Look, everybody knows this election is going to be decided on the margins, and I’m not disputing that. To start with, I’ll just say that I don’t think that the margins are quite where some people think they are.
For starters, as I’ve written previously, in 2016 the reason the critical polls in districts and states were flawed was due to poll liars. These were voters who were mentally and emotionally committed to Trump, but were embarrassed to admit they were backing an ass clown, so they lied. And I’m predicting right here that you’re going to see the reverse in three weeks. Trump’s scumbag army is so insane that nobody wants to admit they’re getting off of the Klown Kar. And so they continue to profess fealty to Trump and his brownshirts, right up until they get into the voting booth on November 5th.
But now let’s talk about the margins themselves, and use some actual numbers to give them context. As we speak, there are former Trump advisors, aides and confidants that are out touring the country telling rallies why GOP voters should not give Traitor Tot another spin. I’m talking about people like Liz Cheney and former Pence national security advisor Olivia Troye.
This is important because former GOP pollster Sarah Longwell has reported that her focus groups of undecided GOP and independent voters shows that the one major factor that is turning them away from El Pendejo ex Presidente is former staff, aides, and Generals telling everybody what a clear and present danger Trump is. That’s a direct gauge on that marginal vote. Which is why I keep saying that the Democrats have to keep running those ads right up to the minute the polls open.
Which brings us to the margin buster. The superstar rise of Kamala Harris nationally after Biden stepped down brought something I had never seen before. Think about it for a moment. Back in 2016 I don’t remember seeing a group called Bernie Bros for Trump. In 2012 there were no Weak knee liberals for Romney. In 2008 there were no Crusty old white moderate Democrats for McCain. And in 2004 there wre no Never Bushies running to vote for Obama.
But in 2024, pretty much every core GOP constituency with a grassroots organization that can figure out how to hold a video town hall and fundraiser has a Harris Chapter. There’s Republicans for Harris, Cat Ladies for Harris, White Dudes for Harris, Black Men for Harris, Latinos for Harris, and even Evangelicals for Harris. And they’re all putting their money where their mouths are. They’re donating to the grassroots organizations to do things to help to elect Harris. And if you put your money into something, your vote is likely to follow.
And here’s where the numbers come in. Between attendance and donations, these groups weren’t exactly puny spuds. The totals I heard ranged anywhere from 25,000 for White Dudes for Harris, to almost 60,000 pledges to vote for Harris from Evangelicals for Harris, to over 200,000 from Black Women for Harris. And I’m sure there are some in there that I’m missing.
Now granted, none of these are movements covering millions of people, but they don’t have to be. We’re talking about the margins here, remember? Soft and independent voters who may ultimately decide the whole shebang. So, let’s just do a little dumb math here, the kind I’m best at.
Let’s start at the low end, a 25,000 haul. Spread evenly over 50 states, that’s what appears to be a piddly 500 vote change. The 60,000 haul is about 1,100 per state. And the 250,000 group assays out to about 5,000 votes per state. That’s about 7,500 per state likely switching from Trump to Harris.
But here’s the McGuffin. Those new converts are highly unlikely to be evenly split in every state. Evangelicals for Harris will likely be spread with a more rural tilt to it, due to the Evangelical demographics. But all the rest of those, by basic demographics tend to be more heavily tilted to more urban areas, including battleground states with large urban and suburban areas. Figure closer to 10,000 votes per battleground state as a rough estimate.
And Georgia was won by the Democrats by 11,780 votes. Arizona was won by just over 12,000 votes, and Pennsylvania I believe was under 20,000. North Carolina may be an outlier, since it has both large urban areas as well as a large Evangelical community, so Harris could get an extra boost.
This is what the margins are all about. The states that I listed were all states that Biden won, with the late exception of North Carolina. Even if the actual defections are only half of what I put, that’s still a cushion for Harris, and fewer votes for Traitor Tot. And keep this in mind. The numbers I quoted were all the numbers reported from the initial town hall and fundraiser. Who knows how much they’ve grown exponentially since then. But in an election like this one, every vote counts. Just something to consider.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
That does seem to be a big advantage for Kamala. I don’t remember Biden having nearly as much crossover republican support as she is having.
“And in 2004 there wre no Never Bushies running to vote for Obama.”
Um, Murf? Obama didn’t run in 2004; that was John Kerry’s year. (And, it’s a MAJOR reason why so many Democrats turned on Hillary in 2008. They’d been pressing her to run against Bush but she had promised that if she was elected to the Senate from New York, she would serve a full term before even considering a run for the White House. Seems pretty interesting that many of the same folks who made such a fuss about her “Iraq War vote” in 2008 didn’t have as much of an issue in 2004; and, as I’ve noted before, most of her other 2008 *male* primary opponents who’d been in the Senate in 2002 and 2003 had voted to give Bush that authorization but none of them were chastised or criticized for it the way Hillary was. That’s why the Iraq War vote was just mostly smoke and mirrors and being pissed off that she wouldn’t go back on her promise in 2004 was the real reason for 2008’s “Hillary hate.”)
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