Yes despite our (natural) preoccupation with political goings on here in the U.S. the fact is major world events are still taking place. One of them, is the ongoing war in Ukraine and let’s be honest. Despite Ukraine having gained the upper hand all bets are off once Trump is back in office. For Putin it’s a matter of somehow holding out until then. A huge reason Putin is still alive and the war is continuing is the huge amount of support he’s gotten from North Korea’s leader Kim. (I’ll address the China factor later) Or “Little Rocket Man” as Trump has called him. Lot’s of weapons and logistical support. More recently Kim has sent a considerable number of ground troops to Russia to help in the fight along the Ukraine front.
Why Kim would do this is a rather long subject with sobering implications long-term. I won’t go into detail here. However, I’ll point out the tension and potential for another Korean War someday and this fact. Large and fearsome as it is, Kim’s North Korean army doesn’t have people who’ve experienced combat. Anyone who knows military stuff knows the value of having leaders, if not large numbers of troops that have been “blooded” as in having experienced combat. It DOES make a difference. I suspect Kim expected some losses but looked forward to developing a cadre of units and combat leaders who’d been under enemy fire and could lead if/when the shooting started with South Korea.
Whatever assurances Putin might have made it seems he’s treating the NK troops the same as his own. Cannon fodder for bloody frontal assaults that cost an enormous amount of injury and death for the troops fed into the meat grinder. It seems that’s not what ‘Lil Kim’ had bargained for. According to a short piece from The Irish Star Kim is ‘furious’ about how is troops are being deployed and the high number of casualties:
The source claimed: “Despite assurances of eternal friendship and full support for Russia in the war against Ukraine, Kim Jong-un does not plan to increase the amount of aid provided in the near future.”
They added frustration over casualties: “The leader of North Korea is also dissatisfied with how the North Korean military is used at the front and the large number of casualties among them.”
Estimates run from 12 thousand to 15 thousand NK troops that have been sent to Russia. Ukraine is famous for withholding specifics but I’ve read accounts since the NK troops showed up of thousands injured, killed and captured. Not to mention those who defected via surrender. They could be a gold mine to western intelligence and Ukraine knows it. I don’t see a full “break” between Russia and North Korea but dialing down support including and especially troops is about the last thing Putin needs right now. I used the term “about” for a reason. Remember me mentioning China? Well, it seems like Pootie has some new troubles with them and Xi all of a sudden too.
According to Newsweek banks in China are pulling back from business with Russia over concerns about new sanctions. China has been Russia’s main trading partner since the war began. Without that financial lifeline the already floundering Russian economy would have collapsed already. Hell, it’s been in the ICU even with China’s help. Keep in mind Xi could exert influence but he’s looking out for China’s interests first and apparently wants to maintain broader international financial relationships. So the banks in China are increasingly unwilling to do business with Russia:
Now trade between Russia and China faces another barrier after most Chinese banks terminated their relations with Russian credit institutions, general director of investment and consulting firm First Group, Alexey Poroshin, told the Russian daily broadsheet newspaper Izvestia.
This was also confirmed to the Russian outlet by Alexei Razumovsky, the commercial director of Impaya Rus. He said that the Bank of China is already refusing to accept payments from Russian banks that are on the new sanctions list.
The Ruble was already in deep trouble vs. the Yen and now this. Xi doesn’t like the idea of Ukraine becoming part of the European alliance. Even without NATO membership inclusion in the EU would be a post-war boon and even if Trump manages to engineer (again) less support for NATO a free Ukraine being part of the EU would make up for it to a significant degree. That of course would make it even more difficult for Trump to try and break up NATO. And if you’re thinking things will change once Trump is back in office don’t bet on it:
However, Poroshin told Izvestia that he did not expect the situation on trading with China to improve, even when Donald Trump enters the White House. But Alexei Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group, did express hope that the new U.S. president could usher in an easing of sanctions.
Yes, there are differing opinions in Russia but the fact such a debate is taking place publicly isn’t a good sign for Putin.
I’m sure someone will ask what if Putin decides to go nuclear? Personally I think Xi is signaling how bad a thing that would be. He can simply cut off Russia financially and every person with power and influence knows it. Including Putin. Russia would be completely isolated, especially with North Korea already having second thoughts lately about their own support. No, I think Putin knows he can sabre rattle but that sucker isn’t going to be drawn from the scabbard.
In the meantime Ukraine has become more capable of manufacturing some of its own weapons. AND both the U.S. and other western countries that have provided weapons and support have loosened the restraints and allowed Ukraine to strike well onto Russian territory. Yes, they still need artillery and missiles from the west but a big cut (or cutoff) of U.S. support wouldn’t cripple Ukraine the way it once would have. It also is good that President Biden is working hard to push out a last batch of military aid before leaving office.
Trump can and will make a lot of noise about no longer giving Ukraine tons of aid. What he and MAGA (including some of the GOP asshats on the Hill) have never understood (and too many everyday Americans who are Democrats for that matter) is thast MOST of those hundreds of billions of dollars in aid wasn’t cash shipped to Ukraine to spend. Nope. MOST of it was spent right here in the United States. Manufacturing new artillery shells, missiles, ammo and weapons systems. To replace our own stockpiles. Lot’s and lots of American jobs in mostly Red states have been a boon to our economy. The money those workers make gets circulated in their communities and the classic economic “multiplier” effect has worked its magic in a lot of places. A lot of whom vote Republican.
It’s been quite a jobs program for U.S. arms industry workers and the semi-sane GOP politicians know it. I don’t see them simply rolling over if Trump demands cutting off or drastically reducing aid to Ukraine. He might get some cuts but I don’t think anywhere near what he wants or so many fear. It’s an ugly thing to contemplate but war makes a lot of people and not just defense industry bigwigs a lot of money. Our bloated defense budget is the biggest freaking jobs program in this country or the world for that matter.
So add all this up and what do we have? A possible fraying of the alliance between Russia and North Korea. A definite signal from China that there are limits on how much they will continue to prop up Russia financially. Russia suffering appalling losses to only sometimes gain a couple of kilometers of territory in eastern Ukraine and Ukraine having the ability and permission to strike deep enough into Russia to hamper, if not prevent them from solidifying said gains. Ukraine fighting back. And Belarus still sitting up there and not doing anything to help. I think it’s pretty clear their own President wants no part of sending his own army south into Ukraine. No matter how much Putin has implored him to do do. No, he is doing all he can to sit this one out.
Will any meaningful peace talks take place anytime soon? I rather doubt it. Unless Putin suffers a ‘9mm headache’ and someone takes over and says enough is enough. Someone who wants to salvage what they can and try to rebuild a hollowed out country, but one with vast resources. Russia has a whole lot more than oil to trade on the world market after all. We are in for interesting times, but wouldn’t it make a nice Christmas present for ‘Lil Kim’ to tell ‘Pootie’ the equivalent of ‘I’m taking my ball and going home’ – as in no more of my troops being handed over for you to throw into your meat grinder. And sent those left back home!
If that happens in the weeks ahead, combined with China’s increasing reluctance to support Russian business Putin might not live to see Christmas this year.
It’s amazing what buttons are being pushed in Russia proper, by the turd that has always been the ultimate problem solver, simply by sending his, “special”, team out to introduce themselves to the, “Problem”, Hello sir, I’m agent X and these others are agents Y and Z, we are going to let you try a new thing for your own amusement … Step over here by this window and see how far down the pavement is … (As Y and Z fully open the window) … Now agent X says let us help you to get a closer look, and have a nice flight … OUT YOU GO!!
Putin always sits at his city block long table when others come to chat, if he is that afraid of his own shadow, he MUST be sweating a few gallons of turd oil every day now …
Everyone seems to have forgotten that Ukraine wasn’t just some impoverished vassal state in the old Soviet Union. It wasn’t, it was a major industrial power.
Any one who has traveled on a Russian transport aircraft in the past seventy years, flew on either a Tupelov or an Antonov. Antonov is Ukranian and has made over22,000 aircraft in it’s existence, so Antonov is similar in production totals to Boeing, or Lockheed. And many of these aircraft have been powered by Ivchenko-Progress engines, which also power most Russian aircraft from all the Russian manufacturers. The world’s largest aircraft for quite some time, the Antonov 225, (occasionally leased by the US military to take objects larger than the largest US aircraft could manage) was powered by Ivchenko-Progress engines as is the world’s largest helicopter. Most of the rocket engines used by the Soviet/Russian space program were also Ukranian.
So it’s hardly a surprise that Ukraine is getting going on advanced unmanned aircraft to fight their enemy. Let’s not forget, despite not actually HAVING a navy, they completely vanquished the Russian black Sea fleet, what’s left dare not leave port.
I’ve read russian manpower losses are 1000-1500 PER DAY. For over 1,000 days. That’s why he needs north korean soldiers and why he puts them out front for “cannon fodder”. russia cannot have too many more men of military age left. Good
they have lots of men, but only if they pull them out of essential jobs. that’s a part of what is going wrong with the Russian economy.
and most of the men they send are from the far eastern territories, some of which might be getting a bit restive about it.