Ah, the Gathering! I can’t believe it’s finally here. Time has almost caught us, my old friend! Castiguere Highlander
Jesus, it’s taken forever, especially in the era of Trump, where every goddamn day is in dogs years, but we’ve finally almost completed the slog. The horses have rounded the far turn, and are thundering down the last stretch.
And as we get closer to election day, the polls assume an even more critical source of knowledge and prognostication, but only if you read them properly, especially the battleground state polls. That being said, there are now two critical numbers to look at when perusing the polls, especially the Senate polls, which in many cases will be tighter than the current national and in most cases battleground state polls. Let’s take a quick look at both of them.
Winning percentage – I’ve touched on this before, but as we wind down the clock, it only becomes even more critical, so I’m going to crush over it again. When looking at a poll, exactly what is the percentage that the leading candidate has? The magic number that you’re looking for if 50%. To win an election, you need 50% +1 of the total vote. Once a candidate breaches that line, his opponent can no longer win the election solely by picking up undecided voters, he now must “peel away” voters that are already voting for the other candidate, something that is incredibly hard to do. The higher the leader is over 50%, the less likely that the trailing candidate can overcome the deficit, since he would have to garner all of the undecided voters, and still peel away enough votes from his opponent.
The Undecideds – This one is a wee harder to find, since most networks only show the figures for each candidate, but if you look at the actual poll, you can easily find them, and it’s well worth it. Here’s how it works. Look at the support that each candidate has garnered. And then look underneath those two on the poll for the number of undecideds, or don’t knows that responded to the poll. Earlier in the race, those numbers represented the growth potential of each candidate. But this close to the election, they can almost allow you to predict the way the vote will go if the poll is accurate.
Here’s how it works. I just saw a poll today for Florida, I honestly don’t remember which one, but a reputable national pollster. It had Biden up 49-44, or a 5 point advantage. But when I looked a wee lower, I saw that only 3% of voters were left undecided. Simple math tells you that if the poll is accurate, Biden is going to win Florida, since Trump could pick up every single undecided voter in the poll, and he would still fall two points short of Biden’s total. In general, if the poll is reputable, if the lead that one candidate has over the other is larger than the number of undecideds, it’s hard to figure out how the underdog makes up the difference.
One thing to look at in any poll is the margin of error. Generally, the smaller the margin of error, the larger the pool of voters who were contacted and polled, leading to stability. But generally the system works with most reputable polls. If the leader has a lead more than the total number of undecideds, then it’s hard to find a path to victory for the underdog. And once a candidate tops 50%, it’s a real uphill battle for the underdog. Here endeth the lesson.
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GOTV. And the polls… become fact. No time for not being ruthless. Time for some old stomping. [Being football season, need an old Nebraska 128 – Trump University – (-12) … negative score you say! ‘It could happen 🙂 ‘]
Wonder what the polls say about a president on Dexamethasone? Wide awake 🙁 Glance a different twitter… and Julia Ioffe retweeted a thread. Can’t drink 24/7/52…
Good info to know!
It’s often been said in the past that the only poll that counts is the one on election day. Bluntly put it means the pre-election polling of registered or likely voters is a prediction and there’s room for error, but when the voters have all cast their actual votes we know for sure. Margin of error in pre-election polls, including last time when some hid their intention to vote for Trump (they didn’t want to but hated Clinton/Democrats even more than Trump) actually marking a ballot and casting it seals the deal. No fudging of intentions, and no takebacks or changesies. We can’t let up our intensity no matter how good things look. Not for a second. The GOP views voter suppression the way WE view the Preamble’s phrase “to create a more perfect union.” ALWAYS looking for a way to do more and do it better. Of course, since they got cocky over the past decade they are in trouble now and have gotten scared enough to be sloppy & telegraph their punches such as Barr having Durham out there desperately trying to create an “October Surprise against Biden, or literally screwing up the mail service to keep what will be a record number of mail in ballots from being cast. Desperation leads to stupid actions sometimes and it’s increasingly clear the GOP is increasingly desperate. Openly admitting a desire to throw the election into the courts and trying to ram through a new Justice to SCOTUS and saying they need her there (IOW she will OWE Trump and Republicans for attaining a lifelong dream and the payback will be overturning the will of the voters) shows just how desperate they are. So again, we need to keep focused like a laser on casting our own votes and getting others to do the same all the way through the closing of the last polling station on election day. Because there’s no telling what other shit they will dream up and try at this point. You live in Vega now Murf. It’s a “fight town” so to speak, and using the boxing analogy many a fighter that has been getting their ass kicked and losing big time on every scorecard has gotten lucky and thrown a wild haymaker punch and gotten lucky – knocking out the opponent that was kicking their ass all over the ring. We are at the stage of the fight where you have to keep the pressure on, but keep up the same focus that put the other guy in such a bad position because losing focus even for a second can lead to waking up to ask “what happened” as they see their battered and bloody opponent dancing around the ring in victory.
All the hand wringing about Joe winning debates etc. Is not necessary. Just like in sports, late in the game, when u are ahead, u don’t have to score. Just play good defense & don’t beat urself.
I think Trump is beating himself. He’s the one committing unforced errors.
Using the football analogy, “good” defense instead of the “prevent” defense is the key. You know the old saying – the only thing the prevent defense presents is winning. The defense needs to be smart yet aggressive enough to keep the other team from gaining big chunks of yardage without a challenge. At the same time, the offense can’t go into “prevent mode” either. Again, they need to be careful but they’ve got to advance the ball enough to make first downs (and maybe make a big play against a defense taking reckless chances) and keep the other team’s offense off the field. Using another sport, a pretty fair basketball coach and teacher had a philosophy along the lines of it being better to coach to win instead of coaching not to lose. Maybe you’ve heard of him. Guy by the name of Wooden. Won some national titles back in the day. Seriously though, Biden and the rest of us need to keep pressure on Trump and the GOP. They are most defininately back on their heels if not down on the ground and we need to keep them there. Good defense AND good offense are pretty much the same thing at this point – stick to basic things like health care, getting the country through the Covid crisis and how that relates to jobs, and healing the country. The more Trump acts like himself while Biden and Harris keep their cool the easier that last one will be! He’s his own worst enemy so let him run his mouth and twitter thumbs and shoot himself in the foot – and when an opening comes give him a nudge to go off on one of his rants that will keep voters he and the GOP have lost during his tenure from returning to the conservative fold.
“It had Biden up 49-44, or a 5 point advantage. But when I looked a wee lower, I saw that only 3% of voters were left undecided. Simple math tells you that if the poll is accurate, Biden is going to win Florida, since Trump could pick up every single undecided voter in the poll, and he would still fall two points short of Biden’s total.”
Except, Murf, “simple math” would also point out that 49 + 44 + 3 = 96 meaning there’s an uncounted 4% out there. Since you don’t recall the exact poll, it’s hard for us to check. *POSSIBLY* that missing 4% are split among “other candidates” (and even “none of the above” leading to write-in votes) but that 4% HAS to be counted somewhere. Even if–as you suggest–Trump picks up every one of those 3% “undecided” voters, we still have 4% missing. It does help that Florida doesn’t actually require a 50% + 1 for a candidate to win the state and its electoral votes. In 2000, both Dubya and Gore received less than 49% of the vote (Dubya got 48.85% and Gore got 48.84%) and in 2016, both Trump and Clinton failed to crack the 50% mark (Trump got 49.02% and Clinton got 47.82%) so, ultimately, it probably won’t matter about that missing 4% as long as they’ve chosen NOT to vote for Trump for any reason. If, however, they’re still potentially “undecided” voters but chose not to disclose that in the poll, we may have a problem.
Using your own point about FL and Bush & Gore I’ll address your point just to paint a fuller picture. Yes, the numbers don’t add up IF you only count the major Party candidates. However, remember another person who figured prominently in FL in 2000? Ralph Nader was the Green Party candidate and convinced a distressing number of people there was NO difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates, and in a special bit of irony as the GREEN Party candidate that Al Gore of all people wouldn’t be any better on the environment than Bush! Nader got close to a hundred thousand votes as I recall. Pat Buchannan (Reform Party) and the Libertarian candidate (can’t recall his name) combined for about 35k more. An assortment of other third Party candidates got from a handful to two or three thousand votes.
Third Party candidates are the answer to the question raised in the point you bring up. They will always be there – the Libertarian Party in particular and FL is a state where they will get a small but noticeable chunk of voters – one to two percent. Add in others and the missing voters you ask about are there, and unlikely to change at the last minute and vote for a major Party candidate. They are third Party for a reason and pretty iconclastic in their thinking on this.
Saw this early this morning: voters 65 and up have moved from 4% for Biden to 27% for Biden following the debate last week. Can’t wait to see where they land now following the hospitalization, the crazy medical talk and the crazier stunt endangering SS agents. Thinking this first big swing is due to a very important reality–older folks maybe more so than those so much younger recognize cognitive decline much faster. And know those in their circle who have suffered through it or are in its grip now.
My own Mom suffered from dementia and it was a very scary thing to watch; ditto a favorite aunt on my Dad’s side. Can’t even imagine how many millions of Americans maybe at least above 50 or so have had this experience. And as the demographic skews older, has to be even higher. All of us know far more personally just how dangerous cognitive decline can be and we sure as heck don’t want a guy in the WH with it.
Gosh 27%. That means 73% have their head up their arse. There are minimum 211k dead folks, a large percentage older folks. Add in the end of democracy & his plan to gut social security & my peer group (I’m 67), are a bunch of chickens voting for the butcher. Look aholes. Stop proving older folks can’t find their arse with a note pinned to your shirt. Sorry about ur mom.
The Brit ‘Sunday Express’ came out with this gem:
“Trump has 48 percent of the popular support over former Vice President Biden’s 45 percent.
In the key swing states the gap is even bigger with 49 percent for Trump to 42 percent for Biden giving the incumbent US President an almost unassailable seven point lead.”
I should point out that the Sunday Express is in constant conflict with the Sunday Mail as to which is furthest right wing.
The source for the poll is given as the ‘Democracy Institute’ (which also runs polls for Breitbart – quelle surprise)