Trump May Run Unopposed Unless Liz Cheney Jumps Into the Race

Pay very close attention to the next three weeks or so. They will tell a tale. Donald Trump made a half hearted effort yesterday in both New Hampshire and South Carolina to get his 2024 GOP candidacy jump started. He had nothing new to say and the reception to him in both states was obligatory rather than ovational. He did get a smattering of applause when he mentioned Critical Race Theory, that hoary old buzz phrase. But it does get the racists momentarily excited and so they put their hands together.

But there was no excitement, certainly not the excitement Trump is trying to generate. And there are no other contenders, and that is very likely going to be the case. They’re all afraid to come out and declare their candidacy, Ron DeSantis most of all.

DeSantis has never played on the national stage and the smart money (yes, I’m thinking Lincoln Project) thinks he will wash out there. They may be right. DeSantis has a PAC behind him, Ron To The Rescue, but he has not jumped into the spotlight. I don’t think that he will.

Trump is already making a lot of noise about DeSantis being “disloyal” and how he will “handle things” if DeSantis jumps into the race — which translates as it’s going to be ugly. Trump takes full credit for DeSantis having the career in politics that he does. Here’s his latest commentary.

Trump on Desantis: “Ron would’ve not been governor if it wasn’t for me. Number 1, he wouldn’t have gotten the nomination, and number 2 – he wouldn’t have beaten his Democrat opponent. So then when I hear he might run, I consider that very disloyal.” pic.twitter.com/11r2k3b6z0

— Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 (@RonFilipkowski) January 29, 2023

Intelligencer:

You do have to wonder if the assortment of candidates who are afraid of Trump includes his governor, Ron DeSantis. Is the rampaging demagogue who took on Mickey Mouse and is laying waste to Florida’s educational system actually hesitant to draw sustained fire from Mar-a-Lago? If he’s as smart as he is devious, DeSantis should indeed worry about an early 2024 mishap that exposes him as an exotic tropical phenomenon that cannot survive the snows of Iowa and New Hampshire. Plenty of invisible primary front-runners in both parties have suffered from a quick deflation after announcing their candidacies (including Joe Lieberman in 2004, Rudy Giuliani in 2008, Rick Perry in 2012, and Scott Walker in 2016). And Michael Bloomberg in 2020 proved that no amount of money and influence can protect a presidential candidate from one terrible debate performance.

This is true enough. But it’s also true that the longer Trump is running his solo routine, the more ingrained that becomes and the weaker any declaring opponent appears.

So maybe they’ll declare en masse, a whole pack of them? Politico:

And so, everyone is waiting for the other to act. As another Republican who has spoken with multiple prospective candidates and their teams put it: “I think they think a group launch … provides them protection from Trump.”

But waiting to jump in collectively comes at a cost. Republican presidential candidates will soon face pressures of the calendar, with the Iowa caucuses now just about a year away. Once one upper-tier candidate announces, others will be compelled to compete, lest they lose time to recruit staff, fundraisers, online support and exposure.

“I think it’s going to be one of those deals of who’s going to break first, who’s going to be the first announced candidate,” said Bob Vander Plaats, the evangelical leader in Iowa who is influential in primary politics in the first-in-the-nation caucus state and who was a national co-chair of Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign in 2016. “Once that person gets in, you’ll see the others follow suit.”

But with the exception of Republicans like former Rep. Liz Cheney or former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who may run primarily as anti-Trump candidates, there is almost no imperative to jump first. Instead, would-be candidates have spent last year preparing for a run without making major investments that come with actual announcements. They’ve made appearances on behalf of Republican candidates in key states. They have gone on book tours and made the rounds on TV.

This is the lay of the land: DeSantis is the golden boy of Florida, but has not demonstrated he’s got any national following. In fact, with his extremist policies in Florida he may be alienating many middle-of-the-road Republicans elsewhere in the country. That said, he is the only potential candidate to raise $10,000 on Google from advertising, since the beginning of the year. Nikki Haley came in second, raising $9,800, according to Politico. Everybody else is a long shot. Mike Pence is delusional, but maybe he will come to wake up soon.

Maybe the other contenders will draw straws to see who announces first. Who knows?

Is Liz Cheney likely to run? That would be interesting if she would, because if anybody represents the old school Republican party, and the virulent anti-Trumpers, it is she. I think that her entering the race would depend a lot upon how much Trump continues to fumble the ball and whether DeSantis delays or flat out doesn’t run.

Cheney could probably gain a lot of traction amongst old school “normal” Republicans who want to move on from Donald Trump. Don’t count her out.

And one thing is certain. The debates would be positively lit. Can’t you see Cheney on the same stage with a rabid Trump? I can see him foaming at the mouth now. A Cheney/Trump contest would split the party down the middle but at least at the end of the day you would know whether the old Republican party still was around, or whether MAGA is the new way of things. For educational purposes alone, this is a contest I would like to see.

Be prepared for surprises. The Republicans are floundering badly and times of flux, such as these, allow a lot of unlikely candidates to rise to the top. Ask Donald Trump. That’s how he got the 2016 nomination in the first place. The GOP had a vacuum in leadership and he slithered in and has held them hostage ever since.

Absent some Republican getting a handle on the 2024 election, the GOP nomination may just go to Trump by default. If it does, what a commentary it will make upon the party. One would think there would be a man or a woman who represents conservative values and who could beat a twice impeached, one term president with many civil suits pending and potential indictments hanging over his head, for the head spot on the ticket. One would think. But maybe they can’t. Maybe Trump really is the best they’ve got.

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