We all know that polls are nothing but snapshots in time, and are not predictive. But especially as you get to 27 days until election days, some non popularity sub tabs that aren’t asked as often can take on outsized importance.
And here we have one, and possibly for the last time before election day. The new New York Times/Siena poll has Kamala Harris taking the lead for the first time since she took over for Biden in July, although within the margin of error. The trend line upward continues.
But the real news is in those tasty little sub tabs, my political equivalent of my beloved macadamia nuts. And down in the middle there, not hiding out but not begging for attention either, was what may well be the keystone to Kamala Harris’s success in November.
The response showed that among self identified Republicans, an upward trend of 9% of self identified Republicans said they will be voting for Kamala Harris in November. I know, big deal, right?
I’ll explain why this is such a big deal. Pollsters get their basic pool of respondents from publicly available data from the state voter registrations files. In most states that data includes political affiliation, normally Democrat, GOP, or Independent. They use this information to equitably blend their pool for accurate results.
Which in the era of Traitor Tot can be misleading. Simply because how many times have you heard of people who actually registered as Republicans 30 years ago, but now consider themselves as independent?
Which means that this time, the pollsters took the beautiful and very informative step of flat out asking something like, Forget about what your voter registration form or your voter ID says, to which party, if any do you affiliate yourself? And only when the respondent self identified as a GOP voter did they ask them the question.
This is critical because they are GOP voters. And that means that they’ve already been GOP voters through the Trump era, after all, people don’t normally change their parties like they change their underwear. And as such, they likely voted for Traitor Tot in 2016 and 2020. So what happened this time?
As always, the devil is in the details, and pollster and The Bulwark publisher Sarah Longwell has the answers. On MSNBC today, she was almost giddy when talking about the surge. She noted that in 2020 polling and focus groups put the total of self identified GOP voters defecting to Biden was 6%. And here we are, four years later, and the total is 50% higher. Longwell noted that in 2020, in several swing states, that rural and suburban GOP defection carried the day for Biden in those states. But again, why?
Here’s why. It turns out that Longwell had just come out of a focus group of self identified GOP defectors. She asked them why they had finally had enough, and were voting with their feet. The answer was extremely satisfying, at least to me personally. While they were all pretty much sick of Traitor Tot’s sh*t, all the drama and racism, what really turned the page for them was editorials, endorsements and ads featuring former Generals, high level Trump White House advisors, and staff members spreading the word that a second Trump term would literally mean the death of our democracy.
I’ve been harping on this for months now, to the point where y’all likely wanted to hit me with a Taser, but here’s the proof, with empirical facts. What started with Olivia Troye’s Republicans For Accountability group bringing together former Trump voters in short video clips explaining why they wouldn’t vote for Trump to the inevitable high ranking defectors going public, the fire hose of people they knew and trusted, who worked with and for Traitor Tot, loudly proclaiming the national security threat he is, was the straw that broke the camel’s back. The Abandonment Permission Structure has worked like a charm.
And now the Democrats are screaming for Harris to drop the hammer on El Pendejo ex Presidente personally in the last 27 days. And I agree. But don’t get personal, remember, your persona is aspirational, not the same old swill. Instead, flood the zone with those ads featuring former Trump associates and confidants sounding the alarm. Hell, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! And those ads are working.
I told you guys and gals I’d keep you up to date on new polling information, and I am. But it’s such a joy to be able to report positive information that isn’t relied solely on opinions, but has actual teeth. 27 days left. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
It’s still going to be a tight race though.
GOTV
We don’t want a repeat of 2016.
not touching that dial, nope!
I know qualitative data points are not reliable. But. There is a guy in my neighborhood who had trump signs out even after the election in 2016. He is a reliable republican, so far the only sign he has out is for the local Sherriff race. last election, trump supporters ran down a campaign bus in Texas, one ended up in jail. Nobody is running trump trains any more. Emhoff was here, ran through Texas, not a mention from crazy trump supporters. this is in texas, trump country. just my data point
VP Harris or Mr Walz need to keep hammering the point that the traitor gave his buddy putin all of the covid supplies WE needed when so many were dying at the hands of that ignorant traitor who botched the covid response, and that he called him at least 7 times after he left office – HE IS NOT A DIPLOMAT so he cannot legally call for DIPLOMATIC reasons! I’m sure it was to sell secrets and to plot Ukraine being given to putin on a platter. Disgusting. Hammer it home VP Harris!!! We are with you!