‘The Great Trump Recession.” Midterm Election Edition

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We are still just over 20 months from the 2022 midterm elections, and already my antennae are up and humming on a number of fronts. And the one I’m watching the closest, simply because I’ll start to actually get some concrete numbers from it the soonest, is the ongoing GOP civil war between Trump and the RNC over fundraising.

Yes, the Republican party has both county and state organizations. And they both raise their own pin money, fish fry’s, golf outings, Pin-the-tail-on-the librul contests, but that only provides them with their own basic operating funds.

But it’s the RNC where the real money gets raised, and believe me, they need it. Under ideal conditions, the GOP is going to want to have at least 221 GOP challengers running against Democratic incumbents in 2022, and that costs money, a shit pot of money.

Challengers require all sorts of things. They have no donor base, so they require fundraising help. The RNC, through the counties, also provide staffing help, and on the ground logistics. And that amount only goes up when it’s a state wide ballot slot, like a US Senate seat, and there will be at least 5 empty GOP slots to defend in 2022.

And right now, the RNC is stuck between a rock, and a very hard nother rock. On the one hand, they have anti Trump activist groups like The Lincoln Project, and Republicans for Accountability threatening major GOP donors, especially major corporations with major social media relevance of dire consequences for supporting the RNC if Trump is not completely purged. And on the other hand, they are involved in a very public feud with Trump over using his name and likeness on fundraising materials. Trump has now repeatedly demanded that all donations from loyal Trump supporters be sent directly to his Leadership PAC, with nothing going to the RNC directly.

One of the reasons that I’m so interested in this so early, is because it is something that I don’t have to wait 6-12 months to try to get a handle on. Both the RNC, as well as Trump’s Leadership PAC fall under the control of the FEC. Which means that they both are required to submit quarterly filings with the FEC. Those filings will include the amount of cash raised for the quarter, the amount of expenditures, as well as detailed spending accounts, and the total cash on hand. And the FEC filing deadline for the first quarter is midnight on March 31st.

The filing reports should be out by mid April, and they will be enlightening. Remember, Trump started his Leadership PAC under the false pretenses of a legal defense fund to fight the election results almost as soon as the votes were tallied. And in just about 2 months, Trump collected a whopping $250 million from the sheeple, almost none of which went to the legal expenses of the courtroom fights.

I am going to be looking closely at three things from the Trump Leadership PAC filings. First, I am going to be looking at the first quarter income line. Trump raised just over $250 million in November and December of last year, but that was with full social media privileges. Following the Capitol riot, Trump’s social media privileges were cut off, and he became largely radio silent. I want to see how those first quarter donations stacked up when he didn’t have carpet bomb coverage of social media.

Second, I am going to be looking closely at expenditures from the Leadership PAC. We are nowhere near an election cycle, so there should be no reason for any major expenditures. But a Leadership PAC is popular because it has almost no restrictions on the use of the funds. It will be interesting to see just how many legal fees,  travel expenses, housing expenses, and personal use expenditures Trump racked up in his first three months out of office from his new toy.

And third, I’ll be looking at the cash on hand. Remember, Trump started the quarter with just about $250 million COH. If he brings in say, $180 million, but has $275 million in expenditures, leaving him with $165 million, then he’s playing a short con, taking what he can get as long as the suckers put out. When they stop, he closes up the boiler ship. But if he gets $180 million, and has only $65 million in expenditures, then he’s building a real war chest.

On the RNC side, it’s actually much simpler. I’ll look at their 1st quarter revenue, and compare it to other previous , non campaign months to see what if any damage the Trump edicts and anti Trump threats have had on their revenue. And then I’ll look at their cash on hand, because this is the time when they should be stockpiling up for the 2022 races.

But if this interests you, and you decide to follow along with me, here is the number one thing to look for. As we get closer to the end of the year, and the start of the 2022 primary season, keep a close eye on Trump’s cash on hand. Because every dollar that Trump has in his PAC is a dollar the RNC doesn’t have to support their candidates! 

Make no mistakes. Trump isn’t going to use dollar one from his PAC to actually fund and support GOP candidates. If Trump decided to support a candidate, he’ll charge his Leadership PAC for travel expenses, and then go out and rally locally for the candidate, building his ego.

Right now, both House Minority Leader McCarthy, as well as Senate Minority Leader McConnell, are busy making chest thumping noises about retaking both the House and the Senate in 2022. But in order to do that, they are going to need a shit load of RNC cash available to spend in GOP challengers. Trump isn’t running for anything in 2022. So, pretty much every dollar he has in his Leadership PAC is one less dollar that the RNC has to try to get candidates over the top. At a time when they may well be looking at severely depressed corporate donations, depending on how much of a horses ass Trump decides to be. Don’t give up on the Democratic majorities just yet.

Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35

 

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4 COMMENTS

  1. Trump-O is trying to create a situation where any Republican who wants to run in 2022 will be forced to bow down to him and kiss his fat ass to receive His blessing of cash thus ensuring the complete loyalty of his hand picked party.

    Quite diabolical actually….and Trump is too FN stupid to come up with with it…..it has Roger Stone’s greasy fingerprints all over it.

    • They can bow down and he’ll STILL keep the money for himself. They grovel and grovel and he kicks them in the teeth every time.

  2. Does anyone have insight on the Iowa Senate seat? I mean, assuming Sen Grassley doesn’t run. I wonder how feasible a pickup might be for an open seat…I honestly have no idea with Iowa.

  3. It’s also not just his social media but he hasn’t sent out a single email to his list since about 1:30pm on January 6. I’ve gotten plenty from conservative and GOP organizations and a few from Don Jr but nothing from him.

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