Here is a thing. For reasons passing understanding, someone at the Des Moines Register decided to fork over otherwise good money to poll Iowa’s voters’ choice for president. The result is sending shockwaves throughout the race. In a state everyone presumed to be so red as to be written off, Kalama Harris is leading Donald Trump by three percentage points. Surprise.
Both campaign managers have a bit of explaining to do as to how it was that Iowa and its six electoral votes were left hanging in the breeze when actually up for grabs. According to the Register:
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election… The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden.
So what happened in Iowa between September and October? It doesn’t look like anything that didn’t happen everywhere else. It must be a good sign for the Harris campaign because one thing most certainly did “happen everywhere else.” Donald Trump’s problem with women voters happened and that problem must cross state lines.
The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or who are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer said.
Yeah, and that would look to be something that the Trump campaign would try to remedy if they weren’t so busy making it worse. The poll was taken during the same period in which Trump declared that he was going to make women safe “whether they liked it or not.” The Trump campaign might deny that the comment had much of an impact on anything but it appears to have taken hold whether the campaign likes it or not.
More stuff about women? Of course:
Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin… senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%.
I’ll be damned. Who – besides absolutely everyone, would have thought that women as 53% of voters could possibly make that big a difference? It is almost like the campaigns need something, something like a focus on women’s issues, focus groups – something, anything to win over those finicky voters. Maybe next time.
No one should be spiking a football. And yet, still… Iowa? Then again, why not? They have women in Iowa. Maybe someone ought to do more of this polling stuff in states that were once considered too big a reach. Do something totally random like poll Kansas next, maybe even more random, Oregon – something like that. No – it’s too late. “THE” poll comes Tuesday.
No one is spiking anything – other than beer. Most political-types are surely trying to catch their breath. But if Iowa goes to Harris someone is going to have a lot of explaining to do. The Des Moines Register will likely fork over the money for the interview.
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Well, pity it wasn’t a state with some E.C. votes that would make a difference. Hopefully this translates to other states but especially the swing states.
I’m wondering where the sample was taken from in IA. A sample from Iowa State and Univ. of Iowa would poll very differently from most of IA.
Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. She knows our state and is rarely wrong.
They won’t be able to deny or spin the results of the last poll, the national one. The one that’s not just an opinion, but a decision.
Then we’ll find how much pressure their thumb has been holding down on the scales of their ‘fair and accurate’ polling.
Which appears to be quite a bit.
“They won’t be able to deny or spin the results of the last poll, the national one. The one that’s not just an opinion, but a decision.”
Really?
You mean, UNLIKE their reaction in 2020? The one where they denied and spun the results for two months?
Given he’s figuratively raped the women of this country, I guess he’ll live with their reactions “like it or not”. Apparently they don’t like it, and want this adjudicated rapist to face all his legal charges as just an ordinary rapist. About time ladies.
Older women like me remember the country preRoe Unplanned pregnancies forced you to either give birth and give the kid up for adoption or single motherhood or take your chances with a back alley abortionists. Women died. If you had complications doctors were forced to report the “crime” but at least they could save her life without having to consult the hospital’s lawyer to see if she was close enough to death before providing an abortion.
I knew of 5 women who had to drop out because they got pregnant. Held the hand of another who was able to get the primitive version of Plan B.
Some of the 65+ are voting for Harris over Republicans slobbering at the possibility if ending Social.Security and Medicare, but the women remember life before Roe.
We remember. And we don’t want our granddaughters to have to take those risks.
WE REMEMBER.