E (Expulsion) Day For Santos This Week. Gaetz Next?

Well, Congress is back from the Thanksgiving break. Before the break the House Ethics Committee released a devastating indictment of embattled Congress Critter George Santos. It included things that might wind up leading to a superseding indictment up in NY state and Santos is in plenty of criminal trouble up there already. For all that the House GOP still protected little Georgie given how slim their majority is. Santos had NO chance at re-election and even a credible Republican would/will be in for a fight after the way Santos hoodwinked voters in that district. The same would be true in a special election.

However, the Ethics Committee report was a bombshell and even some of the crazies in the Freedom Caucus know that they face a tough fight next year. At least 50 districts nationwide will be competitive regardless of what happens at the top of the ticket and at this point even some of the nutjobs are paying attention to the what passes for moderate GOPers who want to score some positive PR by kicking Santos to the curb. With Democrats running cover for Menendez over in the Senate this could actually win the GOP some House seats that otherwise would have been lost.

All of that means the motion filed before the break to expel Santos can come this week. Reports are that it could come on Wednesday but it will almost certainly happen before the week is out and Santos will be history. Even Santos himself admits when the vote happens he’ll lose and be out on his butt! So the already slim GOP majority will be trimmed from five to four. That will sting but might not really make a difference in the bigger picture even if a Democrat winds up in Santos seat soon. But don’t worry folks. Santos will be gone from Congress but not from the news as the criminal case against him will keep chugging along. So, there’s going to be plenty of chances to mock George Santos next year before he eventually becomes a footnote in political jokes history.

The thing is, the Ethics Report on Santos that is front and center at the moment has overshadowed another Ethics Report yet to be released. That particular investigation has been of FL Congress Critter Bratty Matty Gaetz and he’d been ticked off about it for a very long time now. He dodged prosecution when the best witness against him didn’t want to subject herself to all the attention and death threats that would have come her way. Still, even the prospects of the House Ethics Committee taking up the issue and conducting its own investigation caused panic in Gaetz,

He fought like hell to keep an investigation from even happening, and once it was underway has spent his effort into trying to shut it down.  It’s at the root of his war with former Speaker McCarthy. At best Gaetz, who was known to show pics of young (underage even?) gals on his cell phone to other House members even on the freaking floor meant he’d get some type of formal reprimand. Not that it would hurt his chances of winning re-election. Still, it was an embarrassment he didn’t want to suffer. Then, as the investigation proceeded it became clear the Ethics Committee was really digging into things. Witnesses can and do sometimes tell folks they’ve talked and what they said. So Gaetz knew that the committee was getting testimony every bit as damaging as criminal prosecutors had gotten.

Now, the Ethics Committee has no power to prosecute Gaetz if they have identified criminal wrongdoing. Oh, they can recommend turning over what they’ve developed to prosecutors but Gaetz has already dodged that bullet, at least down in his home state. (Could he have violated DC laws? Now there’s a question!) However, the Ethics Committee can recommend a formal censure which as I said won’t keep Gaetz from getting re-elected but would ensure he never gets the Party nod for a higher office. However, there’s another thing the Ethics Committee could recommend:

EXPULSION!

Prior to McCarthy’s ouster there were some Republicans saying that if the impending report turned out to be as bad as it was rumored to be that Gaetz should be expelled. Not many but the fact a few were willing to go on the record was telling because it meant plenty of others felt the same way. It’s also worth pointing out that even before the Gaetz engineered debacle in choosing a Speaker last January Gaetz had few friends in the House. If he was the House Version of “Ted Cruz – most hated Senator” before that ritual self-humiliation the GOP went through in January he was after.

The House has been a “Charlie Fox” all year thanks to Gaetz and his continual threats to use the rule he pushed through allowing a single Representative to file a motion to Vacate the Chair. It’s not like McCarthy even had the makings of being a strong and effective Speaker but thanks to Gaetz he, and by extension the entire House GOP was feckless and even weaker than one can imagine. Many were surprised that Gaetz didn’t file his motion after McCarthy cut the debt ceiling deal in June. Of course, by breaking his word on some of the terms McCarthy managed to hold out. But with the Sept. 30 deadline looming Gaetz saw a chance for a “twofer” – shut down the govt. (a la Ted Cruz – even though we know how THAT worked out for the GOP) and force McCarthy to, even if it meant breaking rules or even laws kill the ethics investigation.

McCarthy stood his ground so Gaetz retaliated and the calls to expel him started gaining steam as this article from the Pensacola News Journal reports.  It didn’t help that it took three weeks of still more GOP self-humiliation to pick a new Speaker. So Gaetz was in real trouble, assuming that Ethics Report is completed and released soon and is as bad (for Gaetz) as it’s rumored to be. However, it all suddenly got overshadowed by the SANTOS revelations! So as I started with when it come to expulsion Santos has been the focus. However, that’s going to be over soon and the focus will turn back onto Gaetz. Even a right wing publication like The Washington Examiner is reporting that Gaetz is at the bottom of a hill with an avalanche headed down at him. It even notes that Gaetz has lost support at home and is underwater in approval/disapproval ratings.

Now, it’s reasonable to ask whether House Republicans will expel not one but TWO of their own, especially in fairly short order. However, while Santos’ seat might be lost to a Democrat that’s not the case with Gaetz. NO Democrat, including Jesus could beat a Republican in that district. I’m not sure what the procedure is in FL but if allowed DeSantis will have find a disciple from that District and appoint him/her within a day or two or Gaetz’s expulsion. If a special election is required it will take place as soon as the law and logistics allows.

That seat is SAFE for the GOP and all of them, including and especially Gaetz himself knows it. And that my friends is why Matty is so terrified about the ethics investigation. He’s enjoyed the hell out of running around  being “Bratty Matty”, the a-hole who loves snapping people in the butt with a towel in the locker room. He’s relished making enemies in fact. Because he thought he was immune from consequences. Here’s what I think. Even if we only started seeing reports of it in Sept. I think for many months now people fed up with Gaetz and mad at him over what he put the Party through in Jan. have wished they could get some payback. I also think that as  hard as the House Ethics Committee has tried to keep their work secret (good for them!) as I noted it’s impossible to fully do so if some who appear before it share what transpired. That means Gaetz and McCarthy too for that matter weren’t the only one in September who knew the Ethics Committee was fixing to nail his ass to the wall.

If the rumors were true they’d have an excuse to rid themselves of someone as hated in the House as Cruz is over in the Senate. Gaetz had to know some of the chatter which is why he pressed McCarthy so hard as the budget deadline loomed to kill the investigation. When McCarthy refused, using the deal for the CR as cover he petulantly extracted revenge on McCarthy for not protecting him. I’m don’t possess pschic powers or have some extraordinary level of political insight. Hell, the village idiot can look at the situation and realize that Gaetz threw a tantrum because McCarthy wouldn’t cover his butt and got him tossed out as Speaker. Gaetz fellow Republicans can easily figure it out too.

He made them look really bad in January, and then turned right around and did it again in October.  And not for any “noble” conservative cause like budget discipline. Nope, they will see right through THAT smokescreen and know in their hearts what Gaetz true motivation was. I might be wrong but I think that Ethics Report is going to be as bad as Gaetz fears, and that within a couple of weeks he too will find himself on the losing end of an expulsion vote. The only question is when.

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