Well, I’ve been well into writing this article and news just broke that the U.S. has agreed to a two-week ceasefire. I’m still a bit unclear on whether Iran has agreed but fingers crossed. I fervently hope it’s true but even if so it doesn’t change the fact that two weeks isn’t very long, and Trump still needs an off-ramp. And what the off-ramp should be.
It was said from the time he was nominated, and worse confirmed that someday awful consequences would ensue with Pete Hegesth as Secretary of Defense. It’s “Someday.” In less than two hours (as I write this) a deadline is looming and Trump faces the choice of dealing with another round of ‘TACO’ mockery or breaking the United States and the world to a degree it can’t be put back together. He needs an off ramp and with people in the administration saying (dammit – they need to do it on the record!) Hegseth has mislead Trump into this dire situation. Trump needs to throw Hegseth onto the proverbial barbed wire and walk over him to “Let’s have a lengthy cease fire so things can cool down” territory.
Yes, the title photo is gruesome but unlike a soldier or Marine decked out in body armor throwing themselves onto a roll of barbed wire (so comrades can run over them towards the enemy) and not sustaining too much injury Hegeseth deserves getting used as a human bridge without any protection. He’s been so focused on warring with “WOKE” he’s gutted our military. Worse, he’s created some fantasy of himself being the Alpha Warrior in a military he’s created of ‘only warriors.’ Even worse than that since Trump has continued to see him as competent instead of some weekend minor Fox host that only looked like a leader Trump has been making even more flawed decisions than during his first term.
As this article from The New Republic explains Trump has been acting on bad advice. Petey Boy has done one thing well – get rid of those (including some at the WH) who would provide Trump the truth about what we can and cannot do. Or what it would take to accomplish certain things.
The weekend rescue of a downed F-15 crew member stands as proof that America does not have “complete control of Iranian skies,” despite what Hegseth pledged last month. Nonetheless, Donald Trump has unquestioningly regurgitated Hegseth’s militaristic optimism to the nation, fueling concerns that the White House is knowingly feeding misinformation to the American people, reported The Washington Post Tuesday.
“Pete is not speaking truth to the president,” one administration official told the newspaper. “As a result, the president is out there repeating misleading information.”
On Monday, Trump acknowledged that the fighter jet had been struck by a heat-seeking missile. It was a “lucky hit,” according to the president’s assessment.
But the F-15 wasn’t the only U.S. aircraft that got hit last week. Iran also shot down an A-10 attack plane on Friday, though the craft was able to fly back to friendly airspace before its pilots evacuated the vehicle.
Over and over we hear two opposing claims. One is that we’ve decimated Iran’s military capability. Wiped out its missiles and drones, it’s Navy and Air Force etc. (Someone should tell Trump the military history of decimate and that it means to reduce by 1/10th. I think the word he wants is obliterate) With the next breath we are told we have to keep at it because there is more we have to destroy! Which is it? It seems like a variation on Faye Dunaway in the movie Chinatown and her “She’s my sister – She’s my daughter” only in this case it’s “We’ve wiped em out – We haven’t wiped them out”, with an addendum about needing to send in combat troops.
It’s easy to shoot multi-million dollar missiles at small smuggling boats in the ocean and make big boom explosions that look cool. (Well, at least if you’re not on the boat or the person who might one day realize they committed a war crime – murder. And have to live with having done so) Even a snatch and grab job against a second rate military guard like in Venezuela was small potatoes. As the linked article explains our problem (and Israel’s since without us their Iron Dome wouldn’t protect them anymore) is that Iran can quickly and cheaply manufacture Shahed attack drones while what’s our side uses to shoot them down is WAY more expensive. And they don’t just cost more. They take longer to make. We have as I’ve talked about here on PZ been using up some of our stuff faster than we can replace it.
The article also points out that Iran quickly adjusted its strategy. After the first week or so they started limiting their attacks. They’ve built up far more inventory than we (or at least Team Trump) realized and aren’t at all close to running out if they remain disciplined. They’ve got older folks at the top who are seasoned in war and I don’t see that happening. They can I believe wait us out and bleed us of our own weapons stocks in the process. Which China loves the thought of. Russia too which is why they are helping Iran! All because (at least to me but I’ve got plenty of company) we have an idiot who’s main qualification for the job Trump put him in was looking good on TV and sounding to idiot MAGAs bored on Saturdays like he knew what he was talking about.
Iran has been a problem for us and the world ever since we help topple the Shah and Khomeni assumed power. They’ve sure has hell caused a lot of problems as they’ve exported terrorism and the death and destruction that comes with it. However they haven’t been the world’s first problem, even rogue country and won’t be the last. The free world has dealt with Iran and others and we were still containing them on the most important thing – keep them from acquiring nuclear weapons. We sure as hell didn’t need to start the war Trump started – in coordination with his pal Bibi in Israel who’s also in political trouble and needs a “Wag the Dog” war as a distraction as much as Trump does.
Well, it’s almost H-Hour. IF a cease fire happens and gives Trump a little breathing room someone he’ll listen to has to convince him that his best option is to use Hegseth as an off-ramp. Somehow convince Petey Boy to take some face saving role (Special Advisor to the middle east? With no staff. Just a nice office and strict orders to stick to talking points he’s handed) and from there do some quick house cleaning at the Pentagon.
From there it’s a matter of working out some sort of agreement along the lines of what had already been agreed to before Trump started the war. He can crow about having stopped a war – ignoring of course the inconvenient fact HE started it. The Joint Chiefs can become the face of drawing forces down and talking about showing American force. A thin veneer of credibility for Trump. For it’s part Iran can run around the middle east saying it stood eyeball to eyeball against Trump and made him realize invading them wouldn’t be worth the price in money and blood our country would pay. If they aren’t too loudmouthed about it Trump can lurch forward to some other crisis
But I’m convinced the way out is over the “body” of Hegseth’s tenure as SecDef. He’s made Trump look bad in numerous ways. That’s an unforgiveable sin to Trump. The trick will be getting Trump to realize how badly he’s been served by Hegseth. IF that can be done Trump will gladly throw (or have someone else do so) throw Hegseth onto the barbed wire and walk over his back to flee the side of the fence where all the Iran trouble is.
I wish I could remember more about the article where Hegseth is firing people in the military so he can’t get fired. He’s worried about someone taking over. Well, he should. He’s made such a debacle of things, starting way back with the boats (we never did get any proof) and coming up to now. Please throw him on the barbed wire.
For the moment, I’m happy that I am not tracking a radiation cloud, because I was thinking Trump was going to do that. TACO Tuesday is fine with me this time.
America facing up to a problem their meddling started in the first place, when the CIA deposed the Iranian government, in 1953.