This is not good news for Donald Trump. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth will result from this poll, methinks. YouGov released its latest poll Tuesday morning and it shows that Trump’s downward trend has accelerated and this time he’s down six points for a cumulative poll of -17, down from -11 in the last YouGov poll. These are not typical numbers at all, and especially not from a second term president and most especially not in his first six months. This is so anomalous as to be jumping off the charts. But then again, we deal with Mr. Anomaly himself.
The decline comes amid backlash to the Trump administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case. The White House had initially ordered a review of the case and said it would publish names and evidence about associates of Epstein, a wealthy financier who died by suicide in jail in August 2019, weeks after his arrest on sex trafficking charges.
However, a recent memo from the Department of Justice and the FBI stated that there is no “client list,” and no further charges will be brought.
A sustained polling backlash could affect Trump’s reputation and the Republican Party more generally in the November 2026 midterms.
The YouGov survey of 2,104 adults was conducted between July 9 and July 13. It found that 39 percent approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president and 56 percent disapprove.
The poll had a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.
Other polls have painted a similarly bleak picture of Trump. A Tyson Group poll, conducted between June 25 and 26 among 1,027 U.S. adults, showed Trump’s net approval rating 6 points underwater, with 45 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
However, other recent polls have shown Trump has had an uptick in support from conservatives. According to polling by YouGov/The Economist, the president has a net approval rating of +80 from this demographic. This is similar to the levels it was at during the start of his second term.
I would like somebody to define the word “conservatives” for these purposes and know how that particular demographic is being polled and where. It seems a bit odd because the reason that the Epstein matter is so concerning is because it is MAGA who keeps insisting on a resolution of it. This is not a left v. right issue, in fact, the right is far more vociferous about this than the left right now.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey, told Newsweek: “The Epstein backlash has the power to hurt Trump badly and will be far and away the largest factor in his latest polling slip. Releasing the Epstein Files is the Holy Grail for the MAGA base. Trump told them he was going to do so in the run-up to the presidential election, and they believed him.
“They took it on faith that he was not involved in Epstein’s underage sex activities and that there were dark forces at play in Epstein’s death. The release of the files was going to expose the actions of their political opponents and place the president atop a moral high horse. But that hasn’t happened, and some within MAGA are definitely questioning Trump’s role and wondering what he has to hide.
He added, “In terms of other factors affecting his approval, his continual flip-flopping over tariffs is not playing well. More and more voters are realizing that tariffs on import affect them with rising prices and falling consumer choice for goods made outside the US. Many of these goods can’t be replaced by home-produced products in the short term or, quite often, at all. So the realization for many is that America First comes with consequences to their wallets. That does not play well when a pollster gets in touch.”
The downward trend makes perfect sense. And it also makes perfect sense that the tariffs madness is tied to it. Let’s see what happens in August. And I am particularly interested in seeing how we get through the end of the year. Karoline Leavitt ringingly declared that Trump tariffs had generated $100 billion or some far fetched figure today. I doubt that that’s accurate but if it is, it’s $100 billion out of our collective pocket and not some fantasy check, like a Publisher’s Clearing House sweepstake check, deposited into the treasury. That’s how Trump depicts tariffs and I eagerly await the day that that fiasco is exposed.
I imagine it will be a lot like when certain MAGAs went into their banks with their Trump bucks to cash them in and then got the awful news that they were not negotiable currency but only commemorative play money, in essence. I couldn’t believe anybody was so stupid as to think that Trump could mint actual currency, but people were. They handed over cold hard cash for their Trump bucks and they got back monopoly money in exchange.
Maybe that’s how Trump will be remembered, as the president that promised riches and delivered monopoly money.
