Trump Silence on January 6th Pardons Starting to Scare His Loyalists

It would be impossible to tally the number of promises President-elect Donald Trump made while on the campaign trail. Trump is beloved by his supporters precisely because he does everything he can to keep his promises… Mostly. There are political promises that Trump makes on the trail that no one really thinks are serious even as they’re given – Mexico is going to pay for the Wall. And then there are the promises that everyone knows that he damned well does intend to deliver – creating massive concerns, see tariffs and deportation plans. There is yet another category – the “We will have to see… ” promises – things that can’t be known as to what’s going on in Trump’s head. One such “have to wait and see” promise will be whether to pardon convicted January 6th rioters – violent or otherwise. Trump did make such a promise on the campaign trail but is now very quiet on the subject. It is making some of his supporters nervous.

As with so many post-victory matters, one would expect Donald Trump to make his pardon plans known now so that prosecutors, defense attorneys, judges, defendants and their families can all start to make plans to take into account his plans and thus save time and money. If he is going to pardon everyone charged that day for various related activities – then he should say so now before more resources are used up in a moot proceeding.  But Trump is not telegraphing his next move, which is analyzed below. First to Politoco’s report:

Donald Trump campaigned on a pledge to pardon a vast swath of supporters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. But his silence on the matter since winning the election has begun unsettling some fervent allies awaiting even the slightest signal from Trump about how he intends to turn his campaign rhetoric into reality.

Federal judges overseeing Jan. 6 cases have been left to guess at Trump’s plans. As a result, they have allowed nearly all cases to proceed, saying Trump’s clemency plans are merely “speculative.”

There is almost no mechanism by which Trump could formally step in with a message or a motion until he is sworn in on January 20th. What Trump could do, however, is send an official letter from the transition to Merrick Garland, asking Garland to have prosecutors move to stay all proceedings based on what Trump thinks is the likelihood that he will pardon the defendants or dismiss the cases.  But absent such a letter, it appears that Trump is fine with allowing current and newly-charged matters to go forward:

Meanwhile, federal prosecutors have brought a handful of new Jan. 6 felony cases since Election Day, and they’ve argued repeatedly against efforts by defendants to delay their cases to await Trump’s inauguration.

There are precious few things we know with greater certainty than that Donald Trump loves the pardon power – it is the ultimate dictatorial act, no standard, wide open, and  – similarly, he loves using such power to help his own supporters. So it is not like Trump is ethically opposed to granting pardons that might be seen as a reward for committing the crimes on his behalf (See Roger Stone, Michael Flynn). But he may be opposed to granting pardons to the J6er rioters because unlike Stone and Flynn – they cannot “help” him at the moment.

Unlike Roger Stone or Steven Bannon – two Trump supporters who did receive pardons, the J6ers cannot testify as witnesses against Trump. They are not a threat to Trump’s criminal or civil liability. But they do represent big political risk in that much of the country does remember January 6th, does not like violence against the police, and a blanket pardon would be deeply offensive to many. One can be almost certain that Trump doesn’t want to open that wound again and may just leave it sitting aside.

After all, he hasn’t said; “Oh, and stop all those January 6th cases because I’m tossing them out!” And you would think that he would most certainly say so if that was the plan.

It seems as though the cases are going to be reviewed individually without blanket no-questions-asked pardons. Supporters who believed that Trump would immediately act to issue the pardons might not have accounted for the political risk in him doing so early in the term. It could easily infuriate the people he needs in Congress – the very same people who ran screaming away from the crowds that day. They should be a bit worried. This likely won’t be easy, nor will it likely be fast, or comprehensive.

God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak and now on Blue Sky – nice platform, fewer ads.

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