Rogues Gallery. Why You Don’t Give Up On November

The GOP is still strutting around acting like they’re about to have a bumper crop harvest in November, especially in the House. And it may well be true. But I have my doubts. Because right now, there are 36 Q-Anon Trombies running for Congress. And from where I’m sitting, all bets are off.

On her now weekly show tonight, Rachel Maddow made my point in bright lights, by showing a Murderer’s Row of GOP candidates running in 2022, and a brief synopsis of their qualifications. It went something like this;

• Nebraska GOP Gubernatorial front runner, Charles Herbster, who is Trump endorsed, is now credibly accused by 8 women, including a GOP state Senator, of sexual assault and other egregious conduct
• Nebraska GOP incumbent Representative Jeff Fortenberry was running for reelection until he was convicted of 3 charges in federal court that only required 2 hours of jury deliberation
• In Pennsylvania, a GOP Senate candidate endorsed by Trump had to jump ship after claims from his soon-to-be ex-wife of abuse of both her as well as their children
• Pennsylvania Lt. Governor candidate Teddy Daniels, endorsed by Trump, is going to court to fight a protective order that bars him access to his own house based on emotional and mental abuse during his divorce
• In Georgia, ex NFL has been Herschel Walker, endorsed by Trump, is leading the polls despite accusations of physical and mental abuse from his ex-wife, including Walker holding a gun to her head and threatening to Blow her head off. Several years later, the ex got an order of protection after Walker repeatedly called her father and brother, threatening to Blow her brains out
• In Ohio, JR Majewski, an avowed Q-Anon follower and rabid Trump supporter, who admitted to being at the US Capitol on January 6th, won his primary and will be on the ballot in November
• Why not Ohio again? Former Trump aide Max Miller has been accused by his former girlfriend, a former White House comms shop employee of physical abuse. Proving he’s a true Trombie, Miller promptly went to court to file a defamation suit
• And here’s the cherry on top, courtesy of the state of Indiana. Andrew Wilhoite, currently sitting in an Indiana jail accused of killing his cancer stricken wife, won one of 3 open seats for the local township board

Welcome to the wonderful world of the Trump 2022 ballot! As I said earlier, there are 36 of these brain dead morons on the GOP ballot in the primaries this year, and they’re all variations of the same theme. And that theme could spell disaster for the GOP in November.

Here’s what I’m looking for going forward. The Cook Report has estimated that there will be 55-65 competitive or highly competitive districts that will determine the outcome of the 2022 House election. I’m going to keep an eye on the primaries as best I can, and then look to The Cook Report after it’s all over.

First, depending on how many Trombies are successful in the primaries, I want to see if Cook expands the list from 55-65 to something higher. That would indicate that Trump acolytes making the cut have placed other districts at risk. Second, in the wake of the primaries, I want to see if it causes a noticeable shift in the Cook Report predictions. How many districts move from Likely GOP to Lean GOP, or from Lean GOP to Toss up, or even Toss up to Lean Democratic. That will be an indicator of how badly the Trombies have hurt the GOP going into November.

Look, 55-65 seats is not a small number, there are infinite possibilities there. And the more Trombie/Q-Anon candidates that survive, the more tenuous it becomes for the GOP. I keep reminding people, in 2017 there were like 10 special House elections in Trump’s first 8 months, and the Democrats shaved an average of 17 points off of The GOP victory margins in 2020. There really is a thing as Too much Trump. Don’t touch that dial.