Trump And Abbott Are Permanently Dismantling The GOP’s “Permanent Minority Majority”

You have to understand it for what it was. The Tea Party Revolution of 2010 was more than just a Koch brothers inspired, Caribou Barbie promoted astroturf movement. What it was was the GOP’s best thought out, last line of defense. And it had nothing to do with the 2010 US congressional midterms.

In 2010 the national GOP had a serious problem. They couldn’t win national elections anymore. Going back to 1992 the GOP had lost the popular vote in four out of the last five elections. And with the explosion of the New South, and the resultant population migration, the GOP was rapidly approaching becoming a permanent minority in the House.

Fun factoid. In the 2010 midterms, the GOP and its cash cows spent more money on state legislative races than they did on the US congressional races. Because 2010 was the GOP’s last shot, it was a census year. They couldn’t wait another ten years, the window would be permanently shut.

Win state legislatures and Governorships. Not just in traditional red states, but even more importantly in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and Ohio, states normally in play. Win those, and you could not only redraw the state districts to make the state almost impossible for the Democrats to win, you could redraw the US House maps to damn near guarantee yourself the only thing that would keep you alive and relevant, a permanent minority majority.

Here’s why 2010 was so critical. Like any really great magic trick or hysterical joke, you can only do it once. After that people figure it out. But as long as your gerrymandered maps hold up, you can drop oil from the ramparts every two years, and update your maps every ten years.

It has worked like a charm for fifteen years. The pure brazenness of the plan caught everybody with their pants down, and by the time they caught up, it was too late. But after fifteen years, population migration and the browning of America is eating into the fortress of gerrymander.

And the GOP still has the same problem fifteen years later, they can’t win national elections. They’ve dropped the popular vote in seven out of the last nine elections. And with Traitor Tot’s near record unpopularity, even among GOP base voters, 2026 could be the year when the last of the gerrymandering walls come crashing down. And once they’re gone, it’s basically over for the GOP.

Which leads to a little desperation ball by Governor Abbott and the Texas GOP, heartily supported by His Lowness. The House race is expected to be incredibly tight. If Abbott can pull off a little highway robbery and redraw the Texas map mid cycle to steal five more GOP seats, that may just be enough for the GOP to keep the House majority by a seat or two. This is not new. In fact Flop Gov, Ron Pissantis of Florida pulled the same thing in 2024, and took personal credit for saving the GOP House majority.

But the problem is that whatever it is, it’s now new. This time the Democrats are ready for it, and they’ve had fifteen years to get their responses in place. And in their threatened response to any mid cycle GOP gerrymander in Texas, the Democrats have exposed the fatal, naked underbelly of the GOP’s plan.

The GOP can’t redistrict every gerrymandered red state. In fact, they can’t effectively redistrict and gerrymander most of their coalition red states. For the simple reason that they’re just too goddamn small!

In response to Abbott’s threat, the Governors of California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey have all threatened to call their legislatures back into a special session to change the state constitution to allow for a partisan mid cycle redistricting of their own. Other states are threatening to follow suit.

Here’s why this is so critical. Nebraska is one of the deepest red states there is, and yet it has a Democratic Governor. And despite their best efforts, at gerrymander slicing and dicing, there is still the solidly blue Omaha-1 district that they just can’t seem to get rid of. And the same is true throughout most of the GOP’s southern and midwest and near west strongholds.

Look at it practically. The four Democratic states threatening their own redistricting, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California each have one city with a greater population than most if not all of these red states, Oklahoma, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, and Idaho. Most of those states can’t gerrymander any more, simply because they only have a handful of seats due to the state’s population. Texas wants to squeeze out an extra five seats for the effort? Sh*t, Newsome can squeeze that out of LA alone, and gild the lily in the San Grancisco bay area. The same thing for the other major population blue states threatening redistricting retaliation against Texas. In a final count, the GOP could end up getting clobbered by something akin to a five to one wipeout per Texas seat.

And here are two wild card factors that were not present in 2010 that make today’s situation even more threatening to the GOP if they follow through on this cluster f*ck. The two states that until recently were reliably red at the state level, Michigan and Wisconsin, are now either totally blue at the state level as in Michigan, or split with a Democratic state Supreme Court in Wisconsin. If those two states were still totally red at the state level, they could pull their own games and add something to the kitty. But now they’re useless to the GOP, and Michigan may be actively threatening.

And this one is far more dangerous to the GOP, and could easily provide the kill shot for a permanent or near permanent Democratic House majority. Here’s the McGuffin.

The two largest states threatening retaliation, New York and California are already laboring under a restriction that has made them less effective than they could be. For a couple of cycles now, both states have neutral redistricting commissions that do the redistricting every ten years. The competition created by that alone in the two states has helped to keep the GOP competitive in the House. The state legislatures would need to neuter those in the special session, but once they do, it’s Katie-bar-the-door. Texas wants five seats from their gerrymander? Hell, properly massaged New York City and LA could probably manage close to a dozen new seats each!

It doesn’t take a PhD in Advanced Mathematics to see that if the Democrats follow through, this is the end of the GOP as a competitive national party. And I have no doubt that it will be done. Because here’s what else is different today than in 2010. The Democratic party is different. They’re sick to death of this Lucy-and-the-football sh*t. And this generation of Democrats is younger, meaner, more calculating, and more action oriented. If Abbott pulls this, they will demolish him and the GOP. And when it’s done, it’s done.

The GOP is like a successful company with an incredibly greedy CEO. Back in 2011, when they were living high on the hog, the GOP gerrymandered the living sh*t out of every state map they could find. But because they’re greedy, they went too far, and squeezed every last drop they could get out of their maps. And now, when they desperately need to squeeze out a few more seats to make the mortgage payment on the House, there’s nothing left under the sofa cushions. Go ahead boys. Screw the last words, blindfold and last cigarette. Let’s get this over and done with right now.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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