If you’re having a boring Saturday and need something engaging, one can do no better than checking in on new polling done by Fox News (!) showing Harris now taking a lead in two critical battleground states. This is a shocking new development because Trump had previously been leading in these states. It is also critical because – as everyone knows – Harris could be leading by 10 but the election will be decided in the six to seven battleground states.
Here are two states that continue to drift toward Harris. According to the Fox News poll:
Former President Trump has lost his edge in Georgia and North Carolina in the latest Fox News Power Rankings, giving Vice President Kamala Harris a lead in the overall forecast for the first time. However, with six toss-up states on the map worth a combined 78 electoral votes, this election is still anyone’s game.
Each result shows a Harris gain in percentage points and a surge after the debate. Given that the above polls were conducted and released a few days after the debate, Harris’s full bounce has yet to fully measure the surge. Fox News has even more good news to deliver, from The New Republic:
As a result, Harris had taken the lead in Fox’s Power Ranking predictions with 241 electoral votes to Trump’s 217. Hemmer noted that this was the first time Harris had pushed past Trump in their predictions.
Hear that? The first time that Harris has taken the lead in secured states on each side. It’s a small lead but perhaps indicative of a trend that will continue as voters pay more attention in the last six weeks before the election. But one must hope that Harris absorbs the inevitable “October Surprise” that each side prepares.
Additionally, there is more good news. From The Guardian:
A Reuters/Ipsos poll, the first to be conducted since the debate, had Harris ahead by five points, 47 to 42%, a 1-point rise on the lead recorded in the week after last month’s Democratic national convention. A separate Morning Consult survey published on Thursday showed a similar lead, 50 to 45%, up from the three- to four-point advantage Harris was registering before the debate.
We all know that the five national percentage points are essentially meaningless, though the numbers are more significant when the battleground movement indicates that the surge is not just moving in big blue states like California or New York.
Kamala Harris will almost surely get four to six million more votes than Trump in the popular vote. But recall, Joe Biden won the election with a seven million popular vote advantage and yet his electoral college victory came about with the narrowest of margins in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. This election will be very close no matter who wins, thus sending a shiver down Democratic and Independent voters’ spines if Trump loses. If he wins it will be the most solid election in history. No problems!
The new polls indicate new ways for Harris – previously down in battleground states – to get to the all-important 272. According to Josh Krashaar, editor in chief of Jewish Insider in an interview on Fox News and as reported by The New Republic:
Now, with Georgia and North Carolina looking a whole lot more competitive, there are a lot more possibilities for the Democrats,” Krashaar said. “You could—you could win Georgia and not have to win Pennsylvania. And a lot of the Sun Belt states open up a whole slew of possibilities for the Democratic ticket.”
Yes. New states on the electoral map gives a candidate new combinations to win the election. Speaking of swing state polls, there is new data out of Pennsylvania showing a massive Trump lead. Don’t worry, though – it shows a “Cookie Poll” from a local Pennsylvania bakery:
Read the latter part where they predicted the outcomes of 3|4 elections the one they got wrong was Biden.They sold 31K #Trump and 5K Biden😡 #Rigged Trump crushing #Harris in Pennsylvania bakery's election #cookie poll': 'People are upset' | Fox News https://t.co/9Z6khZjNLa
— Eva Marie (@EvaMarieGrace) September 14, 2024
But there is solid good news from CNN:
BREAKING: New reporting from CNN shows how Kamala Harris is surging among women voters and how this surge is likely to put Kamala Harris in the Oval Office. Retweet so all Americans see how Kamala Harris has inspired so much energy and enthusiasm. pic.twitter.com/broo2KIohm
— Kamala’s Wins (@harris_wins) August 16, 2024
We knew that Harris decisively won the debate, we knew she would get some kind of bounce, we did not necessarily see her pulling ahead in battleground states. The fact that she is ahead in an important few could also indicate that she is in an upward trend that might pull her more comfortably ahead.
As we saw in 2020, one doesn’t want a win by only a few thousand in a few swing states. It matters in a “stolen election!” world. Good news all around today, but continue with GOTV efforts, pretty please.
God bless. I can be reached at [email protected]
Jason! You should explain what happens when the electoral votes are tied, that would be a zinger & an education. Thanx for the poll update!!