I wrote recently that with all that’s going on at home, and with the recent internationals “news” being about King Charles III’s Coronation that although it had been pushed to the back for folks minds fighting and dying in Ukraine continues.  They are fighting a proxy war on behalf of the free world, the war General George Patton got sacked for saying we’d eventually have to fight.   He made his point right after WWII, and the “sooner or later” he referred to is happening as I write this.

I have a reputation (admittedly fairly well deserved) for writing lengthy stuff that digs so deeply into the wees that folks lose interest.  Or don’t absorb the main point(s) I try to make.  Ukraine is a big country, and war is a complex thing.  One can’t provide an accurate accounting of the various aspects of this war without a lot of context so I won’t get into all that.  At least not now.

For the moment I want this to be short and to the point.  Since last summer there’s been a ton of discussion about the time when Ukraine would be launching a major counter-offensive.  One that would push Russia out of all Ukraine for good.  I’ll get to that “all” point in a bit.  For now the issue has been staving off Russia’s ongoing assaults on Ukrainian cities, committing war crimes for attacking civilians in a deliberate, systemic and ongoing fashion and cutting Russia’s lines of communication.  I use that word in the context of warfare – “communications” is the ability to move people, equipment and supplies to where they/it are needed.  As the old saying goes “Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics” and on the latter point Russia’s attempt to take over Ukraine was badly flawed, if not doomed to failure (If Ukraine didn’t quickly capitulate) from the start.

Ukraine not only did not fold, but started fighting back and with a considerable degree of effectiveness from the opening salvos.  However, it was always going to be a long time before Ukraine would have the ability to do more than deny Russia victory.  Slowly but inexorably, supplied by weapons provided by the west as well as training Ukraine has pushed Russia back.  But don’t kid yourself.  This war is far from over, hence all this talk about a major Ukrainian counter-offensive.  Something so fierce, and so big & strong that it would break Russia’s back and force them into hastily pulling out all their people and whatever equipment they could somehow manage to take with them in the panic.

Winter, and the frozen ground that would allow for large scale maneuver warfare came and went.  No counter-offensive.  With warmer weather and the ground thawing a major offensive would have faced the same problem Russia did in the first month or so of its invasion – mud.  Believe it or not mud makes that much difference.  However, with the ground drying up and getting firm again it’s time.  President Zalenskyy is saying maybe Ukraine will hold off another few weeks until June so as to make sure new and game changing stuff like a big batch of new tanks are in position.  Some say the counter-offensive has already started with Ukraine probing along a wide front looking for the right spot for a major push.  We’ll see.

What we can be fairly sure of is that Ukraine is far more likely to do great harm to Russian forces (and Putin’s ambition) than the other way around.  With the exception of aircraft (which it’s afraid to risk in Ukraine because Russia is a vast country with others including China to watch out for) Russia is outclassed.  Ukraine can match them (or more) soldier for soldier and Ukraine’s troops are far more experienced, and far better trained and supplied.  My bet is that before the end of summer things will turn to serious talks about attaining a peace treaty.

Therein lies the problem that prompted this.

I’ve written some about this before in comments and an article or two but it’s worth thinking about (and hard) right now.  Things like:

  • What price should Russia have to pay to Ukraine?  They’ve destroyed so much, and killed so many including so many innocents.  So many more have been injured and turned into refugees in other countries.
  • What should countries who have taken in and provided for so many Ukrainians forced to flee the violence/destruction get?  Not to mention all the military aid so many countries have provided even as they have tried to rebuild economies broken due to Covid?
  • War Crimes have been massive in scope.  Will Russia be forced to submit to the authority of some Nuremburg type international tribunal?  If so, do those who will have to face charges and trial go all the way up to Putin?
  • And, (I said I’d get back to this) there’s the issue of Crimea.   Russia’s annexation of Crimea was illegal.  It wasn’t just Ukraine that said so.  The international community has said so.  Only Russia and a handful of countries afraid to stand up to them say otherwise.  Crimea is crucial to Ukraine not just because it was part of Ukraine, but has strategic value.  They had an agreement that gave Russia access to and considerable control at multiple ports.  I for one don’t think Ukraine will want them having that kind of “foothold” ever again.

The point though is that Crimea is going to be either a deal make or deal breaker in bringing this war to an end.  So, as you follow events in the coming months and if as expected Ukraine forces Russia to the negotiating table (whether with Putin or someone else if he winds up dead one way or another) keep the questions I’ve posed in mind.  But especially the one regarding Crimea.

I can get into strategy and logistics stuff regarding why so many Russian troops have been parked in southern Ukraine to establish and hold a “land bridge” to Crimea.  And how Ukraine might decide to sever it and in a way the Russian’s can’t counter & the ensuing disaster it would be for Russia.  But again, that kind of stuff gets into a lot of technicalities to make the overall context meaningful.  I’m quite willing to dig into all that and write some long, too long for many folks who’ve (admittedly sometimes justly) accused me of in the past both here and over on DK.  But only if enough folks here want me to do so.

For now, it’s enough to try and keep that fact that war in Ukraine is still happening, and that ending that war will be more difficult than most people think.

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5 COMMENTS

  1. I would hope for some kind of tribunal, to hold Russia accountable for war crimes and especially Putin, if he’s still around. I think that Russia should somehow be forced to pay to rebuild Ukraine. If that were to happen, I’m sure most of the refugees would return in a heartbeat to reclaim their country. Repaying all the military support might be a lot to hope for.
    I have no clue where that money would come from.

    • I think the US is giving the Ukraine the proceeds from the sale of confiscated yachts. That is a drop in the bucket, but other seized assets could be used, too.

  2. Since there supposedly is a trend away from oil and gas, thank heavens, something that Russia is holding in limbo with all the sanctions, maybe they could pump some of that out to the Ukraine for no charges, but then the Ukraine could use that to run machines and trucks in the huge rebuild of their country … in the LONG TERM, dictated by so much destruction, over so many years, that, could amount to a serious amount of direct aid …

    It IS a given that Putin never backs down, no matter how many young people get killed doing his dirty work in the Ukraine … I have to wonder how many ordinary citizens in Russia realize how many thousands of Russian Troops have actually perished in tanks and ground actions …

    Something tells me, the Kremlin will opt for a different management soon, the loses are so great, and the International heat against Russia proper is building faster than Putin can rebuild lost troop units …

  3. Denis thank you for a very informative article. Even your long ones I read through to the end. I always learn something and as long as I am learning I am still living. Once I stop learning I am dead. Thank you again.

    • Thank you. I have long felt like you about how it’s worth trying to learn something new every day. To me, if the time comes when I don’t feel like there’s something new out there to learn, and/or I’m done hoping to experience new things (or repeat good ones I’ve had) then it will be time to die. I sure as hell hope I never get to such a point. Also, so you and others know the reason I sometimes (ok – often!) write long stuff that dives into the weeds is that sometimes we engage with someone who has different views. IF all we have to offer on a topic is little more than a headline, a “talking point” (or two) then neither we or the other person learns enough to reconsider our respective positions. That my friend is where context, and some of those pesky and sometimes boring details come in. Being able to back up our case with a broader context and provide details that can be checked out & verified can make all the difference. Change one person’s mind, and maybe they go on to change someone else’s mind – a multiplier effect. Even if you never wind up knowing if you made that one difference you never know. So it matters, at least to me. I really do get why better and more widely read writers than me coach me to be more brief. And I do try more often than they or others realize. I don’t like criticism any more than the next person but when well-intentioned and/or constructive I put on my big-boy pants and process it. And from some folks on some subjects like writing articles for this or any other political site I take their efforts to coach me as a compliment, and do my best to take their criticism and suggestions to heart.

      But sometimes, my own humble opinion is that a “short & sweet” article simply won’t do.

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