The dialogue amongst Republicans right now about Brett Kavanaugh is not so much about the nominee himself, as it is about what he represents as a key piece in the political chess game. Kavanaugh was thought to be a shoo in, but the confirmation process went to hell right away when Kamala Harris and Corey Booker refused to act like dogs in learned helplessness experiments, so conditioned to defeat and punishment that instead of fighting they just stay in the corner. Instead, they came out swinging. Kavanaugh’s snub of the Parkland father went viral and then that was eclipsed, incredibly, by the college professor coming forward to tell the story of an attempted rape. This is now a completely different game and a very high stakes one. The Kavanaugh confirmation is being analyzed in crass political terms, as the Republicans analyze options and do damage control. Daily Beast:
There has been no talk within the ranks about pulling the nomination and going with an equally conservative—if not less controversial—pick, even if it would remove a major complication from the Republican agenda just 50 days before the midterm elections. To do so, aides and operatives insist, would be a disaster of much greater magnitude: inviting Democrats to launch more aggressive challenges to future judicial nominees and depressing the very base of conservative voters needed in November.
“A withdrawal would be disastrous for Trump,” one pro-Trump political operative who worked on the president’s 2016 campaign said. “You take away the whole ‘We’re sick of winning’ message. That’s a huge, marquee, top-line loss.” […] One senior administration official said that pulling Kavanaugh at this moment would be akin to Team Trump signing its own political “death warrant.” […]
“There will be huge consequences for any Republican who backs away,” and who gives the Democrats “any lane to scuttle this nomination,” warned Matt Schlapp, a prominent Trump surrogate, Kavanaugh friend, and chair of the American Conservative Union. “We will score the vote on Judge Kavanaugh… and we will hold them accountable.”
The calculus is simple: if the nomination is pushed through before the election, the Republicans will likely lose the Senate. That’s a big price to pay, but weighed against control of the Supreme Court for the next thirty years, it’s pretty much a no brainer. Or, it’s quite possible that a few outgoing Republicans, such as Flake and Corker, may vote down Kavanaugh. It’s also possible that Murkowski and Collins have more of a handle on their constituents’ outlooks and their own political futures than the GOP ward bosses do, and they’ll vote nay.
This is not the fixed game that the Republicans thought that it was. The only sure thing at this point is that the next few moves on the board are going to be really interesting. Don’t discount the nomination being withdrawn if there are more blindsiding occurrences. Evangelical wingnut Robert Jeffress (he who has compared Trump’s travails to the persecution of Jesus) was consulted by the White House on this matter and he said, “There is no reason to expend political capital on someone who is unconfirmable.” His opinion is of import here because it’s his slice of Trump’s base that Kavanaugh was meant to appease.
Anything can happen here. Stay tuned.
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Won’t happen.
Where in Hell do you get your political knowledge and instincts? Kavanaugh WILL be speedily confirmed. Say hello to Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh and get used to it. Trump ALWAYS wins in the end. Always.
Trump himself said only this morning that after hearing what Dr. Ford has to say he would “decide” which begs the issue that maybe there is a way to put a conservative judge on the Court without this level of a bloodbath at the polls.
If I thought Trump was some unstoppable force of nature, rather than a bizarre anomaly of the democratic process, I would have to stop breathing.