It’s been obvious for the better part of a year that federal District Court Judge Aileen Cannon would do almost anything she could to tank the case against Trump down in Florida. A National Security case involving lots of our most sensitive classified information. Well, this morning Cannon (a Trump appointee confirmed in a rush just before he left office) went from ‘almost anything’ to ‘Screw it. I’m tossing the whole case out.’
This article from Salon lays out both what Cannon ruled, and how it could ultimately backfire on her. But first let’s talk about her dismissing the entire case today. If you’re like me your first reaction was ‘We knew she was in the tank for Trump but still…How could she?’, followed by ‘Well, at least Special Counsel Jack Smith has gold plated reason to appeal and maybe even get her removed from the case entirely.’ And then, ‘Trump and his people are going to crow about this at the RNC and make it seem even more like God is on his side.’ And finally ‘Cannon must really think Trump’s going to win and appoint her to replace either Thomas or Alito.’
Then I started thinking about two things. Trump’s ego, and the law of unintended consequences. To a degree they’re inter-mixed but let’s keep in mind we’ve known since it seems like forever the Republican National Convention would be starting today. Cannon had to have known it too. Maybe she thought issuing the dismissal ruling today would get drowned out by the convention. Clearly she made the decision a while back. And then we had the events over the weekend. One could credibly argue she thought (hoped?) the story would get no notice and/or quickly forgotten. I happen to believe she had decided at least a week ago today would be the day and I readily concede a case can be made she had good reason to think what I’ve stated above – it would get lost in the noise and be forgotten.
Here’s why I think she was wrong, and would have been even if some asshat hadn’t taken a shot at Trump Saturday. Trump is an attention whore and he was looking forward to this week. A whole week about HIM, with his MAGAs engaging in orgiastic cum religious/spiritual worship of him and the rest of Republicans enthusiastically playing along. Even if they hadn’t yet drunk enough orange Kool Aid to be full cult members. I’m sure he was ticked off that the actual President would be doing some counter-programming that the news networks would mention, but he also knew that would include more of the “is Joe too old” crap so he was dealing with that particular problem ok.
Then Saturday happened. Within an hour, once all the main players knew Trump was fine and had indeed barely been nicked, that HIS wound was truly superficial work began on a new convention theme. Which would be the “miracle” Of Trump’s survival (I call it incredible luck of his would-be killer being a bad shot, or “choking” in his big moment. Or perhaps something else I don’t want to distract you with here) Work began on creating a convention of Trump being “ordained by God.” He hated having to cede a little attention to the announcement of his VP pick (as I’m writing this I see it’s Ohio Senator J.D. Vance) but that would be out of the way today.
Then it would become a sick, twisted parade that would offend most Christians but the RWNJ “Christians” who’ve sold their souls for Trump would heartily approve. It’s easy to envision speeches about the “persecution” of Trump, akin to the crowds that line the streets where their Jesus dragged his cross to Golgotha for execution. The shooting of course would be highlighted, and the suggestions that God himself watched out for Trump would become a drumbeat. Then while accepting the nomination during his speech Trump would find some way to proclaim being Ordained or Anointed by God himself. God himself has told the country (and world) ‘Not this time. I will NOT allow you to again crucify my messenger on Earth.’ Trump’s been setting up telling us HE was being delivered to us so Jesus could stay up there in (MAGA) heaven with God. And of course HE (Trump) would take things from here.
Hell, I can imagine a hastily created stunt of a platform lowering from the rafters with a chorus of angels singing, and well known RWNJ preachers dressed in white sprinkling gold mylar confetti down above and behind Trump!
Which leads me to Cannon’s ruling. I don’t think it’s going to be a only a one day story that gets drowned out. To a degree it might have caught Jack Smith by surprise, but in his concurring opinion in the SCOTUS immunity ruling Clarence Thomas provided a road map for Cannon to do what she’s just done. He practically invited her to do it. So if not “perfected” (a legal term relating to court motions/appeals) I’d imagine something was in the works. IF Smith can by Wed. file an appeal guess what a huge story it will be on Trump’s ‘bigliest’ day? It will be more than enough to rain on Trump’s parade at least some. In fact, if enough journalists talk and write about it (come on Democrats – stop talking about replacing President Biden and talk about THIS) I think it will in fact for at least a little rain (dare we hope “golden showers?”) on Trump’s plans this week.
Cannon might have just fired a cannonball made of a large, polished turd that will land in the convention hall and explode/break up into a giant cloud of dust. Made up of particles of sh*t! I’ll bet Trump is now worried about exactly that. And Cannon, who had fantasies about doing Trump such an awesome “solid” he’d jump her to the head of the line for his next SCOTUS pick instead has ensured she’ll spend the rest of her judicial career in her tiny, one judge courthouse.
Oh but it gets better. Remember I mentioned the law of unintended consequences? Well, part of what might give Cannon’s ruling journalistic “legs” this week is outlined in the linked article. Yes, Smith can appeal and has excellent grounds both to have Cannon’s ruling overturned, but also have her replaced by a different and actually competent judge. That second part is the LAST thing Trump wants. And even if when he appeals to SCOTUS (as he of course would if the 11th Circuit slaps Cannon down – AGAIN!) DOJ can simply have the U.S. Attorney down there refile the case!
That’s more than enough for journalists to take some time from convention goings on to talk about this week. And they will hone in on it even more when the RNC wraps up. I for one think Trump is going to be furious at the noise from Cannon’s “shot” stealing some of his thunder. However as late-night infomercials say ‘But wait – there’s more!’
Let’s say Smith, even if he can’t get it read this week drops his appeal in the 4th Circuit’s lap next week. It’s only the middle of July. It’s going to give those appellate judges who are sick of Cannon and the hassles she’s brought them (and The Federalist Society) quite decision to make. There’s simply too much precedent to uphold her. The issue is whether to deal with her now or wait. It’s going to be a political mess either way. Odds makers in Vegas are probably gulping down handfuls of blood pressure and ulcer pills trying to figure the odds on this one. (Act quickly or wait until after the election)
They’ve proven they can act “quickly.” It’s a relative term when it comes to appeals courts but there’s plenty of time for them to rule before the end of August. That appellate court took about a month each time to slap her down on her Special Master nonsense way before criminal charges were filed. Twice she was slapped down (hard) I remind you. And if as I suspect they again slap her down, AND order a new judge be assigned that means a new judge would have a couple months before the election to start getting up to speed. Sure, if somehow he wins Trump can order a new AG to refuse to continue prosecuting the case. But if not then we could see a trial early next year. In the meantime, since the courts aren’t bound by the DOJ’s ’60-day policy’ a new judge, just like judge Chutkan in DC can go right ahead with pre-trial stuff. Addressing motions and even holding hearings. None of which would be good news for Trump. On the contrary. The DOJ can’t tell judges what to do with their cases and if a judge wants to hear from either them or the defense then refusing to show up puts them in a world of hurt.
One could argue (credibly) that’s a mess the 11h Circuit doesn’t want to make. So they’d instead take their sweet time issuing a ruling that’s a legal no-brainer and at least overrule Cannon but not until November. However I think they’d prefer, and frankly so would The Federalist Society that Cannon be dumped. And forgotten. They have their 6-3 majority and cases in the pipeline that will allow another term that leads to another bevy of awful, freedom crushing (for most Americans) rulings. Thomas and Alito are old but not so old they won’t stay on the job hoping in 2028 they can be replaced by a Republican President (and Senate) with forty-year-old versions of themselves. Hell, maybe even Roberts too. None of them will, if President Biden’s elected be leaving the Court except in a casket.
Tacitly giving the go-ahead to the 11h Circuit to dump Cannon might well be what The Federalist Society prefers. A few months of crap to deal with but it could actually provide just enough of a veneer of they aren’t the big bad bogeyman they actually are publicity. They’ve always looked at the long-term (as in decades) and taking a hit now (by dumping Cannon and getting a judge who plays it straight even if it ruins Trump) is in their long- term interest.
They’ve gotten almost everything they wanted from him already. The current Court is very much to their liking and even if they don’t have Trump in the WH to name replacements for Thomas and Alito barring one or both of them dying there’s four more years of the kinds of rulings they want to have made and have been setting up. With more rulings against voting rights (for non-Republicans) and for more gerrymandering they can set up excellent odds for 2028. Sure, it would be nice (they think) to have Trump but it’s not a tragedy if he does go down in flames or even to prison. At worst it would be a bump in the road but remember what I said. Back in the 1980s when they got started they knew it would be decades before the tree they planted to grow deep roots and begin bearing big, juicy fruit. A bad year/yield now and then is inconvenient, but that tree isn’t going anywhere and will bear fruit for a long time to come.
So, in the end her ruling could backfire on Cannon and in more ways than one. If as I suspect some of Trump’s thunder is stolen this week she’ll be dead to him. Like The Federalist Society with Trump, with Cannon he’s gotten what he wanted from her which was no trial in Florida before the end of the year. If he won he could shut the whole thing down with or without her. Of course he wouldn’t have minded, and no doubt preferred she keep doing what she’s been doing which is string things out and run out the clock. AFTER election day if she wanted to make a big show and dismiss his case he’d have loved that. It would have taken a bit of attention from Project 2025 during the transition. Now it’s a different ballgame and no one can be sure how it will all play out.
Except for this: Even if not this week once Smith files his appeal this story is going to get ongoing attention. The kind that will undercut the “Trump Ordained by God” message. It gets watered down when his case was dismissed by an incompetent and clearly in the tank for Trump judge. That HE put on the federal bench! President Biden can work with that even before the convention and if fearful Democrats will just get on board WE can turn it into a BFD.
I realize this has been something of a dense read so for those of you who took the time I thank you.
Excellent Denis.
YES Well done Denis…
Oh what a tangled web etc. Samantha wiggle your nose and make the bad people go away…as if. Can there be no end to this insanity. Pendulum swing like a pendulum do….love that song. God help us and I definitely don’t mean Trump!
Fearful Democrats will not get on board for President Biden. If Jack Smith appeals it will end up at the Supreme Court which has already shown that they, like cannon, are all in for orange jeebus. This should be a no brainer, with cannon replaced but instead it will be a home run for the convicted felon. The courts will all rule in his favor, especially since he was “almost assassinated” by glass shards. At least in my opinion. I Don’t hold out any more hope for fairness in this country. President Biden can’t even run campaign ads without it being misconstrued that he’s trying to get fat felon assassinated. Even though supreme court gives him the authority.
No, Smith’s first appeal goes to the 11th Circuit Court. And THEY make the decision. It won’t go to SCOTUS because SCOTUS only hears appeals when it involves differing opinions from multiple circuit courts. (Smith filed that emergency appeal to SCOTUS because it involved the DC case and the Supreme Court essentially acts as the appellate court for cases involving the DC court.)
That’s not quite correct. SCOTUS can in fact skip waiting on an appellate decision to take a case or make a ruling. (It’s summertime and therefore “shadow docket” time and the Roberts Court has become infamous in legal circles for use/abuse of the shadow docket ability) It’s also a widely held belief that if two different Circuits issue different rulings on cases involving the same set of fact that SCOTUS is required to take up the matter and resolve which Circuit’s ruling will become that law of the land. In fact there is no legal or Constitutional requirement for them to do so and sometimes they haven’t. Crazy as it sounds (and is) SCOTUS can and has allowed states in different Circuits to be controlled by competing decisions. Most law is actually written at the appellate level. SCOTUS takes up only a fraction of the cases in which Cert is requested and the Roberts Court has taken up the lightest workload in modern history.
SCOTUS has from early on pretty much made up its own rules for how it will operate and they have at times displayed breathtaking hypocrisy. And poor judgement. Pun sort of intended.
Trump’s delay, delay, delay approach has served him well so far.
But it won’t after Biden wins.
It’s a gift. She’s dismissed the case on a pretrial motion, so double jeopardy won’t come into play when the case is re-activated. Also, Cannon has made a patently wrong ruling that will be overturned on appeal and give Smith every reason to ask for judicial reassignment. It’s everything he needs to reset his case tied up with a bow.
Well, the problem is that this “pretrial motion” was filed over a year after it should’ve been raised in the first place. If Trump’s lawyers had wanted to argue the Special Counsel was wrongly there, they should’ve brought it up at the beginning. They only brought it up well after there was any VALID reason to do so.
As SCOTUS itself has ruled (though we’ve seen that Thomas and Alito are willing to change their judicial opinions when it suits their partisan purposes), the role of Special Counsel is established law (in fact, initiated by Congress more than 50 years ago) and TRUMP didn’t have a problem with Attorney General Barr’s appointing John Durham as “Special Counsel.”
Be careful what you ask for…you just might get it.
Denis, You are missing the point. Can on wanted to clear the way for Trump’s nomination. Now he won’t have this case hanging over his head, at least for the duration of the nominating convention.
Minor correction, Denis, but it’s the 11th Circuit that oversees proceedings in Florida. The 4th Circuit has NO bearing on anything that Cannon does.
Oops. My bad. That’s a more than minor error on my part so I’ll fix it right now. Thanks for the catch.
The text still has: “Let’s say Smith, even if he can’t get it read this week drops his appeal in the 4th Circuit’s lap next week.”
“Thomas and Alito are old but not so old they won’t stay on the job hoping in 2028 they can be replaced by a Republican President (and Senate) with forty year old versions of themselves. Hell, maybe even Roberts too. None of them will, if President Biden’s elected be leaving the Court except in a casket.”
OR, they could leave after “Dark Brandon” unleashes the “immunity” powers that those members of the Court decided to afford Presidents as long as they were “official acts.” If an “official act” allows the President to try to thwart the peaceful transfer of power, then certainly the President can claim removing corrupt SCOTUS judges as an “official act” to help restore the integrity of SCOTUS.
Since the crimes in the indictment also occurred in New Jersey and obviously DC, can’t Smith also go to those courts?
“To a degree it might have caught Jack Smith by surprise … ”
Possibly the timing, but that’s about all. Commentators I follow were seeing this as likely even before Thomas’s little “hint.” In fact they were looking forward to it, precisely because it would at last open the door to the 11th Circuit.