The knee jerk reaction of the Trump campaign to bad polling news is that, “the polls were wrong in 2016 and they’re wrong now.” The polls in 2016 were not wrong. There were any number of polls that showed Clinton and Trump neck and neck and on a few occasions, Trump’s polling overtook Clinton’s. In this contest, Joe Biden took an early lead in the summer and he has maintained it. That is a different kettle of fish altogether. Politico:
— WAPO/ABC: JOE BIDEN is leading DONALD TRUMP 53-43 among registered voters, and 54-44 among likely voters. WaPo’s Dan Balz and Emily Guskin with more
ABC’S @rickklein: “Clinton won political moderates by 12 points. Biden leads among them by 47 … Clinton won independent women by four points. Biden leads among them by 57 points.”
— NYT/SIENA: BIDEN leads TRUMP 49-41. NYT’s Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns with more
— NBC NEWS/MARIST: MICHIGAN: BIDEN 52, TRUMP 44 … WISCONSIN: BIDEN 54, TRUMP 44.
BIDEN, as you see above, is above 50 in both states.
— CBS: GEORGIA: TRUMP 47, BIDEN 46 … NORTH CAROLINA: BIDEN 48, TRUMP 46.
The two states above, Georgia and North Carolina, are in a statistical tie. That is not a good sign for traditionally deep red states. 538 reports current polling in Texas showing Trump leading by one point in one poll and by three points in another. Again, not a terrific sign for the ruby red jewel in the GOP crown.
A couple of people have said how this has been a fairly boring race going by those polls you mentioned. For all the pyrotechnics Trump keeps dropping into the mix, the numbers have failed to budge in his direction once. And to think of how he blew it with the Ukraine frame…it’s nice seeing this asshole’s worst nightmare come true.
The one ominous note here, is that he keeps wanting to screw with the mail-in voting and there’s going to be a lot of that due to the pandemic. That’s the only card he’s got left to play.
If Trump has proven anything, it’s that “try” and “succeed” should never be confused for synonyms. There’s enough paranoia about mail-in ballots on our side to make in-person voting happen. Nothing we can do about COVID-19 other than stay safe but the disbelief in the disease from the other side should limit the latter’s numbers. I therefore submit that it’s only ominous if either of those trends change. Neither seems likely to happen in the time left.
It is true that he has failed often enough. but it is aloo true he (with his minions) has succeeded often enough to be alarming. Else we wouldn’t need to talk about all the damage to this country he has wrought. We need to be realistic, but not cavalier or complacent.
Succeeded at what, FAILING? Because in terms of the long term goals, those are the only ones that count. Anything you can cite as a success–tax cuts, the impeachment acquittal, even possibly the ramming through She Who Shall Not Be Named onto SCOTUS–were rigged games that no one ever had a truly realistic chance of stopping. Damage to the country, regardless of what cockeyed notions people get about it, were always secondary to the REAL goals, damn near none of which will be met.
And there is no big, beautiful wall paid for by Mexico — his #1 campaign promise.
f he (and his minions) had utterly failed at everything, Biden would not have anything to fix when he takes office. How they managed to succeed is one the issues that needs to be fixed. for example we learned that our government had been operating by assuming basic good will of the participants. That assumption is now dead. Another related example, norms were voluntarily followed without threat of punishment. Now we are going to have to codify those norms and the penalties for violating them. And so on. Whether the damage was a secondary side effect is beside the point. Remember, the cruelty is the point, and he along with his minions were quite successful at that.
The only problem is he really can’t — he has neither the skill and understanding of how voting works, nor the legal or constitutional basis. Elections are very functional and bureaucratic; “fraud” and error are virtually nonexistent. That’s why the GOP has to work so hard to prevent people from voting. Boards of election screw up very little.
I’m ready to go that voting place RIGHT NOW and vote for Uncle Joe!
Ohgod, I so want to believe it’s about over. I really do. But I’m sleeping with one eye open till after he is gone. I just won’t believe it till I know he’s going to be on Marine 1 for his final ride.
I want to see somebody sharpening the stake to drive.
Remember, Hilary won the popular vote by just the amount the polls predicted, she just didn’t win the literally anti-democratic Electoral College.
You say that as though I need to forget everything else in play.
OKAY …I don’t do polls.. esp after 2016, so gonna hold you to all these.
BTW did #TX get done before the new that #StraightTicket OPTION was upheld by Judge? .. AND #Texans NEED to be reminded of that! EG #Vote for @JoeBiden is a vote for @mjhegar and @wendydavis and @GinaOrtiz Jones.. I assume @BetoORourke is on his bullhorn about that.