MAGA influencers online when she was sort of holding out her support for Pete Hegseth ––obviously had a lot of concerns about him. Ultimately, she voted for him, but that was after this really ugly campaign where she was basically made an example of by the White House and White House allies.”
So good luck trying to ask very legitimate questions of this White House’s picks for cabinet positions, even though on this one, it is likely that even true MAGA Sens. likely have serious regrets.
Despite our very legitimate cynicism about the MAGA faithful, there are decent people in the caucus who probably wish they weren’t there, and Ernst may be one. She has served in the military, and she is fairly impressive in her ability to express herself. But women in the caucus are generally treated exactly as we’d expect. (And Democrats are not a whole lot better, as compared to the House Democratic leadership, the Senate is almost bereft of women, with only Sen. Patty Murphy really close to top leadership. Frustratingly, Sen. Warren, Klobuchar, and Baldwin are sitting right there, more than ready.)
So if Ernst decides to run, or does so with very little enthusiasm for the reddest of the red Iowan Republicans, she will face voters in a state that isn’t an auto-Republican one. Yes, Iowa voted overwhelmingly for Trump, but he was in a somewhat unusual position, going against a Harris campaign that struggled to get traction. A good Democratic candidate, especially another woman, one who runs against that big, ugly bill choked full of Medicaid and tax cuts for the wealthy, there could be a pickup available in a state that traditionally ends up red.
The state has several impressive Democrats considering the position, people like Nathan Sage, a young veteran, J.D. Sholten, a young former professional baseball player, and Zach Walls, a very young (33) millennial, are all considering a run.
We will see. But if Ernst really isn’t into it and decides not to run, it may open up an opportunity for the above impressive candidates. It is critical that the Dems have a great young Democratic candidate (Certainly younger than me at age 54), and there is that chance. Ernst may be vulnerable as a pickup. Democrats need to really push the Senate races to take away the Republicans’ breathtaking advantage, holding every federal Constitutional branch. The Senate is tough but “doable” with respect to defending that sh*t bill that was pushed through against numerous objections and crazed behavior of leadership.
Last, the economy doesn’t look great, and that’s a killer for the party in charge.
See the video below:
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God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and also on X at @JasonMiciak, and please follow me now on Bluesky.
Zoomers, we are always in need of donations. It’s been an especially rough month, and my own health has not been great these past few weeks, which just adds to the frustration. Anything you can spare will be immensely appreciated. And thank you to all who have donated generously already. Ursula
Jason, at 54 you would be a kid in either house of congress