“The Law Of Unintended Consequences.” WI Redistricting Map

This was far too long in coming, but when it finally came, it may well have come with an unintended benefit for all of the Democratic patience and resilience.

For close to 20 years the state of Wisconsin has generally been acknowledged as the most gerrymandered state in the US. And it wasn’t an accident. Well before the actual GOP master plan of 2010 to invest as heavily in state races to flip as many state legislatures in 2010 to gerrymander them into submission, Wisconsin’s GOP knew their onions.

By the time that 2011 redistricting rolled around, the Wisconsin GOP had already so thoroughly gerrymandered the state that Democrats could regularly win 53% of the vote, and yet gain no seats in the state legislature. IN fact, when call upon to do so, they could rustle up enough votes to give them a super majority, allowing them to pass laws trying to restrict the powers of any occasional Democrat who managed to win the governorship. The 2010 US legislative redistricting was a walk in the park.

But this is 2024, and there’s a new Sheriff in town. Democrat Tony Evers was reelected to a 2nd term, and despite his win, again the democrats failed to make a dent in the gerrymandered WI legislature. But there’s also a new King Solomon in town, and she makes all the difference. After a pitchfork battle, the Democrats elected a new ‘supreme Court Justice, and flipped the court over to a one vote Democratic advantage.

And just in time. After the FOP legislature redrew the states legislative districts in 2021, it was immediately challenged in Wisconsin state court by several parties. And wouldn’t you know it? Within a couple of months of the new justice taking office, the case hits the Supreme Court, and is found unconstitutional. The map was redrawn, and it finally turned the Wisconsin state legislature into what it always should have been, a toss-up legislature, leaning slightly Democratic. Governor Evers signed it into law last month, in plenty of time for the November election.

Here’s where the Democrats were as sharp as tacks. They didn’t even touch the gerrymandered WI US congressional map, nor was it a part of the lawsuit. Had they done so, the GOP would have immediately filed a suit in federal court, tying it up even longer, and likely getting the dumpster fire GOP SCOTUS blessing. They stayed local, and now the GOP is SOL (sh*t outta luck).

But here’s that pesky law of unintended consequences again. Just to be crystal clear, the Wisconsin state legislative map is not the same was the Wisconsin US congressional map. But the size of the state is still the same, as is both the population, as well as the major population centers in the state where the majority of gerrymandering, or reverse gerrymandering by necessity takes place. And there’s only so many ways you can slice an onion.

Just a couple of quick pointers on gerrymandering 101 here before we get to my example. First of all, you never gerrymander by gouging out of the middle of a district. There are few ways to gerrymander an already solidly GOP cow county. The strength of the Democratic vote is in the major urban areas. So the secret is to shave corners off of those strongholds, creating safe GOP suburban enclaves. And the other thing to remember is that the object is to maximize your district haul. You don’t create safe seats by like +6 margins. The average gerrymander safety number is +2-2.5 points.

Now on to my example. Let’s just say that state district 1 is a gerrymandered +3.5 GOP suburban district. It is bordered by Democratic stronghold districts 3, 5, and 9. You shave away at the corners of the district, narrowing the borders of your own districts just enough to push the borders into your stronghold, and end up adding +1 from each district. You have just turned this district into at worst a toss-up district, if not a lean Democratic district. That’s how you restore sanity to the state legislative maps. Don’t be greedy, turn them into toss-ups, and let your experience, personality, and money advantage do the rest to flip the district.

But here’s the possible ratf*ck. You’re trying to flip state legislative district 1. But in the Wisconsin US House map, that is the majority land mass of gerrymandered US House districts 8 and 12. And by altering the borders of state House district 1, making it a closer district, and hopefully bringing out more Democrats who were unenthusiastic before, feeling helpless, without touching the US House legislative map, and laying yourself open to a GOP federal lawsuit, you could significantly alter the voting patterns in those US districts, turning them closer, if not into toss-up seats. Especially since Traitor Tot is already driving away more and more moderate GOP voters with his doomsday language. And the GOP can’t do a goddamn thing about it since the Democrats never touched the US district map borders.

I’m sorry if this got a bit deep, but that’s what happens when I get deep into the political weeds. I’ll summarize it with the example professor Ian Malcolm gave of his Chaos Theory in Jurassic Park. If I put this drop of water here, it slows down, following microscopic changes in the hairs on the wrist. But if I put another drop down in the exact same place, it takes a different path, due to the chances in those microscopic hairs. Nothing can be repeated exactly if there are variables. And in redrawing those state legislative maps, And in doing so, that put that drop down, and it laid its trail. The Chaos Theory question now is how does that change the trajectory of the GOP drop in the 2024 elections in Wisconsin. Don’t touch that dial.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.