All politics are local
The Virginia Governor’s race tomorrow is as tight as a child proof bottle cap. Those of you who know me know that I am a die hard fan of the circle within circle theory, and that no single election is totally homogenous. Outside factors always come into play.
Well, here’s one helluva outside factor. The Virginia Governors office isn’t the only thing on the ballot tomorrow. There are 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates, and all of them are up tomorrow as well. At the moment, the Democrats hold a 55-34 advantage, which is why Governor Northam has gotten so much of his agenda through. And all of those seats are up for grabs tomorrow.
GOP Gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin is walking the ultimate tightrope. He is using every dog whistle he can to attract Trump base voters, but in the suburbs, in which he must make inroads, has run as if he never heard of Trump. He skipped a Steve Bannon fundraiser where Trump phoned in his praise, and they pledged allegiance to a flag carried on January 6th. Plus, his campaign announced that he will not take part in a virtual rally Trump is holding for him tonight.
But here’s where the wicket gets sticky. Almost every one of the 100 GOP candidates running for seats in the House of Delegates are running purely on the Trump platform. After all, that’s how they survived the base heavy primary to get to the general election in the first place.
Which is worse for Youngkin than the Trump rally. In 2016, Trump sleepwalked into the presidency in a low energy, low enthusiasm, elect a fool year. But the very next year, in 2017, suburban voters, especially white suburban women, a GOP stalwart, turned out in protest to propel the Democrats to within a coin toss of tying the Virginia House. And they finished the job in 2019, as well as handing the Democrats the state Senate.
Look, Youngkin can run any kind of a campaign he wants, between Gene Kelly raindrops with Trump, but the one thing that he can’t do is to control what the candidates below him are doing and saying. And they are all slobbering Trombies!
This is what I’m going to be watching tomorrow night in Virginia. This time around, the early in person and mail in voting is scheduled to be released first, which should give McAuliffe a healthy early lead. But when it gets to the same day vote, I’m going to be watching the district delegate races closely. The majority of Virginia’s population is in the northern suburbs, and Richmond and its suburbs, so that’s where the majority of delegate seats are. And if those districts start coming in as Democratic blowouts, then McAuliffe should be fine. If not, then it’s going to be a long night. Don’t touch that dial.
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Thanks for the insight. I’ll put away the whiskey & unload the gun. No use taking any chances. Just kidding in case some idiot calls 911. I may yell at the dog 2morrow night. She knows me well enough by now to hide if the torch bearer for the insurrection gets enough lemmings to go over the deep end. Shes been hearing it for 5 years now. On second thought I’ll keep the whiskey handy til safely on the other shore.
to be honest I prefer the chardonnay. The dog already knows where all the tables are to hide under.
As it appears the liars, traitors, & religious hypocrites are set to win in Virginia, I remind myself of 2 things: never underestimate the sheer stupidity of the American voter, & how fucking scared white people are of black people. To think this asshat’s supporters brought a flag used to beat cops at the capital to his rally & he’s the new governor. WTF! Be prepared to watch the #1 serial killer jack off on America’s face. U asked for it you fucking Democrat cowards & ur constant PC bullshit. U brought reason to a knife fight & ur guts are on the ground. Good job nice boys & girls. Glad u weren’t at normandy.