Talk about waiting for the next shoe to drop, or maybe we’re waiting on a tape measure, ya spose? In the strange world that is America, circa 2023, one billionaire social media giant has challenged another billionaire social media giant to a cage match. That was strange enough, but then the ante got raised to a literal dick measuring contest.

New Republic:

Elon Musk has decided that the only way to determine which billionaire tech bro can reign supreme is to have a literal dick measuring contest.

You read that right.

As you can gather, normal minded people are having problems parsing the fact that this conversation is even taking place. But indeed it is.

The following is an excerpt from Josh Marshall’s Backchannel newsletter, dated July 5. Threads launched the following day and got 70 million signups in the first 24 hours. This is as good an analysis of the Twitter Clones War as anything I’ve seen.

Most of the drama about Musk and Twitter over the eight months since he took over the site has focused on his antic involvement in the online culture wars, a kind of public midlife crisis played out on the stage of a $44 billion vanity purchase. Probably the best way to understand Musk is that he’s another rich middle-aged divorced guy whose hot new girlfriend is white nationalism. But there’s a whole other part of the drama. He also made draconian staffing cuts, dramatically reduced the core technical capacity to keep the site online and also simply refused to pay various bills, figuring that he and the site are big enough that vendors won’t have the nerve to cut off services. While this was going on Musk’s public antics have savaged the company’s advertising revenues. They come together in a self-reinforcing cycle of budget cuts and revenue shortfalls. Since Twitter is no longer a public company it’s hard to know precisely what mix of expedients led to this weekend’s drama. But that big picture is clear enough.

The ongoing drama since last December has spawned a number of Twitter clone sites offering a refuge to those who want to escape Musk’s Twitter. But each has come up against the same challenge. What makes Twitter Twitter is that everyone’s there. It’s a classic case of inertia and network effects, a basic problem of collective action. Even if most of the site’s users would like to be somewhere else, those network effects keep most of them locked in place. The increasing instability of the site’s infrastructure has that effect even on those who are indifferent to Musk’s politics and conspiracy theories -— which is certainly the bulk of the site’s users. Most of the sites also lack the vast sums of money required to succeed at it. Musk has clearly relied on this fact and mostly he’s been on firm ground doing so. […]

But now something’s different. In the background, clearly sensing the expanding opportunity, Meta (née Facebook) has been prepping a Twitter replacement. Just as this absurd chaos was enfolding over the weekend they announced that “Threads” will go live tomorrow, July 6. It’s hard to know just how this will play out. But if anyone has the cash and network power to put Twitter out of its misery, it’s Meta. Unsurprisingly, since Facebook is terminally uncool and now basically the social network of old people, Threads will be launched as a discussion app that is part of Instagram. It will be its own separate app but in brand and possible account terms it will be part of Instagram.

This opens a number of possibilities. Numerous celebrities have millions or tens of millions of followers on Instagram. If they can simply port that clout to Threads, or if that’s a quick and relatively simple transition, that really does make it a potentially existential, near-term threat to Twitter.

Your guess is as good as mine how it will pan out. I tend to side with the people who think there won’t be a Twitter replacement. Even Twitter also won’t be the Twitter replacement. It’s probably on a glide path to Friendsterization where Musk acolytes and alt-righters will continue to taunt and own an ever-dwindling number of normal people who keep logging in. You’ll have fragmentation without a single place where everyone is. But whatever … I’m not here to do any big think on that front. What’s notable to me is that Elon Musk is clearly the best thing that ever happened to Mark Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg and Facebook became the symbol, if not always the reality, of everything bad about the platforms and social media: the threats to privacy, monopoly, hate speech, inequality, election subversion, society-wide short attention spans. But Musk — through his mix of billionaire grievance and adolescent rage — has managed to make Zuckerberg now appear to be a comparatively benign figure.

I mean, think about it: His big pitch in 2020 was personally cutting a check for various local governments to fund their pandemic emergency election work. That may have been PR to make up for the disaster of 2016. But in comparison to Elon Musk it looks visionary. And there are worse things than doing good things at least in part for the PR boost. There was never anything about Zuckerberg that made you think he set out to do bad things for the sake of it. That’s been Musk’s calling card with Twitter: transgressive behavior, owning the libs. After all the essence of the whole story, the root of everything that followed, is that he was motivated to purchase Twitter because of his enmity toward the site’s most prominent users. Like Trump, predation is his thing.

I’ve seen tons of people cheering on Threads and hoping it deals a death blow to Twitter because Musk is such a loathsome and dystopic figure. No shame: I’m cheering Zuckerberg too. This may be Musk’s greatest accomplishment — making people cheer on Mark Zuckerberg, in its own way a more improbable and challenging feat than creating Space X or developing Tesla.

Threads has reported 100 million signups in the past four days.

This is a case of first impression. Nobody knows what’s going to happen. There’s only one certainty and that is, if Twitter somehow collapses, hits the iceberg metaphorically speaking, Threads is there as the lifeboat.

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6 COMMENTS

  1. On tonight’s evening news they said Threads has reached 100 million users. Looks like twitter’s a dead bird. I think all of Musk’s mismanagement had it headed that way and Zuckerberg just gave people and exit ramp. A quite convenient one, at that, since their Instagram followers can be carried over.

  2. Someone please explain how someone who dumps 30 billion by destroying a company he just bought, and then tries to save what’s left by challenging his competitor to a dick-measuring contest got to be the richest guy on the planet.

    Is he a joke the gods are playing on us?

    12
  3. I won’t speak to the dick measuring contest. There are TMI questions and Brain Bleach might not be handy for everyone. However the cage match? I think it’s a case of Musk should be careful about what he wishes for. We’ve seen pictures of Musk and he’s a pretty typical dude for his age, not fat but if not going to seed looking a little worn and dare I say it soft with hints of getting a little pudgy. Average height. Maybe. Zuck on the other hand, unless I’m misinformed is nothing like the way he was portrayed in The Social Network. There he was depicted as a smallish, almost mousy type of guy. In reality Zuck is (I believe) taller than average, even taller than me and I’m 6’4″. Also in decent shape. If that’s true, I rather doubt either is enough of a pugilist to truly hurt the other but Zuck would be able to humiliate Musk in a physical fight. Bigger, stronger and more fit.

    I dare say it would be worth watching even.

    The dick measuring thing? Not so much.

  4. Musk probably looks for support similar to the AWB (Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging/Afrikaner Resistance movement).
    While it doesn’t appear that he was an actual member, his sympathies certainly lie in that direction.

    AWB emblem – look familiar?

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