Everybody needs something to believe. I believe I’ll have another beer.
Yesterday I wrote about how Trump was using his remaining power in the GOP to get revenge on GOP state officials who displeased him in the aftermath of the 2020 election. But there’s a very real angle that I didn’t go into last night, and it well may be critical in 2022.
When people talk about their frustrations with Washington, it all boils down to the insane tribalism of the place. Both sides have backed into their corners and won’t even look at each other, much less talk. But here’s the thing that nobody talks about. Nobody ever said that there can only be two tribes!
The first poll came out today for the 2022 Georgia GOP gubernatorial primary. And the poll shows the two locked in a dead heat, so already Trump’s endorsement is having an effect. But here’s the real problem for Trump and the GOP. Tribalism. Kemp and Raffensperger in Georgia, Abbott in Texas, and Ducey in Arizona. All of them were die hard Trump supporters. Trump endorsed and campaigned for all of them, and they repaid him by using their offices to back his insane anti mask and vaccine policies. Trump voters voted for these four. And now Trump wants their heads on a platter.
Actually, that poll is terrible news for Trump. He’s used to snapping his fingers and his Trombies jump. With Trump’s endorsement of Perdue, whom he trashed when he lost the Senate runoff, Perdue should be up by 10 points. Clearly a large block of Kemp supporters are not ready to dump him just because Glorious Bleater throws a snit. Tribalism.
Kemp has Perdue. Raffensperger has a challenger Trump backs. Abbott is likely to face carpetbagger Allen West, and Trump is on the fence about his support. Ducey is termed out in Arizona, but wants to run for Senate against Mark Kelly, but Trump has already sworn to support a primary opponent. These candidates will savage each other for months, while the Democrats unify and collect campaign ad fodder to use against whomever crawls out alive.
Here’s why I keep referring to tribalism, and why it is so important and why it’s so important here. All 4 of these were faithful Trump loyalists, and all are incumbents who have a solid core of support. And that Georgia poll tends to indicate that core supporters are not ready to just jump ship because His Lowness has a Trumper tantrum.
Does anyone hear remember the 2016 Democratic Presidential primary? Clinton v Sanders. A bitterly fought campaign, with Sanders raising complaints of DNC favoritism for Clinton. The tribalism was complete. And when Clinton prevailed, only to lose to Trump in a stunner, the recriminations were immediate. Right or wrong, Clinton supporters accused a hard core base of Bernie bros of putting tribalism before party, sitting out the election, and costing Hillary the presidency.
Look for that to happen here. Kemp, Raffenspreger, Abbott and Ducey, all are incumbents, they shouldn’t even gave a challenger! But Trump is hell bent for leather to take them out for defying him. And it could end up costing the GOP dearly.
Georgia, Texas, and Arizona share something. They are all either purple or rapidly turning purple. Gerrymandering doesn’t help in a statewide election, only the statewide vote matters. If these Trump inspired primaries create a shit load of hurt fee-fees, and blocs of the loser’s base sit out the general election, the united Democrats could find themselves picking up statewide seats they didn’t expect for at least another cycle or two. News Flash for The Cheeto Prophet. You fucking broke it, you fucking bought it!
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