Well, I just let my polling warning freak flag fly, so what better to follow it up with than an article about polling? But it’s OK, because these are the kinds of polls that mostly don’t deal with national or battleground state numbers, they’re more nuanced.
By now you all know that when it comes to polling, rather than depending on individual polls taken at a single moment in time, especially when it comes to issues, I prefer what are called Trend Lines. Nothing complicated or fancy there. All a trend line is is the same poll from the same pollster over an extended period of time. This can be very useful, not only in polling trends, but also in indicating the national mood on a particular issue.
Let’s start there. When Biden was topping the ticket, Traitor Tot’s three bread and butter campaign issues were Immigration, the economy and inflation. Trump led Biden by 18 points on the economy, 19 points on inflation, and 22 points on immigration. Those are the kinds of numbers that eventually led Biden to step aside, they were untenable.
Once Harris took over the top spot, the polls were similar to the ones with Biden. But here comes the McGuffin. In the two months or so since Harris held her rollout, there has been a startling change to the patterns on those issues. Personally, I think a lot of it has to do with Harris’s explicit economic plans as opposed to Trump’s disjointed claptrap.
In the last polls I’ve seen, Trump’s edge on the economy and inflation is down to a scant 1-2 points. And in two polls taken in the last week, Harris actually leads His Lowness by 2-3 points. This means that not only has Harris negated Trump’s double digit advantage in two of his marquee issues, she may now hold the edge. And on immigration, Trump has gone from +23 to +11, and that was taken before Harris’s trip to the border and immigration speech. We should start seeing those numbers appear next week. And pundits love to solemnly intone People vote their pocketbooks.
Here’s why I love trend lines. I love them because there are no personalities involved. The questions are there for people to give their opinions on issues, and which candidate would better handle them. And when you see an extended trend line going in one direction, there’s no margin of error for that sh*t. People are giving their opinion at the moment on that issue.
Now on to early voting. Tomorrow is Friday, so by Tuesday or Wednesday we should have some new numbers on early voting turnout. But the last numbers I saw were pretty much lights out for the Democrats. Pre-Trump both sides, Democrats and republicans used early mail in and in person voting liberally, and the end result was pretty much a push.
But with Traitor Tot’s reliance on the evils of perfectly safe methods of early voting, targeting them as rife with fraud, the Democrats have cleaned up on early voting of all forms. Often they’ve put together the kind of early turnout that is impossible for the GOP to overcome on election day. And so far, the early voting numbers I’ve seen are near or at record numbers. And one more thing to remember. Every day or two from here on out, more states will start early voting.
Now for another little factoid. As I’ve said previously, Traitor Tot is not generating any new voter enthusiasm. He’s not just a known entity, he’s f*cking fossilized. That’s why his ceiling is a piss miserable 46%. But many states are reporting very high levels of new voter registration. And if they’re not going to Traitor tot, and they aren’t, and they’re not going to no-shows like Jill Stein and Cornell West, there’s only one they’re registering to vote. And if they’re registering at this late date, they’re voting.
One last nugget I want to share with you. I’m with former GOP strategist and The Circus creator Mark McKinnon. From here on out, forget about undecided voters. That’s nothing but self indulgent bullsh*t sophistry. Trump has been hard wired into your brain for the last nine freakin’ years! If you’re looking for a new reason to vote for Trump, you ain’t gonna find it. And if the last nine years of Traitor Tot’s criminal outrages haven’t pushed you into the Harris camp already, then there’s nothing she can say now to bring you over.
So that’s it. From where I’m sitting, all of the pieces are in place, the only thing left is the results. But if you want a harbinger, here it is. Trump can’t win the popular vote, or most battleground state votes, and he knows it. His whole strategy has been to slam the system, especially early voting as corrupt, and try to depress Democratic turnout.
That could work against Biden, since nobody wanted either of them on the ballot. But Harris has brought a new vision of forward looking progress and enthusiasm. If early voting results, and then election day results show anything anywhere near 2020 levels, then start popping corks. Personally I believe that the 2024 turnout results will exceed the 2020 results. People just want El Pendejo ex Presidente in the rear view mirror once and for all. 32 days.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Time to put a fork in 💩-45… metaphorical fork.