Why Ukraine Sinking The Moskva Is So Important

Well, it’s official. Early this afternoon PDT, the Russian Military confirmed that their Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, had sunk. Being Russians, they started with a lie, and they ended with a lie.

Yesterday, they announced that the ship hadn’t been struck, but had a sudden catastrophic fire break out on board, forcing evacuation. I remarked yesterday what bullshit that was, that a ship made almost entirely of non flammable materials, with the flammable materials isolated and easily contained, could break out.

Today the Russians gilded the lily, in 24k gold. They still stick to the fire story, but now claim that the fire set off some munitions, which blew a hole in the hull, causing the ship to sink in heavy seas. This is too stupid to be believed. First of all, nobody with 4 firing neurons puts the munitions anywhere near the hold. Not only to prevent this kind of accident, but more likely, having an artillery shell, missile or torpedo strike the hull at the munitions dump, and the resulting explosion gives you a new hit movie, Titanic II, the search for stupid wrecks.

Not one but three military experts on MSNBC today gave differing reasons why Ukraine sinking the Moskva is so important. First, Retired Admiral James Stavridis, former NATO Supreme Commander chimed in. I don’t know what the problem is with the Russian navy, but they’re clearly no more competent than the Russian army! Dear God! In your first year at Annapolis, it is drilled into your head that you never let anybody even lay a glove on your flagship. It’s the command center for your fleet.

Truer words were never spoken. The Moskva wasn’t just a battleship, it was the command and communications center for the entire Black Sea fleet. Every order and communication went through the Moskva. As a result, the rest of the Black Sea fleet is now more than 80 miles off the shore of Ukraine, to prevent any more surprises.

But it gets even worse. Because the Moskva was also the anti aircraft radar hub for the entire coastal region, including Crimea. This may well leave gaping holes in the Russians being able to detect aircraft and helicopters in the region. If that’s true, then look for the possibility of Ukraine sending fighters and attack helicopters out to missile the artillery batteries shelling the shit out of Mariupol.

Retired army 4 star general Barry McCaffrey took a turn at the plate. He said that while this was a devastating blow to the morale of the Russian navy, it was an almost equally heavy blow to the entire Russian military. Because thanks to Russian propaganda, the Moskva was an icon of Russian military might. It was indestructible, and all enemy ships fled upon sight of it. With the ship now sunk, not in glorious battle, but by a couple of lousy Ukrainian missiles, Russian troops are starting to wonder just what else they’ve been told is bullshit.

But to my mind, the best and most eloquent case was made by congressman Seth Moulton. Moulton was a Marine 1st Lieutenant who commanded a platoon in Iraq. He was so effective because he spoke plainly and clearly, just another grunt in the line of fire. And Moulton made two critical points.

First, remember one thing. The Russians have a top down command tier. They don’t have an NCO structure, they’re not trustworthy. Russians follow the last order they’re given until they get a new one. Moulton, as a 1st Lieutenant was an NCO, a Non Commissioned Officer. It was his platoon. And if anything happened to Moulton, his sargent, another NCO would rally the platoon and carry on. Thanks to the US and NATO, Ukraine has a wonderful NCO structure, which is why they’re kicking the Russians ass all over the place.

But Moulton spoke passionately about his time as a Lieutenant, commanding troops. He imparted that at various times, there were plenty of Marines under his command that didn’t necessarily even agree with the US being in Iraq, much less the wisdom of the mission. As command officer, it was Moulton’s job to buck them up, put the steel in their spine, and rally them to the mission. After all, agree or not, this is what they signed up for! The Russians have no such familiar, lower level officers to do that job. They’re free to bitch and grumble to each other. And maybe desert.

Then Seth Moulton told a purely personal story of revelation. He spoke of the shock and dismay that overtook him the first time he saw an Abrams M-1 tank blow up before his eyes. From his earliest days in basic training, and on into Iraq, he was told that the Abrams tank was pretty much indestructible. The sight of an Abrams in flames in front of his eyes shook his faith, and stalled his platoon. Moulton had to put his personal feelings aside, rally his troops, and carry on. Again, the Russians have no such bulwark.

If you’re looking for a common thread, here it is. As I’ve written, I’ve played hockey games with a trip to the postseason on the line, and I’ve played plenty where you were just finishing out the season. And having it all on the line is always better. And at the moment, there is no starker comparison that we can draw between the two forces.

On the Russian side, the majority of their army are conscripts. Mainly, kids serving out their two years before rotating back to civilian life. The vast majority of them were lied to by their command, told they were going on a training exercise, only to find themselves in the middle of a hot war zone. They don’t know why they’re there, they have friends and relatives living in Ukraine, and no one to tell them why they’re fighting.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians are like a 5 year old on a two bag Snickers sugar high. Not only did they stall the Russians initial invasion by a far superior force, not only did they successfully defend Kyiv from being taken over, not only did they push the Russian invaders back across the border into Russia and Belarus, and not only did they conduct a successful lightning strike 25 miles into Russia to destroy a fuel dump, now they’ve apparently sunk the Russian’s Black Sea flagship.

And it gets better yet. President Zelensky just called up 200,000 territorial troops, a Ukrainian farm team equivalent.  MSNBC reported today that the US is already scrambling to get 200,000 kevlar helmets, kevlar vests, small arms, and shoulder fired missiles over to Ukraine with which to equip the territorials before they head to the front. And with that influx of troops, military experts now agree that the Russian forces and the Ukrainian forces are pretty much even Stephen.

In war, as in sports, so much boils down to two simple things, momentum, and morale. And right now, the Ukrainians have cornered the market on both. And while they’re fighting for their homeland and existence, and have shown their battlefield adaptability, once the Butcher of Syria issues an order, if the Ukrainians block it, there’s nobody to tell the Russian troops what to do next. How long before they say Fuck it!, and boogie for home? Don’t touch that dial.