This and that

Well, here we are, the “dog days” of August. Congress is still on recess, sitting around the house and listening to their constituents bitch. Emperor Numbus Nuttus just finished a week in Bedminster, using exactly the same accounting practices on his golf score as he does on his financial disclosure statements. And Democrats are turning early primary states into spontaneous “dueling banjo” concerts.

With the core of power spread over such a large area, it’s only natural that there isn’t any one overarching news story dominating the headlines right now. August is rather famous for that. But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t things going on out there that may not become important later, and you may as well get acquainted with them now, so you’re in the loop when the shit hits the fan. Here’s a few of them.

Mo’ Money – Why is it not surprising that the self proclaimed “King of Debt” starts to go ape shit whenever it looks like the economy might go south, and his markers might get called in? With more and more economists who are not on the Trump payroll, and actually have Masters and Ph.D.’s warning that a recession is coming, His Lowness sent his flying monkeys out to haunt the airwaves this Sunday, proudly proclaiming that the economy is stronger than, than, than, anything! It’s like, the strongest economy in the history of the whole world. Period!

If that’s the case, it’s strange that it’s being reported that the Kindercare at 1600 is seriously considering a payroll tax cut. You don’t cut taxes when the economy is strong, you don’t need to, there’s already plenty of money moving into the economy, that’s why it’s so strong. But there’s something else strange about this little boondoggle.

Payroll taxes are not normal. Usually, if an administration wants to increase cash flow into the economy, they cut federal income taxes, that’s the major burden most taxpayers face. Payroll taxes are the much lower taxes you pay for your Social Security and Medicare. Cutting say 10% off of your payroll taxes is not going to give most people a much larger bump than the vaunted Trump tax cuts did.

There’s two reasons why this won’t work. Trump will never get a payroll tax cut through the Democratic House, which is loathe to see anything that weakens the solvency of Social Security and Medicare. And a payroll tax cut will infuriate big money GOP donors, since payroll taxes are capped at $130,000, which means that rich shitpokes will see even less benefit than the rest of us slobs. Still, it just goes to show how panicked His Lowness is getting about the economy.

Blunt Object – Oh, my! Well, we finally got a taste of Dr. Jill Biden’s bedside manner this weekend, and it seems to be something along the lines of, “Oh! Quit being such a fucking baby, and take your flu shot!”Quite a bit more like Nurse Ratchet than Marcus Welby, MD.

The main thrust of Jill Biden’s little fireside chat to voters was “So,what if you don’t think that maybe Joe’s healthcare plan is the best one out there. He’s still the only one who can kick Trumpenstein’s sorry ass out of the White House, and don’t you forget it!”

This is actually a very shrewd and well timed ploy. Democratic primary voters still say that ousting The Mango Messiah is their #1 priority, and nobody else in the field has yet to rise to the challenge to show conclusively that they can do it any better than Biden can. With Biden still lapping the field in most polls, this could be an attempt to solidify his lead, or even expand it, ahead of the much smaller September debate, where I think you’ll see a more confident Biden, taking the fight more to Trump than to the other candidates. Let’s see if the Bidens accelerate this line of attack in the next month or so.

The road less traveled – This concerns two Democratic candidates, one a top tier, and one a second tier candidate, and it fascinates the hell outta me. As usual, the main focus of the Democratic field is on the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. But not completely.

One of Elizabeth Warren’s earliest campaign stops was in West Virginia, to tout her opioid crisis platform. After his recent reboot, Beto O’Rourke’s first stop was in Mississippi, foregoing the normal obligatory stop at the Iowa state fair. Two days later he was in Little Rock, Arkansas.

None of those three states appear to be even marginally “in play” for the Democrats in 2020, but you know what they are? They’re all still primary states, and they all have delegates. In a large field, with any kind of competitive delegate count, if the major states at play are spread out, then these secondary states are going to become critical.

In states that are largely ignored by the major candidates, like, say Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 (hint, hint), candidates that actually show up early and spend a little time can bank some early electoral good will. Mississippi especially so, as it votes on March 10, one week after Super Tuesday. If Beto O’Rourke can carry his home state of Texas on Super Tuesday, and then go into Mississippi and bring that bacon home, he likely becomes a player again, with “momentum” on his side. Elizabeth Warren has also shown an early willingness to go into red states, and aggressively push her agenda. Sustained success in these lesser noticed states could give Warren and O’Rourke a much needed shot in the arm with their delegate counts. Keep an eye on this as we go forward, and watch to see if other candidates start trying to play “catch up” in those states.

High Noon – This one is nothing new, the gun control debate has been raging in this country for decades. But there’s something new this time around, and I think that it bears close watching in the days and months ahead.

Traditionally, and they make no secret about it, the Republican party has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the NRA. The promise of high dollar NRA donations, and the pledge of millions of NRA votes has made the GOP obstinate opponents of any kind of gun legislation. On the other hand, the Democrats have always been on the side of common sense gun regulations, but they’ve been total and complete wimps about making a stand.

But that is changing. The country has become both tired of, and outraged by the continuing plague of mass shootings, especially at schools. In 2018, for the first time in the history of exit polling, people who listed gun control as their primary issue outnumbered gun access advocates at the polls. Polling for sensible gun reform is at an all time high, including background checks, voluntary gun buy back programs, and assault weapon bans. And the NRA has been noticeably weakened by a loss of both dues and corporate sponsorship money, as well as embarrassing and costly legal fights over the NRA’s spending habits.

Finally, in 2020, the Democrats seem willing, at every level, to draw a line in the sand and make this stand. They finally feel like they have strong public support at their backs, and I agree with them. The senseless violence at Parkland has mobilized and energized the youth vote, something the Democrats badly want to harness, and this issue is tailor made for them. Sadly, mass shootings will continue to occur, including at schools, and not only does Trump have the empathy level of a turnip, but the Republican mantra of “thoughts and prayers” finally seems to be going the way of the dookie bird. We’re finally about to find out whether or not that mass of gun control advocates out there are “all hat and no cattle.” I’m betting there are quite a few steer in there, and so are the Democrats.

Like I said at the top, while there is no one main course entree out there right now, there are several little pots of stew bubbling away on the back burners. And you may want to keep an eye on them, because all or any one of them may come to a boil after Labor Day, when thoughts turn more firmly back to politics again. Keep those cards and letters coming folks, and write if you find work!