Checking out primary results tonight something that’s been in my mind for a while has come to the forefront. We know the fear inspired grip Trump has on the GOP and knowing he could end their careers (and in some cases has) by endorsing someone else in the GOP primaries has kept them largely in line. However we’re halfway through June and well past halfway in the primary season. There aren’t that many states left where Trump can kill Republican’s careers. As the summer progress the power of his threats will diminish. The small handful who’ve stood up to him might have a lot more company before long.
Ok, it might be wishful thinking on my part and I’m well aware there are Trump loyalists (if not openly MAGA) in both the House and Senate. Having not given Trump a reason to go after them they were and have remained safe. However we’re at a point in the calendar where it’s worth thinking about four types of GOP Congress Critters.
First there’s the group I just mentioned. Second are those that long ago decided they were done. Some left already but some (my Senator Thom Tillis comes to mind) have decided to serve out their terms. The third are people Trump got primaried out of their seats and won’t even be on the ballot this fall. Lastly we have those in swingy states/districts who made it through their primary but know unless they start creating real opposition to Trump they will be toast when the general election voting is done.
It’s these latter three groups we should keep an eye on. Not a one of them wants to see Democrats take control of either chamber of Congress. Being in the minority sucks. More so in the House but it still sucks for Senators despite the filibuster still being a tool. Those on the ballot, even in the Senate which ordinarily would almost certainly remain under GOP control there is serious apprehension, if not panic about what they are facing. Those who aren’t hard core Trumpies and in safe red seats don’t like the prospect of learning how much being in the minority is any more than those facing viable challenges.
House member Tom Massie who’s been a continual thorn in Trump’s side lost his primary and on multiple things speaks out and votes against Trump. Over in the Senate Tillis’s bark is too often worse than his bite. I mention these two and note there are others because not many in the three groups I’m writing about have said or done little in opposition to Trump. They know there’s already a box of Trump anchors their Democratic opponents will be hanging around their necks. Worse, they can be sure there will be more.
All this is why I think you should take a look at what’s left on the primary calendar. You can do so at 270 to Win. They list both Democrat’s and Republican’s remaining primaries and runoffs. Yes, at a glance it looks like a lot is still to be decided, starting with a week from now with primaries in Maryland (Democrats will be in great shape afterwards, New York where there are plenty of GOP Congress Critters with much to worry about both then and in November, Utah which is a place where Republicans shouldn’t have any worries but now do (thanks to Hegseth’s boneheaded attack on Mormonism) and a runoff in South Carolina which bucked Trump by refusing to gerrymander away a black Democratic Congressman’s seat. Hmmm.
After that we’ll have four weeks of single state stuff – two full primaries and two GOP runoffs. The next big day will be August 4 with five primaries: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington. Michigan is the one to watch. However in all those states, Trump could potentially hurt GOP candidates (even in the primary) than he can help. And an incumbent who wants the Party to move past Trump will be in a helluva fix. In three of those states sucking up enough to get his endorsement will mean losing in the general.
The same will be true on the last big (four states) a week later on Aug. 11. I know I’m already boring you so I’ll shut up with details. My point is that although there are still plenty of primaries and runoffs left, with each passing Tuesday Trump’s ability to threaten the GOP into compliance wanes. Perhaps even more importantly the consequences of what’s already taken place have to be hitting home. Trump got his preferred candidate for Senate in Georgia tonight. Barring something unusual Democrat John Ossoff should be in strong shape to keep his seat. Over in Texas Senate Republicans with the possible exception of Ted Cruz are livid Trump pushed Ken Paxton to victory in the primary. Democrat James Talarico truly does stand a real chance of for the first time in a generation being a Democrat winning a statewide race in the Lone Star State.
I’ve also just seen on MS NOW that one of the five seats the Texas GOP gerrymandered in their favor is in serious danger of flipping to a Democrat! (Oops!) I can’t help but wonder if some (if only partially) sane GOPers who want Trump gone but have been too afraid to speak out will say screw it. Especially if he’s leaning towards or has already endorsed a primary challenger. They might just decide to go down swinging. If the handful who’ve already spoken out grows into the high single digits I believe it will snowball. There are a LOT of Republicans who know how much Trump baggage they will be carrying when the general election voting begins.
Even if they know they won’t be around after it’s done they have friends that will still be serving in elected office. AND actual old-school Republican stuff they want to see maintained. They will also be looking past 2026, and the terrifying (to them) prospect of DEMOCRATS holding the ‘trifecta’ (the WH, Senate and House) they currently hold. Standing up to Trump now is, if they truly care about more than themselves a political hill worth dying on. If they don’t their worst fears will be realized.
I realize I’ve rambled on too much but I think this is important. Serious matters will be coming before the Congress this summer and every vote for what Trump wants is a vote that will be used against every GOP candidate this fall. Trump clearly is past caring but it only takes a half-dozen more or less reliable Republicans in the Senate and ten or so in the House to pump the brakes hard on Trump. If they don’t they will either lose or learn how much it truly does suck to be in the minority.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
