The “Magic Number” To Keep An Eye Out For In Polls

I know, I know, polls are for sh*t. But we’re now 53 days from showtime, and there are some reasons to look at them in the proper context.

For starters the situation has stabilized. Harris is now the nominee and a known quantity. Both sides have already had their conventions, and now Labor Day is over, the kiddies are back in school, and people are starting to tune in for the home stretch.

Now the number I’m about to give you is not really for use in the national polls, although you can certainly use it if you want to, for the simple reason that the election isn’t won nationally.

Here’s the set up. Right now most reputable polls have the race within a couple of points, stuff like 48-47 or 49-45. The answer is simple math. When you add those up, they don’t equal 100%. Which means that at least in principle, there are still undecided voters out there, which means that both candidates still have room to grow.

But when I talk about the magic number, I’m not talking about one number in one poll. The polls are fairly stable right now. I’m talking about the same number repeatedly in the same poll, or better yet in multiple polls. It’s more significant if it lasts.

The Magic Number of course is 50%. Or more precisely 50%+1. because that’s what it takes to decisively win an election, any election. Because if you see Harris starting to show up repeatedly in swing states with totals like 50.1% or 50.3% or 51%, then Harris has crossed the Rubicon, and Traitor Tot is in the hurt locker.

Because at that point, especially if the lead is durable over multiple polling cycles, then His Lowness can pick up every single undecided vote out there, and it still won’t get him over the top to victory. because in order to bypass Harris, he’d literally have to steal votes from her if the poll is accurate. And the longer the result stays stable, the more likely it is accurate.

Which isn’t going to happen. Simply because after nine years the Trump political brand is toxically baked into the cake. I just wrote that Harris has a real shot at picking off sane former GOP Trump voters in GOP leaning districts who have abandoned Trump. And I also wrote that from where I’m sitting the only real undecided voters out there are undecided as whether to vote for Harris or stay home. If they were going to vote for Trump, they’d already be doing so.

And like everything else political, there’s a twist. A 50.1% result is based on a two person race. But in this election we have a couple of misfit toys, Cornell West and Jill Stein also running. And if memory serves correct, the last poll I saw had them polling at 2% and 3% respectively. Considering that, especially since Biden left the race, these space oddities are far more likely to be disgruntled Trump voters than Harris voters, it makes Trump’s concrete 47% ceiling even more daunting, and a larger Harris lead is even better.

One more thing to consider. There’s always the possibility of an October Surprise. Although with the rise of early voting, those tend to have less impact than they once did, too many votes are already in the bank. In a normal cycle, a late Harris scandal could have her shedding voters who switch to her opponent. But not this time. People who are not already voting for Trump are not going to vote for Trump. They’ll either stay home, or vote third party, neither of which does Traitor Tot any good as long as Harris stays above 47.5%.

So there you have it. Polls are neither perfect nor dispositive, we all know that. But the closer we get to election day, the more stable they tend to get. But this time we have a joker in the deck that can make the polls more likely accurate. And that’s Trump’s rock solid 47% ceiling, proven numerically over three consecutive election cycles.

And what I’m personally watching out for? If Harris begins to pull away in states like MI, NC and PA, then to me that’s a sure fire sign that she actually is siphoning off red county and district votes from disgruntled former Trump voters. And reproductive rights can play a key role in that. People like to say The 3rd time is a charm. Not for Trump. Don’t touch that dial.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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