Donald Trump has an aircraft carrier sailing towards Iran and he’s amassing troops in the area. He may have a one-night escapade in mind, like the kidnapping of Nicholas Maduro and his wife, but that’s not how a strike of some sort would play out in Iran. It could be the beginning of the Vietnam of Iraqs. And bear in mind, Trump is polling at 60% of America strongly disapproving of his ICE tactics, with over 80% of Independents feeling that way. Now is not the time to get us into a Middle East war. What is Trump thinking? Dan Rather speculates and his ideas are as sound as any you’re going to find on the subject.
One of the most serious and somber decisions a president makes is when to send U.S. forces into battle. That decision comes with the obligation of explanation. The president apparently doesn’t think he is required to explain himself, nor does he believe he needs the consent of the American people.
Trump claims to be hoping for a diplomatic solution (a solution to what problem exactly?). American-Iranian diplomacy is tepid at best. The two sides met in Geneva earlier this week, reportedly to discuss Iran’s uranium enrichment program. According to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, there has been “a little bit of progress.” But the two sides are “still very far apart on some issues.”
Although neither the president nor the White House has articulated why, we can make some educated guesses: to finally destroy Iran’s nuclear program (though Trump declared it obliterated after the strike in June); to decimate Iran’s extensive missile force; or kill Iran’s military and political leaders, which would precipitate regime change.
According to CNN, the notoriously capricious Trump has been polling advisors, allies, and his friends at Fox “News” for advice. He could be bluffing, though moving a massive armada across the world would be a very expensive bluff.
And the risks are enormous.
Unlike the one-day strike on Iran’s nuclear facility in June or the quick capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, a war with Iran could escalate into a protracted regional conflict. Russia and China are allied with Iran and militia groups throughout the Middle East have long been financed by Tehran. Think Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza.
War would mean a high likelihood of American casualties and the capture of U.S. service members. Faced with those realities, how long would Americans stomach a conflict with an unexplained purpose?
If an American strike results in the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, what is the plan? Who would replace him? It could leave a power vacuum that potentially would be worse than Khamenei.
Before a shot is fired, markets are already jittery at the prospect of war in the oil-rich region, with crude oil prices spiking. A rise in gasoline prices won’t be far behind.
Trump, whose poll numbers are already anemic, could deplete his isolationist MAGA base, which tolerated the Maduro capture and the one-and-done strike on Iran. An unprovoked and prolonged campaign in Iran would not go over well with folks who backed Trump because he promised not to get involved in foreign wars.
Trump’s massive naval buildup could result in one particularly worrisome unintended consequence. The fleet is so large and the possibility of catastrophic damage so great, the Iranians could decide they have nothing to lose. A desperate opponent has little incentive to show restraint.
Khamenei is not just sitting still for this. Rather reports that he took to social media to saber-rattle himself. “The US President constantly says that the US has sent a warship toward Iran. Of course, a warship is a dangerous piece of military hardware. However, more dangerous than that warship is the weapon that can send that warship to the bottom of the sea.” This post was accompanied by an AI-generated image of the USS Gerald R. Ford in an ocean grave.
Did Trump literally fall asleep during some briefing on attacking Iran and he thinks he knows what is planned and he doesn’t? Or he expects Marco and Jared to take care of it?
Rather also throws out the idea that “Iran could also close the Strait of Hormuz, which would cripple the movement of oil in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, it could activate proxy terrorist cells across the globe.” This is true. Surely the people who *advise* Trump have thought of this.
Wait and see. It’s Thursday night, let’s see what we’re talking about Monday morning or if Trump and this misadministration have come to its senses. At the very least let’s see what he’s telling MAGA, because the bunker-busting bomb that Trump dropped on Iran earlier was supposedly the end of Iran as any potential nuclear threat. What to tell MAGA about what we’re doing back over there now?
This won’t be Venezuela. WTF is Congress?
First Trump doesn’t care jack-shit about injuries or deaths to American troops. We are nothing but suckers and losers to him. You’re right about Iraq not being Venezuela. They’re older now (not old, in their forties or so) but there are Irani veterans from the long war they had with Iraq. And Iran is a big ass country.
The thing it, they can cripple the world’s economy with frightening ease. Fully laden oil tankers passing back out of the Straight of Hormuz do so at minimum, ‘steerage’ speed – just barely enough to be able to make gentle turns. The actual channel they have to use isn’t very deep to begin with. And fully laden the keels of supertankers are just a few meters above it! It’s also not very wide.
People think in terms of sinking tankers or other huge ships in the channel and the ensuing nightmare of clearing them away. However Iran doesn’t have to do that. Park a few end to end across the channel for tankers, and rig them with a shitload of quite visible explosives that can be remotely detonated. They could also round up guys who in return for their loved ones being well taken care of to be hidden away in various parts of the boat with wire command detonation capability. Just in case jamming radio frequencies were to be tried.
Meet Iran’s demands and the ships sail or are towed away. I’m actually surprised they haven’t done this but they are already a pariah with most of the world. It would take something truly ‘no other choice’ to get them to a point where they’d wreck the world’s economy. But Trump trying to take them over militarily might be just the thing to make them do it.
We don’t need that oil but other countries, including and especially China do.
“The actual channel they have to use isn’t very wide to begin with. And fully laden the keels of supertankers are just a few meters above it!”
Denis, did you mean the channel isn’t very DEEP to begin with? If not, the point about the fully-laden supertankers isn’t all that much of an issue.
Thanks for the catch. It’s true the actual channel for huge ships isn’t very wide, but it’s even less deep than most people assume.
I have wondered if Netanyahu isn’t driving his beef with Iran. With Iran’s support of the proxy terrorist orgs, it seems to have been a sworn enemy of Israel.
47 doesn’t “get it”. He “wants it”. It’s up to the generals and admirals to stand up for America. Next week? Definitely before the primaries in March.
Trump loves the spectacle of war: ships, planes, drones, and paratroopers dropping down from the sky, and he’d watch it like a kid playing with toy soldiers. Like Denis said above, Trump doesn’t care about deaths of American troops. DOESN’T CARE! That’s the attitude of a megalomaniac. The title of Mary Trump’s book, ‘Too Much and Never Enough’ describes Trump to a tee. He is in the process of destroying the world, like a cartoon villain. The 25th Amendment is needed now. His Cabinet is as bad as him. Congress, whereinell are you? Fawlking DO SOMETHING!