I’ve been waiting for this. We’ve had some pretty good, reputable national polls come in conducted post debate, and they pretty much universally show that Kamala Harris got a 2-3 point bump from her debate performance, including two polls that showed Harris breaching the all important 50% tape.
But now we’re finally starting to see a trickle of reputable battleground state polls coming in, and it’s looking like nothing but roses for Harris and Walz. It was either an Ipsos or a Marist poll, I can’t remember which, but the results are what matters. They surveyed three Blue Wall states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
In the all important Keystone State of Pennsylvania, Harris has a 51-45 lead. In Michigan her lead is 50-45. Two critical things to note. Both results show Harris topping the magic number of 50%. And in the poll, both results are outside of the margin of error. And in Wisconsin Harris leads by 48-47. But I want to wait for a second opinion on that one, simply because I’ve seen a couple of pre debate polls that showed Harris with durable leads of 4-6 points.
Here’s the straight scoop. From everything I’ve seen, The Blue wall is the ballgame. If she can keep those states, and hold AZ and NV, she can even afford to lose GA and still be comfortably over 270. And that doesn’t even factor in the now suddenly real possibility of a flip in NC.
I’m, looking forward to seeing some updated post debate polling for AZ and NV, along with GA. The last pre debate polls I saw for AZ and NV had Harris with a lead in each of 1-2 points. Equally important, in Az Ruben Gallego was blowing out Kari Lake, and in NV, Jackie Rosen was mopping the floor with carpetbagger Sam Brown. If the Harris bump holds, she could be approaching the edge of the margin of error in both states.
Now a purely personal observation that I think is germane, and I’d love feedback from my readers in other battleground states about their experiences. Living in the battleground state of Nevada, as you’d expect we’re being inundated with political ads.
And I gotta tell you, it’s a blowout. There are positive campaign ads for Harris on at least twice an hour, and at least one Super PAC attack ad on Trump per hour. I’m lucky if I see one pro Trump and/or one anti Harris Super PAC ad a day. Worse yet, Senate incumbent Jackie Rosen has both positive campaign ads as well as anti Sam Brown attack ads on at least twice a day. And even House incumbent Susie Lee is up with positive campaign ads, and in all honesty I don’t even know the freakin’ name of her opponent. It’s like there’s an Iron Dome defense shield over the state blowing up GOP advertising.
And before you give me a ration of sh*t, I know, I know. I watch MSNBC and CNN all day, and why would the GOP spend money on those markets. Nothing could be further from the truth. Since pro and college football started, I spend Thursday nights, and all day and night on Saturdays and Sundays flipping between CBS, NBC, ABC and FOX watching the games. And football advertising on national games is prime meat for national campaigns. And while I see both pro Harris campaign ads as well as anti Trump attack ads, Trump is radio silent, both positive and negative attack ads.
Be assured that I’ll continue to monitor these polls as they come in, and if I see a pattern I’ll let you know. But the post debate poll showed that Harris won the debate by a 53-24 massacre. And now we’re seeing, both nationally as well as early battleground state post debate polls, she’s reaping the fruits of her masterful performance. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Cantaloupe Caligula stole all of the monies received by the RNC for not only his campaign, but also important down ballot races, so when they and there, the cupboard was bare.
I would surmise that is why there is a lack of advertising.
In a phrase, he has “screwed the pooch”, and every one of his so called colleagues as well.
Blue sock is right, no $$ for R advertisements, all the trump’s pocket or his lawyers’.
Which means (drum roll) – that their PLAN (as if they could ever conceive of one beyond outsourced Project 2025) is to try to steal the election by questioning (i.e., stealing) your votes, creating chaos, trying an election in the courts and trusting The Roberts/Clarence Clown Court to decide. Regardless of how YOU actually voted.
Support Marc Elias
RW have been planning “the STEAL” ever since Obama!