New Report: Vance Is Already Cooked – That’s Not Good

That didn’t take long. Just yesterday I wrote about reports regarding factions growing inside Mar-a-Lago, one of which had J.D. Vance within a group that I called “Camp Family” one that also included Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. And I wrote that this camp could bring a lot of mayhem to the transition but did not have any real power – not compared to camps with incoming Chief of Staff Susie Wiles or that of Transition co-Chair Linda McMahon. Additionally, last week, I also wrote that the transition used up a ton of Vance’s political capital by sending him out on the thankless task of leading Matt Gaetz by the leash around the GOP Senate, only to have Gaetz drop out the next day. And quite predictably – today we have a new article in The Wall Street Journal detailing the same point – Vance is almost an afterthought, despite being a very young Vice-President to someone who will be the oldest president ever sworn in.

Amazingly, the Journal uses the Gaetz nomination as an example of a Vance “failure” all in order to paint Vance as having less power than expected among his former GOP colleagues. This is laughably all-too-typical. Put the blame on a guy who almost surely couldn’t stand Gaetz (Vance sees himself as the epitome of a Christian values conservative), and not put the blame on President-elect Donald Trump who was the one who nominated someone like Gaetz in the first place and didn’t have the pull himself to get Gaetz through. So, this ends up being almost too much, per the Journal report:

 [The Gaetz failure leaves] an open question as to whether Vance will be as strong an asset for Trump on Capitol Hill as he was on the campaign trail—and where he best fits in the crowded Trump orbit alongside heavy hitters such as Robert Kennedy Jr.and Elon Musk, who want to make their own marks on the administration’ direction.”

The very fact that the Senate allowed Gaetz into their side of the building is a testament to decorum and – quite possibly, a refusal to humiliate Vance. Please do not see this as excusing Vance’s views on a thing, it’s just an objective observation. The guy is scary smart – with a Yale law degree, a best-selling book written as a virtual nobody, and his faith seems sincere. Say what one will, but there is no question that Vance knows the score, all too aware of the fact that he was hung out to dry. The report goes on to explain his current existence as such:

“It may be awkward for Vance, given the president-elect routinely hands out his cellphone number to allies on the Hill and elsewhere, and encourages them to reach out directly, when needed. Before the election, Trump even dismissed the role of presidential running mates and said voters were more focused on voting for him, and him alone, when asked about some of Vance’s early missteps on the campaign trail.”

To be sure, voters do not vote on the vice-presidential pick – only looking at it as a reflection of the candidate. By all reports, Vance was not in any way seen as a unanimous or obvious choice. Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, and Tim Scott were also given strong consideration. But Vance did emerge and accomplished the two things a vice-presidential candidate must do. He tied up his debate (There was no obvious news or winner from the Vance-Walz debate) and Vance didn’t make any mistakes that set the campaign back – that’s all that one can ask. Yet here he is, already on the outside looking in, which is also a reflection of the one at the top. Most people see Elon Musk as having far more power – because he does.

So where does that leave Vance and, even more probing, why care? We don’t know with any certainty but it is notoriously hard to work one’s way back into Trump’s inner circle. The pattern is such that one can expect Vance to only be increasingly isolated and weakened. And that is a bad thing. Please allow me to set out why before burying the idea.

If one starts with the presumption that no matter how brutally bad the situation might be, things can always get worse (at least until death), then one wants as many elected voices around Trump as possible. The Tucker Carslons, Steve Bannons, Charlie Kirks, all of them can demand the craziest, most extreme shit, more extreme than the extreme we know, and they can do so without fear of any accountability for the fallout. Politicians, especially young ones like Vance, have to at least think about things in a broader context and over a longer period. A politician’s currency is wrapped up in electability, not cash. Money dives at the dopamine rush that Tucker or Kirk deliver while demanding ever-increasing extremes. Those types only get rich when bringing titillation, not contemplation. A cautionary “Let’s slow down here and think about this a bit” message leads their audiences wandering away. They regularly set forth the most extreme priorities and policies and thus they need to be checked by somebody whose future is intertwined with accountability, failure, and what the voters see.

Believe me, I’m well aware of what Vance has said, the positions he’s taken, the “childless cat lady” and “eating pets” guy, all that. He isn’t good. But all of that stuff was also said amidst a campaign, and one never knows what the response will be when a campaign ends (Joe Biden got more liberal, who saw that coming?) you never really know what might be done when a candidate faces a crisis or must plan out those specifics that really will happen and really will have consequences. In that sense, it is probably best to have J.D. Vance at least in the room with a voice, knowing that Tucker, Elon, Kirk, Don Jr., and Steve Bannon will almost surely also be there. It is all relative. Even when the choices are all bad, some are worse. It doesn’t mean that anyone should help carry out any of the bad options, no – never acquiesce. It means that one should always fight to prevent the worst, always. Even if it means hoping that J.D. Vance isn’t forever shoved aside.

Alas, it is much harder to work one’s way back to power around Trump than to keep a slow, steady, first approach. But Vance is smart and can likely figure something out. It is probably best to have him in that room. Or, put another way, would you rather have Charlie Kirk or Steve Bannon getting the final word? There are no reports that Vance wanted to haul Gaetz around… he has to face voters again.

God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak and now also on Blue Sky, the best new place.

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