Ukraine – Forgotten By Journalists (So the Public Too) But Still At War

With all that’s going on here in the U.S., and the media’s obsession with Britain’s Royal goings on taking up most foreign news coverage the war in Ukraine has largely faded from the news and public consciousness.  It might not be a big item in the news or in the average person’s mind anymore but fighting continues.  Death and destruction are still going on.  If as many experts and many who watched them talk said after the quick war Russia failed to achieve the “lightening” victory it (and initially they) assumed would happen were saying Russia ultimately would lose, the tragic fact is that Russia still had the means to make sure Ukraine and its people paid a terrible price to remain free.

Now we are in the post winter muddy season which has hampered major military offensives for both sides for a while but it’s getting time for things to ramp buck up in a full fury.  For endless months we’ve heard talk of a Ukrainian counter-offensive that would kick Russia out for good.  In truth  Ukraine has already pushed Russia out of much of the initial territory it had taken at the outset of this war.  Still, there is a considerable amount of Ukraine yet to be liberated.

Not to mention Crimea. (That will I predict be the sticking point to ending this war)

Russia has failed and if the failure hasn’t (yet) resulted in the death and destruction in Russia that’s taken place in Ukraine the country is bleeding badly and those wounds are deep.  Their once feared military has (again – remember Afghanistan?) been exposed as capable of inflicting a lot of cruel death and destruction but still overrated.  Putin, or Pootie as I sometimes like to call him, the Cold War KGB puke who dreamed of a restored, leaner and meaner USSR didn’t learn a goddamned thing from the Afghanistan fiasco.  In the end the main difference is that Russia will have to capitulate in far less time than it took for them to accept their loss in Afghanistan.

In the meantime as I’ve said the war is ongoing.  And it looks like that major Ukrainian offensive everyone has been talking about will be happening soon.  There are multiple fronts where Ukraine can strike and I’m not going to try and guess where the main thrust will be.  Let’s just say they have multiple options, more opportunities than Russia can defend against.  Also don’t forget that in the midst of all this Pootie himself is by credible accounts a very sick man.  It’s not wild speculation that instead of “cerebral lead poisoning” he might actually die of cancer.  Stomach cancer supposedly although if it’s bowel cancer or has spread there more than a few of us would enjoy the irony.

Why am I writing about all this?  I’m not a true general expert but I do have some expertise that applies to how this war unfolded and as a student of military history more than an average person’s knowledge of wars.  How they are fought and why they are won or lost by the participants.  My main role with Politizoom is as an admin puke, someone who takes care of mundane stuff so the site’s owner Ursulafaw can spend more of her time doing what she does best (and much better than me) which is writing.  But just as when I hung out mostly on Daily Kos I sometimes write and publish articles myself and as the only writer/staffer with PZ that has military background and as I said more than average knowledge on the subject I think we should be looking at this here on this site.

Because, as future articles to come will explore there are far reaching implications to not only what’s taken place in Ukraine (and elsewhere) so far but that the future.  There will be some significant changes to Europe and the rest of the world.  The consequences will reach beyond the borders of Ukraine, and frankly some of them are of the “we’ll have to wait and see” variety.

Because of this it’s worth noting how things got to where they are.

The events that led to this war go back far longer than the current Russian invasion, but for the most part I’ll start with the immediate lead up to the war and how it unfolded, at least in the early part.  In late February, 2022 President Biden was hard at work both at home and internationally – being the political equivalent of a trauma surgeon working to stabilize a badly wounded patient.  While he faced (and still does) fierce resistance at home from Trump and his followers who either refused to accept a Biden Presidency or worked to sabotage it (or both) he fared better on the international front.  NATO in particular needed shoring up and Biden’s efforts turned out to have been far more successful and far more immediate than many, not the least of which was old Vlad Putin realized.

Russia spent months prepping for the invasion, transporting enormous amounts of military equipment, supplies and a large number of troops to Ukraine’s borders to prepare for the invasion.  All the while (of course) denying to the world he had any intention of taking over Ukraine!  Fortunately, some (not all, not by a long shot but some) of the intelligence gathering capability that had gone dark during the Trump years was being restored.  We, and by extension NATO knew much more than Pootie realized and more importantly shared it with Ukraine.  Probably even Zelensky didn’t want to truly believe some of of it.  Who wouldn’t hope beyond hope the nightmare scenario being presented wouldn’t happen?  The same was true of the people of Ukraine.  So, while not caught completely off-guard it was still something of a shock when the missiles and shells actually started falling.

However, this wasn’t the same Ukraine that existed when Putin’s proxy forces took over chunks of eastern Ukraine in 2014.  An awful lot of Ukrainians were “blooded”, as in gained experience in combat during the subsequent years.   If, when Ukraine was still largely powerless to stop the takeover of Crimea when it happened enough years had gone by that there was a larger number of reserve forces in Ukraine than there would be Russian invading troops.  Not properly equipped mind you, but they made out awfully well initially with what they had on hand.  It wouldn’t last long so they needed a fast influx of infantry platoon level weapons and due to their having shifted from a Russian military model to a western one they had a seasoned corps of Non-Commissioned Officers (the backbone of any large army) and even junior officers to quickly organize volunteers into effective fighting units.  Which as we know happened.

If a country and it’s people can’t quite believe that what for all appearances will be a war will happen, they can still react by resolving to fight.  And the dislike of Ukrainians for Russia goes back longer than any of us have been alive.  Or our parents and even grandparents.  If not universal in Ukraine there has long been a seething cauldron of hatred towards Russia.

Much is made of that convoy that got stranded between the border of Belarus and Kyiv and I’ll get to it, but there’s another part to the initial attack that is just as important but gets overlooked.

So, let’s look at the grand strategy to occupy Kyiv and decapitate (literally) Ukraine’s leadership.  There were two parts to it.  Seize and control the airport right off the bat and while flying in plane after plane of troops and gear send special units into the city to find and kill Ukraine’s President and other leaders.  The other was to roll that massive convoy of tanks and heavy trucks, as well as troops down the highway from Belarus so that within 24-48 hours images of all that freely roaming the streets of Kyiv would be broadcast across Ukraine and around the world.  Putin assumed at that point that while some mopping up would be needed around the rest of Ukraine things would be over.  There would be outrage of course but with things “over” the world would quickly turn to focusing on making sure his country kept providing energy to Europe and elsewhere.  Not to mention combining Ukraine’s agricultural output with Russia’s grain production he could also use food as an economic weapon.  Russia, a third rate economy and power would have to be taken seriously again.  To be one of the few elite powers running world affairs.

But it all depended on that quick, devastating takeover of Kyiv.  It was modern Russia’s version of Imperial Japan’s “decisive blow” strategy that would fail them during WWII.

That’s where the failed attack on Kyiv’s airport becomes so important.  Russia had planned out a big air assault on the airport complete with a large number of seasoned Airborne troops.  They’d gain control and within hours plane after plane of more Russian troops would fly in.  Like so many Airborne troops they were expected to take a key objective and hold it for a short time – until relieved by a much larger ground force which in this case was that convoy coming down from Belarus.  In the meantime however, there were platoons assigned to go hunting for Ukraine’s leaders, again counting on the “shock and awe” factor to move about Kyiv with relative little risk.

When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor there were two goals that weren’t met, but could have and frankly should have been.  Although they were understandably concerned about their fleet being detected since surprise was essential, they didn’t wait and make sure American aircraft carriers they knew were returning to Pearl had actually made it there.  Those carriers were still at sea, less than a day away but long enough to not be trapped in that tiny space during the attack.  The other mistake was not making sure some of the attacking planes destroyed the oil storage tanks, or sending a second wave of planes to do the job.   So, instead of a “knockout blow” and forcing a retreat of the Pacific fleet to the west coast for a year or more (which might have prompted a settlement with the U.S., or so many of Japan’s leaders thought) we muddled through.  So Japan tried again for the knockout blow which resulted in their devastating loss during the battle of Midway.  One could make a compelling case that although years of brutal fighting remained Japan lost the war then and there.

That my friends is the trap Putin and Russia fell into.  Believing in their superiority, that lack of will of their enemy to fight and that a devastating “knockout blow” would pretty much end things right away.

Except… It turns out Russia never fixed it’s problems when it came to maintaining its military equipment and there were glitches in the actual assault on the airport.  Then, remember all those battle experienced Ukrainians I mentioned?  Some of them were either there or very close by and they instantly fought back and the whole thing if not bogged down certainly didn’t wind up achieving it’s key objectives.  The attempted takeover of the airport would fail and it wasn’t safe for Russia to fly in all the troops and equipment they’d planned to.

Then there was that massive armored assault column coming down from Belarus.  Think for a moment about a place 75-100 miles from where you are that you’ve driven back and forth to multiple times. Growing up deep in southern Illinois only eight miles from the Mississippi there were several routes one could use to make the hundred mile trip to St. Louis.  The same was true once I lived in the eastern panhandle of WV if I went over to DC.  Different ways to get to the same place.  Keep that in mind.

Once upon a time I was on active duty in the Marines.  At age 26 I was turned down for OCS and therefore getting Naval Aviator’s wings but I went ahead and enlisted, volunteering for infantry.  That’s a story I won’t get into the details of except to note the important part which is that instead of being your basic rifleman I was assigned to a weapons platoon.  My specialty was anti-tank/assault.  What that means is I was trained on how to identify and kill Soviet (this was back in the 1980s – it seems like a different life) armor with missiles and also to use explosives.  Such an M.O.S. tends to make a person in it want to learn more about battlefields and how the enemy might use terrain AND how to defend against what the enemy can do.

So, within 24 hours I looked at the map and photos and thought “Those Russians in that assault column are f**ked.”  They would have been even with the anti-tank weapons we had back in my day and far better ones have been around and in common  use for many years now!   Here’s where Putin/Russia screwed up so badly in planning.  Again, keep in mind was total control of Kyiv and their leader dead (or humiliatingly tucked away in some foreign capitol) within a day or two.  The Russian advance with all that armor and all those troops that would make great TV viewing in Ukraine and around the world brutalizing Kyiv had to advance down a single  highway.

We and our allies (mostly British) learned a brutal lesson and one Russia should have heeded on such a thing during WWII.  I’m referring to the failed Operation Market-Garden which was an even bigger assault and with better troops and equipment than Russia had in Ukraine at the outset of the war.  Much is made of Putin’s mistake in delaying the invasion because of the Winter Olympics but in truth it wouldn’t have mattered much.  Within hours a handful of brave Ukrainians, something they’ve never had a shortage of could have slowed down or even stopped that column.  Even if the ground had been frozen and allowed a certain amount of maneuvering off the highway.   There were, just as was the case in Holland in WWII too many patches of woods on the sides of the roads where defenders could hide.   And Russian air power turned out to be nothing like what had been feared.  Their Air Forces had maintenance problems of their own.

Each hour literally bought precious time and as those hours turned into days, and Zelensky could be seen in Kyiv it was clear not just to me but a lot of western military leaders that Russia had major problems.  The only question was how bad and whether their people and equipment were actually as formidable as had been feared.  It turned out the answer to both questions was no.  And the failure to take the airport and get units into Kyiv to capture and kill Zelensky was I believe one of those events on which history turns.

He never actually said “I don’t need a ride, I need weapons” but he WAS offered evacuation and pointedly refused.  And he asked for as much help as he could get as fast as possible.  But the “quote” went out, the people of Ukraine saw him out in the streets of their Capitol and I believe when history looks back on all this long after I’m dead & gone it will be that which turns out to have been the defining moment – the point where Ukraine won and Putin/Russia lost.

A lot has happened since and Ukraine has suffered greatly.  Russia did have one military asset that was almost as advertised – tons of artillery pieces and shells to fire from them.  Quite a few surface to surface missiles too.  If they’ve had a superior Air Force they haven’t used it the way they might have.  It might be due to maintenance issues.  It might be because they need to keep something in reserve because Ukraine isn’t their only concern.  They are by land mass the largest country in the world and a viable Air Force is critical.  There’s only so many planes they can risk in Ukraine and that’s always been the case. Tragically, there was appalling damage Russia could inflict with artillery and rockets and they’ve done so.  With war crime level cruelty.  (Another subject for a later time)

So this awful war, even if lost by Russia in the opening days due to the failures I’ve noted has continued.  There have been economic impacts felt around the world but with few exceptions the world has supported Ukraine and Russia which was already nowhere near being a superpower again has become increasingly isolated.  However, don’t kid yourself.  Even a badly defeated Russia will still be dangerous.  The terrifying principle of “If our side can’t win both sides can still lose” is out there.  No, I don’t believe Russia will start lobbing nukes.  What worries me is what might happen if someone decides to make a pile and then disappear by selling off some of the material in those warheads.  That’s a topic for a later time.

This has gotten longer than I intended so let me try to sum things up.  Putin/Russia started this war with faulty assumptions about their capabilities (both troops and equipment) and how Ukraine would react to be attacked.   It turns out Ukrainians are every bit as fierce as they’ve always been only this time when Russia tried to subjugate them they were much better prepared to fight back.  They sure as hell didn’t capitulate in a day or two as expected.  Russia’s planning was for sh!t.  Their equipment might have looked all shiny and ready to go but it wasn’t anywhere near up to snuff.  Same for the troops for the most part.  And even the troops with good training, those tasked with the airport takeover weren’t as capable as advertised and operational glitches with aircraft didn’t help.  Finally, that year that President Biden had to repair some of the diplomatic damage Trump had done allowed, once Ukraine blunted the initial invasion NATO and other western countries to provide what Zelensky asked for right off the bat – lots of support and get it here fast and we’ll do the rest.

I want people to pay attention because Ukraine is doing what South Vietnam didn’t.  If you’re old enough, you know that while Westmoreland was all along working behind the scenes to have a massive American buildup and take over fighting that war LBJ and other politicians were, as increases in the number of troops deployed to South Vietnam happening during 1985-67 “freeing the Vietnamese to fight – it’s their war.”  Well, we and the rest of the world have been providing the means for Ukraine to fight Russia, and hopefully kill off the Red Bear that was the USSR for good.  Patton got himself fired for expressing the view that sooner or later we’d have to fight Russia so we might as well get it over with while we had the troops and equipment already there to do it.  He was I think right.

And now Ukraine is doing it.  Not just for themselves but for everyone in the free world.  Make no mistake, China is a huge problem but if Russia is smacked down hard it will at least slow China down some.  Without a Russian problem to deal with the world can work out a better joint strategy to contain China’s excesses.

But for now, we should be making sure our legislators know (especially if like me some of them on Capitol Hill are Republican) that we not only need to keep the pressure up with supporting Ukraine but increase it!

Russia, or perhaps more precisely Putin miscalculated from the outset.  Perhaps “Pootie” had military advisors who knew that absent a quick (within a few days) capitulation Russia was screwed – or even maybe that Ukraine could and likely wound bottle up the force that was supposed to dash down that single highway from Belarus and take Kyiv and the whole thing was a roll of the dice.  And were afraid to say so.

Contrary to popular belief Russia and even the old USSR had training for those destined for high command where a measure of truth about military campaigns was taught.  Being a student of the subject myself I figure some were familiar with the ill-fated Allies’ Operation Market Garden in WWII.  Montgomery convinced Eisenhower to greenlight a massive combined Airborne and Armored assault into Holland in Sept. 1943 that would traverse roughly a hundred kilometers up a single highway and seize a bridgehead over the Rhine (not just the huge Highway bridge in Arnhem but the nearby railway bridge too), after which Allied Forces could pivot and strike into the Ruhr, Germany’s industrial heart and end the war before Christmas.

As it turned out, trying to advance that massive ground force up a single highway proved those who had concerns were correct to have had them.  Instead of two days, or even the four General Browning told Montgomery the Airborne division could hold Arnhem for weren’t enough.  Arnhem, it’s bridges and too much of Holland remained in German hands and the war continued into the next spring.

A single highway.

So, in