Look, I’m right there with Volodymyr Zelensky, I get him. After all, he’s trying to ward off a totally unprovoked assault on his country, and he is fighting for their very right of self existence.
Memo to President Zelensky. I’m with you man! I’m a hot tempered Irishman. If I were President instead of Biden, I would be ordering the air force to take out Russian radar installations in Russia, and telling them to turn that 40 mile convoy into the worlds’ largest auto graveyard. But you know what Mr President? I would be all by myself, NATO wouldn’t have my back. Nor should they.
Because NATO is the ultimate mutual defense alliance. It was formed in the years after WWII, and the premise is strength out of many. And while the vaunted article 5 says that an attack on any NATO alliance country is an attack on all NATO alliances, that is purely defensive. The only time article 5 has been invoked was after 9/11, when the United States was attacked.
And while the NATO charter calls for immediate, universal defensive support in the case of an attack on a member nation, there is no clause in the NATO charter that calls for universal response if a member country takes offensive action against a country that pisses them off. That would be a dispute against the two opposing sides.
The real problem here is that Ukraine’s repeated request that the US and NATO institute a no fly zone over Ukraine is a misnomer. The only way to institute a no fly zone is to enforce it. And that would mean the US or NATO risking shooting down Russian fighters over sovereign Ukraine airspace, nothing to do with NATO. Besides, the major damage in Ukraine right now is being done by Russian ground artillery and missiles, which aren’t covered by a no fly zone. What Zelensky wants is for NATO and the US to hammer Russian artillery and tank positions on the ground, which would be a naked act of aggression. And NATO is a purely defensive alliance.
Look, I bleed in my heart every time I see the images from Ukraine. But the simple fact of the matter is that Putin has found his sweet spot. As long as Vlad the Imp contains his atrocities within the borders of Ukraine, there are limits as to what NATO can do about it. After all, a crazed Serbian separatist started WWI by shooting Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria. The world can’t afford to make that mistake again. But on the plus side, the way things are going right now, Zelensky might just win this one without the help.
I think he understands the limits of NATO. By asking for what he knows they cannot do, he encourages them to think outside of the box about what they can. Let’s face it, the Ukrainian refugees, while being warmly welcomed now, will be a rebuke to all the Europeans as to why they aren’t doing more as this war drags on. I imagine Europe, having lived thru Chernobyl, is more than a little nervous w/ Russia controlling it and another nuclear plant. Biden is handling this right by letting European countries take the lead (or appearing to) in deciding what to do and when. I also think the fact that they are already having “peace talks” is a sign that Putin is trying to find an off-ramp.
I agree with you about Biden’s handling of this. Foreign policy really is his stronger suit (less enchanted with domestic policy so far). And we all know how hard it is to stand firm in the face of so much suffering when every fiber of you wants to stamp it out. And Europe, given its history of two world wars basically wiping it out last century, is surely more nervous than we and more knowledgeable about what to do when. I am proud of Germany and Poland and the rest. I hope we DO in FACT have their backs when the first Russian tank roles over the Polish border! Because the only way to stop a monster is to stop him dead in his tracks!
Murf – did you come across this hot-tempered Irishman?
https://www.independent.ie/videos/ive-done-my-bit-driver-of-the-truck-that-crashed-into-the-gates-of-the-russian-embassy-in-dublin-41420550.html
Frankly, I’ve been wondering if this is political gamesmanship with a purpose. Zelenskyy has proven himself to be quite brave, saavy and adroit beyond anyone’s expectations, possibly even his own. And his people have proven to be masters of information warfare with a national image to maintain. A big part of that image is Ukraine’s independence, accepting outside help but doing the actual work. So what better way to show how much of an underdog you are then by asking for a measure that a) has too much risk and b) will never come? You draw a line between yourself and your suppliers while encouraging the continued flow of needed goods.
As was said for the several years, watch what they do, not what they say. And remember that we have only a limited window on what we can see…as much by design as by circumstance.
NATO might not have anything to do at the moment but if that guy who was NPR the other day is correct and Poland has a tactical missile/nuke lobbed at it they would have no choice but to get involved. That’s not a good thing tho’ and I hope putie gets taken out way before it gets to that point.
Ukraine’s ground anti-aircraft defenses have been one of the success stories of this war. They have taken down a very respectable number of Russian planes and a considerably larger number of helicopters. The Russians do not control the skies, but they are able to use the skies to inflict serious damage. What the Ukrainians need more than anything is not an enforced no-fly zone or MIGS from Poland or anywhere else (because they are very vulnerable). What they need is more surface-to-air missiles, which are extremely effective against Russian aircraft. The logistics of receiving them are also relatively easy.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/12/us-nato-allies-rush-weapons-shipment-to-ukraine
Murph, this is the best explanation — simplest is most likely — I’ve heard too. The irony is just icing on the cupcake. This is truly an international game of chicken — and possibly Russian roulette — same principles. And Putin hit the engine without knowing the condition of his car. But he gets more dangerous to the world with every passing day. And he will step over the red line if he can.
Question: Is there no way for some errant missile to land on Moscow? or his house? Seriously. With some oops apologies later. Or not.
Good thing you aren’t President because DC and NYC would be a nuclear ash pit right now, along with the rest of the world. Your poor heart bleeding would result in the end of humanity.
So your Irish heart bleeds over Ukraine. Did it bleed over Iraq? Libya? Ect., ect., ect.?
NATO isn’t a defensive pact anymore. That ended with their wars of aggression.
Somewhere in the back of your brain is the memory of what the Brits did to Ireland. Still, you condone the aggression that set the Russians off in the first place.
You would turn the world into a nuclear waste pit.
Your cred is shred.