Another BS Trump Boast Sleeps With The Fishes

I could literally walk out into the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any votes   Donald Trump

Actually this one has had a much longer shelf life than it deserved, mainly because for the longest time it appeared to be true, at least theoretically. But because Trump can never resist gilding the lily, he screwed it up. What Trump actually meant to say was, I could literally walk out in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any Trump voters. But no, Traitor Tot had to make it absolute.

And for quite a while there, that statement almost seemed bulletproof. (pun intended) Just look at a brief history of El Pendejo Ex Presidente’s behavior to see what I mean;

• Trump was impeached by the US House for literally trying to extort a bogus investigation into Biden from a free and independent country, Ukraine, but the gutless Senate GOP refused to convict him
• Trump set a record by being impeached for a 2nd time as he was headed out the door for inciting a violent insurrection to try to stay in power. Unfortunately the Senate GOP still hadn’t grown a pair, so he skipped again
• Since adjourning to Mar-A-Slobo, the randy lad was found civilly liable for sexual abuse, and twice found civilly liable for defamation against his accuser to the tune of $89 million
• His company was found guilty of fraud in a civil suit that led to fines, and his former COO, Allan Weisselberg going twice to Riker’s Island for perjury. To be clear, Trump personally was not charged in that suit
• Trump himself was charged civilly with fraud, which led to a guilty verdict, a $454 million fine, a court overseer for his business, and a loss of his and his sons licence to run real estate in New York for 2 years for the sons, and 5 years for Trump
• And the cherry on top. Over a course of several months Trump was indicted on 94 criminal counts in three different venues, two federal cases, and criminal cases in New York City and Fulton County, Georgia

And the band played on. In fact, here’s what made his utterance seem even more right on target. (again, pun intended) Trump immediately started using the federal court system to delay his trials until sometime after the second coming of Christ. And the nuts on the sundae? Every time Trump got indicted, his popularity ratings jumped, and his grassroots donations went through the roof. Maybe he was right.

Nope. With his Manhattan trial being a state criminal charge, Trump was unable to bog his case down into infinity in the federal court system. Try as he did locally, his criminal trial actually started pretty much in line with other normal Manhattan criminal defendants.

Here’s the McGuffin. In the weeks leading up to the start of his trial, national polling of registered voters showed that a whopping 23% of voters found that a Trump conviction would be a Break Glass moment that would make it impossible for them to vote for him. Pre trial polling showed Trump in most aggregate polls with anywhere from a 2.5-4.5 lead over Biden.

Glass Broken. Over the weekend on FUX News, GOP misfit toy strategist Karl Rove, once nicknamed Bush’s Brain, which tells you all you need to know, had to break the bad news, and there was little way to sugar coat it. With an oversized chart in his hand, Rove told the hosts, and the sheeple, Since May 30th, when Trump was convicted, there has been a noticeable shift away from Trump to Biden, averaging about +9 points for Biden, these being mostly independents.

A brief aside here for clarity, which will become important in the next paragraphs. When they talk about independents in polling, they’re normally referring to a duality. There are the true Independents, who do not affiliate with a party, and the mushy middle of soft GOP and Democratic voters, who are amenable to having their vote swayed.

As such, polls including the mushy middle can vary widely, as they change their minds on an almost weekly basis, depending which way the winds are blowing, and who whispers better sweet nothings into their ears. Historically Independent voters are notoriously late breakers, waiting until the last minute to make up their minds. If 9% of them are breaking away from Trump with 133 days to go until election day, it’s crippling for Trump, since once their minds are made up, they’re made up.

And worse yet for His Lowness, we already have empirical evidence of this. Months after Nikki Haley left the race, basically leaving the balance of the GOP primaries uncontested primaries, Haley is still skinning Trump for anywhere from 16-23%. And those aren’t even independent voters, they’re base GOP voters who bother to show up to vote in primaries. And if they don’t come back to the roost in the primaries after their candidate has already left the race, they sure as hell aren’t going to come home for the general election.

Another bullsh*t Trump boast goes dirt surfing. For while it may well be true that not a single one of Trump’s MAGA cocooned base would skate if they showed a video of trump ventilating a homeless undocumented immigrant in the middle of 5th Avenue, it turns out that there are plenty of voters out there that aren’t really into snuff flicks. At last count about 16-23% of moderate GOP primary base voters, and now throw in about 9% of Independent voters, whom Trump can’t even hope to win without. And if you think it’s bad now, just wait for the bump Biden gets when Traitor Tot is actually sentenced. Don’t touch that dial.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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