This will make your heart soar. We have lived through five of what the Washington Post calls “the most eventful weeks in recent political history.” We have seen, to wit, “A catastrophic debate performance, an attempted assassination of a presidential candidate, a vice-presidential pick, the Republican National Convention and, most critically, Biden dropping out of the presidential election and endorsing Harris.” And we have seen Obama-esque and for those of us old enough to remember, Kennedy-esque energy from Democrats energizing the country. What a welcome sight. I well recall the 1960 election, even though I was in the first grade and I remember Bobby Kennedy’s run in 1968 before a bullet ended it. It is the ultimate in irony that his whack-a-mole weirdo son is in this election, too. But such is the once in a generation, maybe twice, but rarely three times magic that the Harris/Walz ticket is generating.
After the debate, our polling average showed Biden’s position in the Sun Belt states deteriorating to the point that Trump was ahead by five percentage points in states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. In Michigan, Biden had slipped behind Trump by more than three percentage points.
But after Harris entered the race in late July, the election was effectively reset. Compared to other polling aggregators and models, The Post’s model took a bit longer to reflect the changes that came with Harris’s candidacy. That’s because we have chosen to use only the highest quality polls for our model, and not many polls that were released in the last few weeks met our standard.
According to our model now, Harris has become the slight favorite. Nonetheless, there are some caveats and cautionary notes — our polling model is only a snapshot in time and also, polls can err as we’ve seen in the last two presidential elections. […]
Harris is favored [to win because] … her improvement in the polls has opened up a second path on the presidential battlefield and in the electoral college. The polling suggests that, unlike Biden, she is no longer effectively tied to the Rust Belt — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — to hit 270 electoral votes. As of today, Harris is now only a typically sized polling error away from winning key Sun Belt states. Winning all of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia would also be enough to put Harris over the top and she is continuing to improve her position in those states.
Our model shows that for Trump to win the White House, he would need to notch victories in both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt.But crucially for Harris, she would win by taking just one of those two paths.
For now, that is a game changer.
BWAHAHAHAHAHA!! Ain’t it grand? Now you know that Trumpty Dumpy is either 1. reading the Washington post, or maybe Barron or Walt 2. give him a synopsis — and then duck so that ketchup doesn’t splatter on them. And so what does that boil down to? You guessed it: trouble for Chris and Susie. Oh noes. Rick Wilson kicks in his two cents:
The day will come, sooner than later, when Trump snaps and fires one or both of them. The best possible scenario is a lateral “They’re going to spend more time with the RNC” lie, but Trump is coming for their heads for the unforgivable sin of believing Trump would ever be a better version of himself.
Suckers.
They can scream in outrage. They can leak to reporters endless stories that if only Trump would recognize their genius and follow their directions the campaign would be banging away on all cylinders, racing towards a finish line where America would be made so great, greater than anyone had ever seen before. Big, strong men would come up to them with tears in their eyes praising the raw genius of their campaign. Speeches, book deals, and corporate board seats would follow after their stints at the White House and RNC.
Instead, they’re both rocketing toward a humiliating end.
Too arrogant to understand that nothing they could do would ever work, they tried their best for the first year of their tenure. Too comfortable with their own stature, both believed that no one could supplant them, and so smug they believed that at long last they would be the exceptions to Trump’s endless catalog of personal and professional treacheries.
Silly rabbits.
No one is essential in Trump’s world. No one is irreplaceable. No one is anything more than a useful tool for as long as Trump finds them sufficiently toadying and useful. This is a man who has never once observed a contract, agreement, term sheet, or marriage vow except in the breach. He’s fucked damn near everyone he’s ever been in business with for the last 50 years, and somehow Chris and Susie expected they’d be the exception to his rule.
I believe Rick Wilson is right. He’s been a political strategist for a long time and he knows the field as well as anybody. And I believe that the more the polls bend towards Harris that Trump is going to blame somebody other than himself. And don’t forget that he did fire Paul Manafort in August of 2016, Corey Lewandowski in June of 2016 and Brad Parscale in July of 2020. Maybe he’ll fire LaCivita and Wiles in September of 2024, ya spose?
I personally give Trump two weeks to reach critical mass and then start into a meltdown that will make Chernobyl look like an ice cream sundae by comparison. To quote Melania, “stay tuned.”
Everything Trump touches, dies.
There are no exceptions.
He uses and uses up all who try to work for him.
Malignant narcissists NEVER accept responsibility for anything THEY have ever done! Questions?
From what I gather when Trump FINALLY decided to STFU today and take some questions it was again softballs. Reporters didn’t challenge him and I hope Lawrence O’Donnell is back on the air tonight to take them all to task. Again. If journalists would do their f**king jobs and challenge Trump, between that and what’s coming next week and on into September he’ll melt down so badly it could have an effect I don’t think people are considering.
We KNOW a lot of work has gone into seeding County Election Boards and even getting some folks installed in state’s SecState offices to refuse to certify election results regardless or their state’s laws. However, if Trump is melting like the Wicked Witch of the West in The Wizard of Oz right before the country’s eyes they might decide it’s too risky a proposition to pull their stunts. Facing not just legal challenges but potential criminal prosecution I think it’s possible many of these people will decide the risk isn’t worth it. And remember, if some federal judge orders them to do their freaking job and they ignore the court order they are subject to being held in contempt. They might be all smug when they show up in court thinking the worst that will happen is the judge admonish them. I’ll bet they will come to Jesus right damn quick if the judge orders them taken into custody and tells them they can sit in jail until they perform their prescribed by law and under court order should have already done.
The thing is, for all the crazy we’ve seen what is needed is to truly push Trump over the edge. Cause him to have a “Loansome Rhodes” moment as portrayed by Andy Griffith. Something like that on live TV with millions watching in real time. And it would go viral, taking down Trump and the GOP. I’ll bet older GOPers who remember that movie are increasingly fearing that very scenario. But the important point is it might well discourage a fairly large and organized plan to steal the election for Trump by locals refusing to certify election results.
Geez Denis…seems like the trouble some are ALREADY in for trying that in 2020 would cause some to pause…some people never learn. I guess given Trump’s profile, trouble with the law is a sign of loyalty to the king. They may want to check his legal tab since THEY are the ones being fleeced to finance his battalion of attorneys. Who’s going to foot the bill for them? God?