What can I say? This town loves a winner Map to the Stars Eddie Escape From LA
I’ve talked before about the hidden ads of Kamala Harris’s taking over the top of the ticket of expanding the map to include states like North Carolina and Georgia, both of which were deemed out of reach when President Biden was topping the ticket.
But that never included anything like this. Back in June, the Des Moines Register poll, conducted by gold standard pollster Anne Selzer had Trump clobbering Biden by 18 points. Another identical poll in September had Trump’s lead down to 4 points.
But the last Register poll, released last night, shows a stunning reversal, with Harris now leading Traitor Tot 47-44. That’s a 21 point swing in 4.5 months. And I’ll say this the thing I like about Selzer’s polling methodology is that it’s old fashioned. She doesn’t build pre-poll models and then try to make the results fit the model. She gets a pool, takes the damn poll, tabulates the results, and releases them. This often puts her at odds with other polls, but more often than not she’s right, especially in Iowa.
Can Harris actually win Iowa? I dunno. We’ll find out. For a couple of reasons.
But on Tuesday, won’t we? I don’t see why not, considering the mammoth number swing in four months. But even if she doesn’t, and El Pendejo ex Presidente squeeks out a narrow win, the damage may already be done
And apparently I’m not the only one who doesn’t find it outside the realm of possibility that Dorothy isn’t in Kansas anymore. Projection guru Larry Sabato, the head of the UVA political science school had a couple of surprising things to say on MSNBC today with Alex Witt.
Sabato said three things that stuck out this morning. First, when Witt asked him what swing states to look out for on Tuesday, he broke new ground. He said, Well Alex, we’re releasing our final projections tomorrow, but I’ll give you an early sneak peek. We’re now up to eight swing states on Tuesday, and Iowa is one of them. And it’s the one I’ll be watching the closest.
Sabato went on to clarify. If Trump goes on to win Iowa by a large margin, then the poll was just an outlier. But if he loses, or only wins by a narrow margin, than that opens up a whole new can of worms for the Trump campaign, and not one they’re going to like.
Then he dug into the nitty-gritty. What this major shift tells me is that in a state like Iowa, Harris’s message is resonating with older women, and even younger women in rural counties in Iowa. Nothing else could make up for that kind of a swing. And Trump’s problem is that when you look at the makeup of Iowa’s rural counties, they’re extremely similar in composition to the rural counties in Wisconsin, Michigan, and even parts of western Pennsylvania. And that could be fatal in states where he didn’t have such a huge lead to fritter away.
Sabato went on to say that even if Harris loses the Iowa battle, she’s already won the war. The campaign is already trumpeting the incredible turn of events in Iowa to juice up their turnout operation in the last days of the campaign, and you gotta know that those workers are going to be touting that to prospective voters as a sign of the campaign’s momentum.
Sabato had one last point, which was my favorite. As Map to the Stars Eddie said above, Everybody loves a winner. If there are still any undecided rural voters out there, even suburban, especially women, dithering between party loyalty or a pig on two cloven hooves, and they see the specter of red Iowa turning blue, might they not say to themselves, Hey! Why shouldn’t I hitch a ride on the winning float in the parade?
And here’s my personal reason why Iowa can be such a Trump killer. Let’s just say that Harris does win Iowa, even if only by a point or two. Iowa is a reliably red state, with a red Governor and legislature, and pretty much a stranglehold on statewide offices. If El Pendejo ex Presidente loses Iowa, how the f*ck does he claim massive voter fraud in a state that should be in his hip pocket? And if he can’t do it there, then it makes his efforts everywhere else look stupid and petty. And that’s why Iowa is suddenly so important.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Not so much a crack in the ‘Red’ wall, as no wall at all.
If Harris wins Iowa, wouldn’t that prove voter fraud?
Definitely! — The voter fraud is so humongous, the Commies, I mean the Democrats, even managed to “win” Iowa!!! LOL
Well, Trump’s been claiming that he’s going to win California and New York. We all know (even Donald knows) that winning either state, much less both, would DEFINITELY prove massive voter fraud.
trump has been chasing young men with his crass vocabulary and disgusting rhetoric. somehow forgetting that turns off women of all ages. joe Rogan clowns are not a winner