A war is fought on a lot of different fronts, always, but this Ukraine conflict may set the standard for global conflagrations here on out. First of all, it does take a village and we are a global community, whether that suits some people’s political rhetoric or not. Right now the international community is rallying behind the besieged Ukraine and Russia is becomingly increasingly isolated. Today they lost Starbucks, McDonalds, Coke and Pepsi.
Sanctions on Russia will continue and considering what a madman Putin is, he isn’t going to do anything about it. He doesn’t care if his people suffer.
It was hoped that the Ukraine conflict could settle quickly and be another Gulf War but that hasn’t happened, as we approach the two-week mark, and it doesn’t look like it will. Daily Beast:
The likelihood that the conflict may go on for much longer is based on the fact that neither side is in a position to win a quick victory.
For all their courage and the damage they are inflicting on the Russians, it is hard to imagine Ukraine’s armed forces will drive out Moscow’s troops any time soon. More likely is that Russia continues to make slow gains. They are not well set up for urban fighting and we could see stand-offs in major cities.
But in the past, as in Grozny, Chechnya, Russia’s military has embraced the tactic of the utter destruction of cities they could not otherwise win. We are already seeing signs of that with indiscriminate Russian shelling, missile attacks, and the bombing of Ukraine’s urban centers. Perhaps that tactic ultimately allows Russia to push the Ukraine government out of Kyiv and set up its own client regime.
Should that happen, the rightful Ukrainian government may be moved to exile or a safer location in Ukraine’s west, where it would oversee an insurgency. But even if the government falls entirely, at this point a protracted insurgency seems likely and, in the end, might result in Moscow’s decision to withdraw. The Russians have seen the consequences of such wars in Afghanistan. What’s more, they are struggling economically under heavy international sanctions and a long war in Ukraine, whatever form it may take will be very expensive—maybe more expensive than Moscow can afford.
It may seem, contemplating these alternatives, that time is on the side of the people of Ukraine. Perhaps. But it may not be that simple. It certainly will not be the case if Ukraine and its friends and allies worldwide are not fully and properly prepared for the long haul.
There are positive signs that Ukrainian and the international leaders who support it understand this. On March 5th, the Washington Post ran an article entitled “U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency.” The article quoted a U.S. government official stating, “We’re doing contingency planning now for every possibility” and noted that includes considering what a government-in-exile might look like. It also stated that efforts to support that government and the insurgency are being considered—and the strategic shifts necessary to fighting an insurgency, rather than a conventional defensive war, are being discussed.
Such scenarios are turning on what has emerged as the X-factor of this war, the fierce determination of the people of Ukraine to preserve their independence and freedom. As inspiring and important that has proven to be in the first days of this war, sustaining it for months or years is going to be a real test. Moreover, and perhaps just as salient, maintaining international support for Ukraine and for sanctions on Russia is also going to be hard to maintain for an extended period.
This is all speculation at this point and speculation is all that we have, unfortunately.
Meanwhile, as stated, McDonald’s has closed its 850 restaurants in Russia and it will continue to pay its 62,000 employees, admirably.
The decision is a notable shift for a company that has usually shied away from inserting itself into polarizing topics, industry experts say, signifying changes in global culture where corporations are no longer choosing to be neutral on social issues but responsive and declarative about their stances.
Shortly after the McDonald’s announcement, Starbucks, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo announced that they would pause services in Russia.
Starbucks’ licensed partner, the Kuwait-based Alshaya Group, which owns and operates 130 stores in Russia, will temporarily shutter locations and “provide support” to its roughly 2,000 local employees, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson said in an open letter.
Coca-Cola, in a brief statement Tuesday, made a similar announcement and suspended its business in Russia.
And PepsiCo, which has operated in Russia for more than six decades, halted its soda sales, including its eponymous cola and 7UP. But the company said it would continue to manufacture milk, baby formula and baby food, allowing it to keep tens of thousands of workers employed.
“Pepsi-Cola entered the market at the height of the Cold War and helped create common ground between the United States and the Soviet Union,” the company’s CEO Ramon Laguarta wrote in an email to employees.
“The invasion and humanitarian impact of this war are devastating and create a ripple effect that is felt throughout the world,” Johnson wrote in a letter last week, as public pressure to take a stance mounted.
The linchpin of all this change is of course, Vladimir Putin. He is the only one who can stop this and as time goes on and he loses face, that reality becomes more elusive. And you know how crazy narcissists can get when they lose face.
The US was not in the mood to join WW2 as Hitler marched into various territories in Europe. We didn’t join the conflict until pearl harbor. I had a US History professor that hated FDR. The reason was he was convinced FDR deliberately allowed Japan to attack pearl harbor & had intelligence to show that was their plan. His best friend was stationed & killed there. Children are being destroyed. Even if they aren’t killed or wounded, no one can say exactly what damage is done when you see all the adults running scared or being killed themselves. Or having lost ur home, ur school, ur town, ur friends & relatives. I thought the same about what Miller & Trump did to thousands of families at our border. We hate being inconvenienced. We want things cheap, fast, & easy. What we take for granted, those poor souls can only hope someday to have.One million children are now wandering around with those poor mothers trying to stay positive for their kids. So I hope people realize that having to endure higher gas prices etc.is a small price to pay. Freedom has never been free. I hope we can remember that & not forget that, by supporting trump/putin, the rich gop members of congress are covered in blood & tears. Vote ALL their asses out of power wherever they run for office. Do it for the Ukrainian children. Do it for YOUR children. Someday they may be the dead toddler on the ground. Evil only destroys, it never builds anything for the common good. It’s time to realize that it isn’t just Ukraine at war. The world is at war. I pray we have the stomach for it.
Scott, people like you, me, Ursula, etc. (folks who regularly read this and DK) care and not just about our children. We don’t vote republican and likely never have and never will. The people who vote for G.O.P. members of congress, legislatures, and what have you do not care-about anything except their own creature comforts. Those who do not have creature comforts figure they’re going to win the lottery any day now and sure as hell don’t want to be taxed on those nonexistent dollars. Point is they do not care and never have. They worship at the Bible of the Buck church and that is all that matters. Well, that and scapegoating every marginalized group possible.
For this war, the rubes will believe whatever fux nuz tells them to believe.
I’m always amazed that anyone can claim that Japan was the first act of aggression in WW 2
They all overlook the sinking by a U Boat in October 1941 of the USS Reuben James.
Now as to why that didn’t lead to war with Germany, I simply don’t know. It may have still been the subject of a Court of Inquiry when Japan attacked and no determination had been reached at that point.
I’ll admit that isn’t anything to do with the current situation – I was just responding to a minor point in the post. Be that as it may, what is glaringly obvious is that Putin was, in effect, given carte blanche by Don John to do whatever he wanted and that the US wouldn’t interfere – that all went by the wayside when Putin’s main asset in the US lost his job and was evicted from his free lodgings on Pennsylvania Avenue. Putin overreached and misjudged the world reaction. He’s now beginning to feel the pinch (if not him personally, then his financial backers as their assets get frozen)
The big US companies continuing to support their workers is probably being ignored by the Kremlin controlled media (and it IS being controlled in that it can only propagate ‘approved’ news) but they all have families and friends who will spread the word.
Putin is probably have to send a LOT of people to jail for protesting – the midnight knock at the door and a fast transfer to Siberia could well make a return to Russia. Don’t forget that Putin is, at heart, a KGB officer and won’t think twice of going back to their version of ‘justice’
What’s amazing is thousands in Russia are protesting knowing what putin will do. Can’t plead the fifth 400 times & go free to bitch.