For the last week or so I’ve been silently waiting for that first brave media soul to take the plunge and call it what it was. I had kind of figured it would take until sometime after Labor Day.
Wrong again. So, what else is new. Yesterday Ari Melber on The Beat became the first major network host to make the first suggestion of The Harris Wave. In the backdrop was about a 20′ wave with a solo rider in the curl. Turns out this was as good a time as any;
- In The Beat yesterday, Clinton campaign guru put it well, I can see Trump winning this race by about 1.5 points, and I can see Harris winning this thing by 5 points. But there’s no way Trump wins this thing by 6 points, or Harris wins by 1.5. The battle lines are being clearly drawn
- Four years ago this week a Monmouth national poll had Biden beating Trump by 5 points. He won by 4/5 points. The same poll released today has Harris beating Trump by 5 points nationally
- The Democrats announced a multi hundred thousand dollar outreach to American citizens living abroad. It wasn’t clear if the military is included in that outreach
- In a new poll Harris is tied or leading Trump in 6 out of the 7 battleground states, trailing only in Nevada within the margin of error
- With non college educated white voters, Trump led Biden by 26 points. Against Harris that lead has been cut in half to 13 points
- The Harris rallies aren’t just pulling in heavy crowds, they’re providing the campaign with a glut of new volunteers. The rally in Arizona brought in some 4000 new volunteers
And that’s just the news that is good for Harris and the Democrats. Here’s just some of the stuff that while presumably positive for the Democrats, is specifically toxic to the GOP and Traitor Tot;
- Beggar Vance isn’t drawing any better on the road than Trump is, and normally worse
- Vance’s tasteless slur on Tim Walz’s military service has generated an online petition slamming him, which now has more than 10,000 signatures
- As noted last night by my good friend Denis Elliot, the Trump campaign had to pony up $87,000 in advance to Asheville, North Carolina before he could hold his dog-and-pony-show today. Apparently Trump’s ambulance chasers aren’t the only ones who have him on the pay-as-you-go-plan
- In addition to the newly minted Republicans for Harris group that started in Arizona, and is now spreading like moss roses, and brand new Evangelicals for Harris group held an online mixer and signup event that drew some 70,000. And these aren’t liberal Evangelicals, they’re hitting on traditional Evangelical chat rooms and message boards
Here’s why this is so important. A month ago, when Biden was still in the race, and Trump was cruising towards the finish line, the GOP was gleefully talking about expanding the map into states like Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Minnesota. The idea being if nothing else, to force the other side to spend money and resources in what should be safe places that they hadn’t planned to spend in.
Instead, the Democrats have already expanded the map to the formerly out-of-reach states of Georgia and North Carolina, both of which are tied, and casting covetous eyes at Ohio and even Florida, with pro choice initiatives on the ballot. Suddenly it’s Trump trying to shore up what he was previously ready to ignore as a bird-in-the-hand.
And now the Democrats are using economic warfare. Republicans for Harris is already growing, and that’s grassroots small money donations and activism he has to try to woo back. But with a 70,000 strong jump off, Evangelicals for Harris has the potential to finally start to peel away parts of Trump’s most loyal base. Trump has neither the resources, the time, the attention span, or a new line to offer them to try to woo them back.
And here’s why I am so confident that not only will Harris win, the Democrats will swamp the House, and hold the Senate. As President Biden himself explained over the weekend in an interview, one of the reasons why he dropped out was when down ballot Senate and House incumbents in battleground states flatly told him that he was a drag hard for them to overcome. As such, if he stayed on the ticket, they would be forced to run against him rather than with him in the fall.
The Democrats could do that for the simple reason that the Democratic party is not the Biden Cult of Personality. During his first term, members of both chambers regularly rose to their feet to disagree with some of Biden’s plans and agenda. They would have no difficulty in distancing themselves from Biden in the general election.
The GOP on the other hand is f*cked. Sideways. They have spent the last eight years tethering themselves to Traitor Tot with barbed wire. Even after the national tragedy and disgrace of January 6th, they carried his water for him. They rally with him, and kick his can on the Sunday morning shows.
The Democrats could split with Biden when he was a drag, and now they can just as easily wholeheartedly embrace Harris. There’s no way that any GOP incumbents can break from Trump, now matter how quickly his campaign spirals out of control. Even non MAGA incumbents are tainted, having signaled their acceptance with their silence.
To be sure, what appears to be a blue wave forming isn’t a 20′ curl yet, but neither is it something that just crashed over a break wall. But it’s not the kind of thing you get in a wave pool. Believe it or not, the situation could start to clarify in the next month. There’s the Democratic convention next week, followed by the Trump-Harris debate on September 10th, and Trump gets sentenced a week later. Harris is already outside the margin of error in the bellweather national poll that showed Biden cruising home in 2020, and more and more battleground polls are showing the noose tightening around Trump’s neck. 83 days left. Work like hell now, sleep on November 6th. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
It doesn’t have to be a 20 foot wave, 15 will be fine.
And waves that size, on their own, are known as tsunamis.
My “White Dudes for Harris” cap just came in the mail, and it got lots of positive reactions in downtown Lansing, MI! Latest polls show Kamala taking the state by 5-7%…
I contacted my sister who lives overseas to get her absentee ballot. she has always wondered if her vote was ever counted. but she still makes the effort.
i also sent an email to Tony Gonzalez the south Texas rep telling him I was disgusted with his criticism of a fellow service member. I never served, for health issues (not bone spurs)but I respect the service of all who do. tell Tony that McCain would not disrespect another service member. he should retract his criticism.
I’m remembering the 2008 wave for Obama, and seeing similarities, even if the state mix is a little different. That also was a wave that kept getting stronger.
I am writing postcards to registered democrats in swing states, this case Georgia. They’re just reminders to vote and it’s one more way to help turnout. If anyone is interested, the website is turnoutpac.org/postcards.
Trust me when I tell you you don’t want to know why but I got more experience than I ever wanted cleaning out a clogged sewer line in the years I worked in the funeral home before joining the Marines. I’d ride with Gene or his son Howard to the plumber in our town with the largest operation to pick up the ole roto rooter and other equipment. I learned an old plumber’s saying about only needing to know three things to be a plumber: Hot’s on the left and cold’s on the right, water flows downhill and shit stinks!
I think of Trump as some rich dude who lived a lifetime (and Trump is OLD) on top of a hill shitting out copious amounts that slid down a steep enough slope he didn’t have to see or smell it so he didn’t care. But it all built up over time. What’s happened to him with Biden stepping aside is somehow finding himself down at the bottom of the hill and all that shit of his rumbling down to bury him. He can no more outrun it than a mountain climber can outrun an avalanche of snow. I for one relish the prospect of Trump being buried under a massive avalanche of his own shit.