60 days until D-Day — “Dump Trump” Day — and what a glorious day in our history that will be.
Fox News came out with a new set of polls and the Trump campaign started howling. We don’t blame them. This is painful, trailing in three swing states. But here’s the bigger picture. Trump’s just screaming at Fox News, because he can’t scream at everybody.
Quinnipiac:Â Biden 52%, Trump 42%Â (10 pt. Biden lead)
USAT/Suffolk: Biden 50%, Trump 43%Â (7 point Biden lead))
Reuters/Ipsos: Biden 47%, Trump 40% (7 point Biden lead))
Grinnell/Selzer:Â Biden 49%, Trump 41% 9 )8 point Biden lead)
Economist/YouGov: Biden 51%, Trump 40% (11 point Biden lead)
Fox News Poll:Â Biden leads in three key swing states.
CNN/SSRS:Â Biden 51%, Trump 43% (8 point Trump lead)
USC Dornsife Daybreak:Â Biden 52%, Trump 41% (11 point Biden lead)
Now these are national polls. What is necessary now, in the last sixty days, is to start looking to state pollsters as the gurus that they are. in the last weeks, especially, in battleground states. In the last sixty days, the state pollsters are the ones with their fingers on the pulse, and that and the ground game of the Trump campaign, are the places to focus attention. At least that is conventional political campaign wisdom.
This is from Charlie Sykes’ newsletter. Apologies for no hot link, I can’t embed it into a browser.
Here are some interesting details from the polls. CNN’s pollster asked voters who they thought would “keep America safe from harm”? The result:Â Â Biden 51% (+6) Trump 45%
The same poll asked which candidate would “unite the country and not divide it”? Biden 56% Trump 36% — a 20 point gap.Â
Even the Fox poll shows that Trump is having trouble getting traction with his law and order pitch. “In Arizona and Wisconsin, voters said they preferred Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump to handle the issues of policing and criminal justice by a five-point margin; in North Carolina, voters were basically split down the middle on that.” [Emphasis his]
The same Fox News poll shows two incumbent GOP senators in deep, deep trouble: Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) 56 (+17) Martha McSally (R-inc) 39% …. and North Carolina: Cal Cunningham (D) 48% (+6) Thom Tillis (R-inc) 42%
As expected, the campaign went nuts. Bill Stepien said on Fox & Friends, “I love Fox News, I love you guys, I don’t love your polls.” Then Trump stubbed his thumbs on Twitter, he was so upset.
.@FoxNews Polls are, as in the past, Fake News. They have been from the beginning, way off in 2016. Get a new pollster. I believe we are leading BIG!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2020
Do you notice that any time Fake News Suppression Polls are put out, like @FoxNews, the Stock Market goes DOWN. We are going to WIN!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 3, 2020
Trump bee-leaves that he is leading big and what a fool believes, he sees. Plus, he’s got all his evangelical buddies to convince him that magical thinking is the right way to go, forget about reality. This will be an amusing 60 days.
You'll sometimes see people say stuff like "Biden MUST with the popular vote by 3 points or he's toast". Not true; at 2-3 points, the Electoral College is a tossup, not necessarily a Trump win.
OTOH, the Electoral College is not really *safe* for Biden unless he wins by 5+.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 2, 2020
I think it’s a safe bet that Biden will win the popular vote by a high margin. Our issue now is getting the post office out of the toilet.
I thought I just recently saw a Pennsylvania poll that had Trump catching up and in a dead heat with Beiden? Isn’t that a key state?
Here’s what I know, from the Philadelphia Inquirer:
Biden leads Trump by four percentage points among registered Pennsylvania voters, 49% to 45%, a Monmouth University Polling Institute survey released Wednesday found. That’s down from a 13 percentage point advantage Biden held in Monmouth’s last Pennsylvania poll, in early July.
Is this a single poll or have several others found a similar result? Media loves to tout the closest polls more than the aggregate. That’s now they give us heart attacks.
That is a Rasmussen poll which has a C+ rating. Quinniepiac poll has Biden ahead by 8 points. Q. has a B+ rating. The average lead for Biden at this moment is 4.3. The high was 8.1 back at the first of July. Always go to 538. It shows all the polls.
Well done. Thanks especially for the information regarding the Electoral College. I am a Democrat in a so far red state (Arizona) and in the 2016 election I might as well have not voted. My vote for Hilary didn’t count. I was disenfranchised.
Not at all. Arizona went purple in 2016. It was predicted that it could go blue in 2020 and it now looks like that is taking place. Everything that Democrats did in Arizona counted. There were Democrats who demonstrated outside Martha McSally’s office when she was a congresswoman. That counted. All the chickens are now coming home to roost. These changes do not take place overnight.
Please don’t say that. You have a very good chance that AZ will go for the Democrats. I’m in MS and I still have hope Espy will pull it off. Remember the convention that nominated Clinton. DON’T STOP THINKING ABOUT TOMORROW.
There are a whole ballot of people running for office. I live in a very red part of Texas so I don’t get many wins, but I am holding out hope that at least one of my reps from city council to state rep to senate to president will be one of the good folks.
I’m beginning to think Trump doesn’t have an off switch.
As smart as you are, you’re just figuring that out?
Kidding, of course…but it is remarkable how tone-deaf Trump’s latest round of blather has been, Old. Nor is it likely to improve. Let scaredy cats like Rick Wilson scream about how the worst is yet to come. I say that we’re closer to that fabled off-ramp than we’ve ever been. I can put with whatever he’s got to throw in order to get off this highway.
Five more months….
He doesn’t have a ‘volume’ dial either, he’s stuck on loudest.
The stock market face-planted today because all the big traders took their gains today. That’s the reason. And Miranda, never think your vote doesn’t count. The fish rots from the head, but everything down to the tail matters too. Downballot is critical for a lot of states, including mine (NC). We have a wonderful Dem governor whom I hope to see re-elected, but a State House with a Rethuglican stranglehold on it. So we’re working on that, too. It all matters, and all politics IS local.
Nearly all the GOP-T officials started out on things like school boards and city councils. If they hadn’t gotten elected then, they’d have had a harer time getting into higher office.
That’s the way the Tea party got going and we need to do likewise, in terms of organization and commitment to the cause.
Even though it has always been my practice to elect people, not parties, I realized a few years ago exactly what you said. Problem is those are usually non-partisan positions and no party affiliation is listed on the ballot. I have sat down with my sample ballot every year, and done the hard work of trying to figure out party affiliation and avoid Republicans. No point in putting them on the path to higher office.
When I moved here (in 2014) I thought of NC as a purple state but one in which the GOP had cheated its way to an advantage in the state house. I was stunned to learn the level of fuckery they’d engaged in to attain a stranglehold on it! While nothing is more important to me or the country than defeating Trump, making gains in NC that at least will neutralize the GOP’s ability to thwart Cooper is a very, very close third to the second priority of retaking the Senate along with the WH. There are other states where it’s important for Democrats to vote and even if only a little bit chip away at GOP majorities at the state and local level.
I’ve said before of and to people in solid red states that even if one’s vote for President is nullified due to the electoral college, and even if their vote for the House or state legislative seats is nullified by redistricting you can’t gerrymander an entire state. Also, at the state level if you can get a Democratic Governor and at least break up ill-gotten GOP super majorities in the legislature to allow that Gov. to do some of what they want to do it’s important. And gives hope to those who gave up on the system. Arizona finally looks ready to flip this year but it didn’t get that way for a long (too long) time. Texas may or may not flip, but it’s close enough the GOP is legitimately scared which is I believe why they’ve gone all-in on the Post Office sabotage. If Texas flips it’s game over for the GOP at the Presidential level and that will filter down to future Senate elections in other red states, as well as their state races as Democrats will have gained enough hope to get and stay engaged.
Call Tillis office, burr’s office to hassle the grape out of these nazis.
I wrote “crap”…not grape but u get the idea.
http://www.salarapps.com