What’s white and crawls up your leg? Uncle Ben’s perverted rice
Well, it’s all over but the shouting, and there probably won’t be any of that either. And just to make sure nobody had a panic attack, MSNBC actually called South Carolina for Biden four minutes earlier than they called New Hampshire for Trump, and that was in like 16 minutes.
The biggest takeaway from Biden’s South Carolina victory was that all of those wimpy Democratic mouth breathers and fainting couch denizens out there should just down, shut up, and let those with the intestinal fortitude for it deal with the grown up sh*t.
Oh NO!, white moderates and progressives are running from Biden like the kid with cooties! Oh NO!, Black men are running to Trump, taking their women with them! Oh NO!, Independents and moderates are abandoning Biden for 3rd party candidates!
Bullsh*t. Bullsh*t. And Bullsh*t. Biden is running at 97% of the black vote, and 97% of the white vote. If anything the Biden camp should be dancing a jig after this performance, for several reasons. Let’s just take the three listed above one at a time.
First, the one that white moderates and progressives are fleeing Biden, likely to an upcoming 3rd party candidate. Industrial grade bullsh*t. As a matter of fact, Biden should be overjoyed. Biden is getting 97% of the vote in the five whitest counties of the state, a 33% increase over his 2020 performance in a highly competitive primary. The white vote is consolidating behind Biden, just as it did in 2020 starting with South Carolina.
Next on the menu, that black men are abandoning Biden for Trump and taking their women with them. EPA Superfund cleanup strength bullsh*t. First, Biden is getting 97% of the vote in the five most heavily
African American counties in the state. Second, according to data from black Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher, black men are more likely to vote in lock step with their women than any other ethnic breakdown.
Last but not least. That Independents and progressives are abandoning Biden, likely for an upcoming 3rd party candidate. Rose bush fertilizer strength bullsh*t. Disaffected independents and moderate Democrats are exactly the constituency that the crazy California bead lady and the unknown congressman are trying to reach. But Biden is getting 97% of the vote, Williamson is getting 2%, and that other doofus is getting 1%. If there was going to be a mass migration to a 3rd party candidate, it would start showing up in the primaries. Trump himself is the wooden stake for a 3rd party vampire.
Now for a few general numbers, but nothing as deep into the weeds as Traitor Tot regularly smacks a golf ball before picking it up and throwing it back onto the fairway.
Steve Kornacki on MSNBC is predicting that when all is said and done, Democratic turnout will be about 33% of the 2020 general election turnout. A rad to the shy side, but easily explainable. In 2020 we had a national election for the soul of the country, and turnout was sky high. Biden is basically tunning unopposed in the primary. Personally, I would have been expecting about a 25% turnout, so Biden is actually running ahead of what I was looking for.
Now for a personal observation. Biden’s messaging finally seems to be getting through. At least two black voters interviewed on MSNBC today both gave the same reason for voting for Biden, Unfinished business. Biden’s early campaign main message is Promises made, promises kept. At least some of those accomplishments are finally starting to pay dividends, and voters want to see Biden finish the job.
Now for the two pieces of bad news for El Pendejo Presidente. First, even though Biden was a write in candidate in New Hampshire, he scored a larger vote percentage than Trump, who was on the ballot.
And another critical factor to consider. On the Democratic primary in New Hampshire, it was strictly a sham primary. Since New Hampshire jumped the line in holding their primary, the DNC stripped them of their delegates. Voters literally had nothing to gain by voting other than showing support for biden. As I understand it, if New Hampshire wants to get delegates, they’ll need to hold another primary on their DNC sanctioned date.
Now for the worst news for Trump. As I already posited, while turnout may have been a little lower than pundits would have wished for, it was impressive for an uncontested primary. And as I also noted, there is absolutely no sign of moderates and independents bolting Biden for a potential 3rd party.
Bad news for Trump. Because as with New Hampshire, South Carolina is an open primary state. And just as in New Hampshire, I’ve heard reporting pf the Democrats running a stealth campaign to turn out Democratic and independent voters for the GOP primary instead, to vote for Nikki Haley. And South Carolina won’t have the kind of weather related issues Iowa and New Hampshire did.
There’s some electoral loose change sitting on the Democratic primary side of the bar. The only questions are how much is in the pile, and who gets it, the bartender or Nikki Haley?
The last poll I saw for South Carolina had Trump up by 51-33%. But depending on how low the GOP primary turnout is, especially with Trump’s wide lead in the polls, and how much Democratic and independent loose change is on the bar, if Haley could scoop up just 4-5% of that change, now you’re looking at something closer to a 51-40% outcome.
Which is right in Haley’s wheelhouse. Remember her mantra for these primaries, Just do better in the next primary than in the last one. In Iowa Haley got 20% of the votes. In New Hampshire, in a two man race, she banked 43%. Unless she gets lucky, in a larger, more diverse state, with better weather, she may be hard pressed to improve on 43%. But even if she only hits 40%, she’s garnering a good share of the delegates, and scoring well enough to be considered a serious contender.
So just cheer up, everybody. Biden’s numbers are strong, with no signs of erosion for a 3rd party. Polling numbers are starting to show Biden closing on or passing Trump, and he has a healthy campaign fund. Best yet, after 3 long years of not getting enough credit for the pocket miracles he’s pulled out of his hat, the message is finally starting to get through. Patience mon ami.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Great news for Biden, and at the same time worrisome if not bad news for Trump. Now THAT is what I call a twofer!
“Unless she gets lucky, in a larger, more diverse state, with better weather, she may be hard pressed to improve on 43%.”
Well, South Carolina as a whole may be a “larger, more diverse state” than New Hampshire or Iowa, its GOP primary is most decidedly no more diverse than either New Hampshire or Iowa. Unless the media was covering every single precinct and interviewing the Black voters coming out and asking them “For whom did you vote,” there’s no real way to determine how many Black voters cast their votes in the GOP primary. (Racial and other demographic breakdowns following general elections are done solely from exit polling where all voters are using the same ballot. In primary elections, voters would have to be asked which ballot they used–Democratic or Republican–before any demographic takeaways could be determined.)
Also, while Blacks make up a sizable portion of the state’s total population, according to the 2020 Census, “Blacks (non-Hispanic)” only comprise about 25% of the state’s total population (the demographics section of the South Carolina Wiki page is beyond confusing–the “alone” column doesn’t even add up to 100% and the “total” column adds to 103.9%, largely because of the “Hispanic or Latino” category which has a dash in the “alone” column but a 6.9% figure in the “total” column; the “alone” figure for Blacks is 24.8% while the “total” figure is 26.3%).
Being a native midwesterner and living so long in northern Virginia (suburban DC), even though when I was married and visiting in-laws near the NC border I never really “got” political reporting when the “black vote” was discussed. Sure, I’d had brief visits to true southern states but never really looked around. 25% of the population in a state is well above the national average. Yes, the percentage is higher in some other southern states but SC is as I said well above the national average. It’s also a state with a decently mixed economy. Agriculture, industry including a BMW plant and a fair sized military footprint as well. Not to mention tourism. So I respectfully disagree with you about it being a reasonably diverse state and the first such one on the primary calendar each cycle.
Remember last time Biden was dead in the water until South Carolina.