As we creep closer and closer to the 100 day mark for the 2022 midterms, one thing is becoming increasingly clear. The previously much ballyhooed Red Tide of 2022 is beginning to look more and more like a Pink Puddle.
As we get closer, more and more analysts, strategists, and pundits, both Democratic and Republican are beginning to say that the Democrats are more likely than not to hold, if not expand their Senate majority, and even the House is now almost a toss-up proposition for the GOP. How is this possible in a climate of $5 a gallon gas, 9% inflation, and a stalled Democratic legislative agenda?
Easy. One Donald John Trump. To show his grip on the party, Trump has endorsed national candidates from everything above school boards, and dogcatchers, and the Loud Toys have those covered. And those Trump endorsed candidates are the gift that just keeps on giving.
For starters, the candidates are pathetic. In PA, Mehmet OZ is running on a platform of Trump endorsed me! In Ga, Herschel Walker is running on a platform of I played football for Georgia, and Trump endorsed me! And in OH, JD Vance is running on a platform of I’m rich, I’m a hillbilly, and Trump endorsed me! Their only qualification for candidacy is Trump’s approval.
But even worse, they’re running because they’re die hard true believers. And that’s not what people want. But at least they Stick to the script. If The Big Lie worked in 2020, why wouldn’t it work in 2022, even against their own party?
I wrote previously about the woman in the GA Governor’s race who finished 52 points behind Kemp, and 40 something behind Perdue that wanted her voters to fill out and send her campaign headquarters sworn affIdavits that they had voted for her, so she could show the board of elections how she got screwed in the count.
And now AZ GOP Trump backed gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake has gone full bore Big Lie. I can only believe that her own internal polling shows her trailing, since she just announced that if she loses, it’s only because of GOP vote rigging to keep a Trump endorsed candidate off of the ballot.
But especially in the House races, they’re even worse. The minute they look like they’re losing, they launch pre-emptive strikes of massive GOP voter fraud to sink their candidacies. Welcome to the Trump GOP of 2022. If you run, then you win. And if you don’t? Then you didn’t lose, you got f@cked by massive GOP vote fraud.
Look, it’s this simple. In most swing states, and many more swing districts, these candidates are unelectable if they win. And if they lose, then they claim massive GOP voter fraud, and refuse to back the winner. And in battleground states and swing districts, those votes can spell the margin of victory and defeat. The Trump GOP snake has now eaten its tail halfway up the body.
funding education is more important than you think
“I wrote previously about the woman in the GA Governor’s race who finished 52 points behind Kemp, and 40 something behind Perdue that wanted her voters to fill out and send her campaign headquarters sworn affIdavits that they had voted for her, so she could show the board of elections how she got screwed in the count.”
I guess she wasn’t aware that, just because people send her “sworn affidavits,” it doesn’t actually PROVE they voted for her. There’s no way to verify the affidavits since absolutely NO ONE’S vote is recorded as by the particular voter. Even her own vote can’t be proven as a vote for her.
And as noted in Wikipedia, “In American jurisprudence, under the rules for hearsay, admission of an unsupported affidavit as evidence is unusual (especially if the affiant is not available for cross-examination) with regard to material facts which may be dispositive of the matter at bar.” Any “affidavit” filed saying “I voted for ___” is effectively an unsupported affidavit since there’s no way of proving OR disproving the claim.
Assuming we’re both on point, Murf, I predict the 2022 midterms will be the final breaking point of Trump’s influence. Costing the GOP three winnable Senate seats alone (three more and the Dems will have a “Do Whatever The F*** We Want” card) is something that they can’t just ignore. Plus, the crazies are driving away the middle of the roaders, as you pointed out. They get too brazen, it’s going to cause yet MORE political damage.
I think you and Murf are reading the situation accurately, both in the potential outcome (including picking up more than just Senate seats) and in the consequences for Trump’s grip on the GOP. BUT, I think and in fact KNOW there are cold-blooded and more importantly competent assholes in the GOP who see the reality of what could very well unfold in November even if Trump doesn’t make any more trouble for the GOP than he already has. And these types actually know shit, including and in particular the mechanics of fuckery. So my worry is that they’ve already given up spending time and effort (and even money) trying to counter Trump and his promotion of wackjob candidates, and instead turned to quietly setting up county level efforts to fuck with the actual elections, as well as in some states help legally prepare the legislatures (and state Supreme Courts) primed to do so to set-aside the actual results and install the fucking nutjobs just to keep/gain control. I don’t put ANYTHING past these toxic fuckwads. I for one won’t breathe a little easier until the votes are in, and even then not too easily. Not until they are formally certified and we’ve made the gains we hope (and should) make will I have any sense of relief. (Then there’s our own side doing/saying something stupid that will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!)
That scenario implies a centralized, coordinated leadership effort that all evidence more than suggests no longer exists. The fact that Mitch McConnell (AKA the last credible remnant of such leadership) has been publicly shanked twice this week speaks to my theory. I wouldn’t worry overly much about such efforts. They’re not likely to stay hidden nor are any of those cold-blooded folk you’re talking about in any real positions of power at present (and yes, I’m including Liz Cheney on that list).
HERE DONT MISS #Nevada piece on their former GOP State chair endorsing Teal AMERICANS .. who happen to be Democrats..
https://tinyurl.com/4cyws99x An interview piece with Mrs AMY Tarkanian.