Rats are not the brightest of creatures, but they know when they’re cornered. Donald Trump resembles the rat, insofar as what it does not eat, it fouls. Trump and cadre have befouled our institutions as surely as a hoard of rats ruin the contents of a grain silo. Rats are also, so far as we can ascertain, not the most self aware of creatures. But they know enough to know that staying on the sinking ship will surely doom them, whereas there might be a hope of survival, albeit slim, in jumping in the sea and swimming. So will Trump display the acumen of the common rat, and leave his campaign, as it tanks, lists and shudders, or will he go down with the ship? Or, would “dropping out of the race brand him as something worse than loser, a quitter?” Politico:
That one Trump could plausibly answer with an unusual approach: say something approximating the truth. This doesn’t sound much like how Trump talks but, in some moods, it may be close to what he thinks: Fellow Americans, I know I am a disruptor, and everyone knows I thrive on conflict. I believe that disruption is what Republicans and the country needed when I ran for president in 2016, and that is what I delivered. But I realize the pandemic creates a whole new agenda. I am going to devote the balance of my term to trying to get this country opened up safely, and allow someone without my sharp edges make the case for Republicans this fall. […]
Long term, forgoing the race with a measure of self-awareness conceivably could elevate Trump’s historical reputation higher than it would be if he loses reelection after a remorseless and demagogic campaign. In the near term, if a replacement nominee (presumably Vice President Mike Pence) would be indebted to Trump and subject to his leverage if he managed to beat Biden. If he lost, Trump could complain that his protégé blew it, and play GOP kingmaker (perhaps on behalf of one of his children or other allies) in 2024 without the stigma of having been expressly rejected by voters.
How plausible is this? Not terribly.
But how plausible is Trump reversing the astonishing decay in his political foundation in recent months? Winning a second term was always going to be a challenge for a president who has never had a majority job approval. At the start of the year, however, his advisers described a plausible path to reelection. The strategy had three main elements. One assumption was that, even if he was running slightly behind in swing states, his financial and organizational advantages, combined with the passion of supporters, would mean he would outperform polls by 2 to 3 percentage points. The second assumption was that Trump had room to grow his vote share with minority voters, especially African American men; even modest improvement by Trump could weaken the Democratic coalition in devastating ways. The third assumption was that Trump could repackage his divisive style as an asset. “He’s no Mr. Nice Guy,” the narrator intoned in a Trump TV ad that aired during the 2019 World Series, “but sometimes it takes a Donald Trump to change Washington.”
Five months into the pandemic, not one of those three assumptions looks secure. In key swing states, he is running much more than a couple points behind. After the George Floyd murder and Trump’s response, the notion of gains with African American voters is highly unlikely. His plan to portray himself as an ass-kicking chief executive who presided over a booming economy is in tatters, amid vast joblessness and the prospect that the pandemic will shadow virtually every corner of American life well into 2021.
And in the now-proverbial smoke filled rooms, these discussions are taking place as well. Trump’s allies are scared to death. Mitch McConnell has a relationship with Trump which this writer describes as “sullenly transactional.” He goes on to say, “McConnell and the business wing of the GOP don’t much like Trump, but they do like the chance to push their agenda on judges and deregulation.” Indeed they do. But right now they’re backed into a corner along with Trump and the most dire predictions project that this little transactional frolic with Donald Trump will cost the GOP its stature for decades to come. The party was splintered before, that’s how the GOP got into this mess, but splintered is one thing and destroyed quite another. The GOP enablers who choreographed this shitshow are trembling, because more than this one show is at stake. Shows close all the time, the theaters don’t necessary burn to the ground with them.
And Trump’s other “great engine of enablement” is Fox News. They were in business long before Trump and they fully intend to stay in business long after.
What are the incentives of these enablers if, in late September or early October, Trump looks as beleaguered as he does in late July? In either case, an outright break with Trump is unlikely. Fox is concerned most about preserving its huge profitability. The network’s leaders would presumably be wary of potentially sustaining permanent brand damage with corporate advertisers by joining Trump in a last-ditch campaign of racially charged cultural warfare. That’s especially so if they perceive Trump is going to lose anyway. In the case of McConnell, he knows that Trump’s unpopularity is the primary factor that continued GOP control of the Senate is at best a toss-up. He and other Republicans already aretrying to localize their races, not splitting with Trump but finding distance from him.
Everybody in Trump world is looking to survive Trump world, because they know Trump won’t. This is a lot different from when Bob Dole ran. Everybody in that race knew that Dole was not going to win. Dole himself knew it. But he carried on. And why? Because he was part of something greater than himself, to which he owed a personal loyalty. Donald Trump doesn’t even understand the concept. The Bulwark:
…Bob Dole was a Republican who had an institutional interest—not merely a personal interest—in the health of the Republican party. Dole’s incentives were aligned with the party’s incentives, and so Dole ran an honorable campaign that gave down-ballot Republicans the ability to not only survive, but thrive.
The GOP held its majority in the House (they lost only three seats) and actually picked up two Senate seats in 1996, even as Clinton beat Dole by +9 points.
Here is a thing some people said in 2016 about Donald Trump:
This man, in addition to his general bad character and unfitness for office, has no interest in the Republican party as an institution and will burn it to the ground if he thinks it will profit him one iota. Ceding control of the party to a person whose incentives have previously, and may in the future, wildly diverge from the party’s incentives is an invitation to disaster.
Lindsey Graham said it himself, back in the day when he was still thinking straight.
If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed…….and we will deserve it.
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 3, 2016
That was a statement of wisdom then, a prescient one, and now we’re going to see it come to pass.
So, no, I don’t think Trump will resign. Although I will say this much: the man is a profound coward and a “runner” as the psychologists say. And he’s miserable. He’s not enjoying the presidency. He thought this was going to be a ceremonial, show biz gig and it’s turned into a greater nightmare than he could have imagined. Now there is dialogue about seeking accountability from this administration for the coronavirus disaster, beyond merely voting it out Therefore, as things get worse as election day draws near, anything is possible.
If there’s one thing we have learned about Trump world, it is that the truth is stranger than fiction and you can’t make this shit up. On that principle alone, keep your eyes open because the only thing to be sure of is that there’s nothing to be sure of. A lot can happen in ninety days. Or in ninety minutes. This we have learned. Like Captain Ahad, keep your eye trained to the horizon.
That article is BS from start to finish because it makes the same mistake the whole GOP has about Trump: assuming rational decisionmaking when his disorder is in charge of such decisions. Functionally, he HAS already quit and is just going through the motions as long as he has to, occasionally lying to himself when the truth hurts too bad. But he’ll never make it official. Like everything else with him, we’re going to have to do that one ourselves.
What is interesting about this, is that I believe that Trump would love to quit. This is the point in his life when he cuts and runs. In this case, it’s not so easy. He can’t just declare bankruptcy and find some other rainbow to chase. He’s got to face the music and he can’t. That’s why he’s coming more unglued as the days go by. That’s why I say that nothing would surprise me. I don’t expect him to leave, but I have not expected many developments that have taken place. I rule out nothing.
But if he can’t cut and run, what’s next for a bankrupt? Burning it to the ground. Put on your fireproof suit.
There’s a problem with that. If Trump burns down the GOP, he can hardly be a commentator on it and an asset on Trump TV or OAN. His post-presidency career is threatened not just his presidency.
I think there’s fairly broad agreement that his post-presidency career is going to consist of sitting in courtrooms hearing judgement passed on him, followed by long periods in prison. where he will be joined by his accomplices.
It also assumes that minority voters would willingly vote for a guy who is so obviously racist.
He had 8% of the black vote in 2016 and I believe the last poll put him at 3%. I can’t imagine any POC voting for him. that’s like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders.
Ordinarily, I’d say that no one who’s gone through the agonizing experience of a presidential campaign would value the office so little as to resign during his first term (that’s why LBJ’s refusal to run again in 1968 was so shocking). But I’ve learned over the last four years that Donald J. Trump doesn’t do anything in a rational manner. Still, I’m afraid that looking forward to a Trump resignation is what the psychologists call “motivated cognition” — just plain wishful thinking.
I agree. But bear in mind, Trump has no impulse control. You’ve seen him stalk out of news conferences. If he gets freaked out enough, he might just up and quit. I’m not predicting it. I merely repeat, rule out nothing.
And if that’s the Oct surprise, with Pence and Haley left standing, it could be a problem…. But I don’t see him leaving the presidency as long as he can make a buck and cause a ton of suffering and misery doing it.
There is no bloody way that he would resign. His ego wouldn’t let him. He hates losers and, even though he is definitely a loser, he could never do anything that would appear to him as being a loser.
The quandary he’s in is this: if he resigns, then his ego won’t handle it. If he gets clobbered at the polls, then his ego won’t handle it. So what does he do to save his precious ego?
He retreats farther into his fantasy world, most likely.
That is the only alternative. And when the dust settles, he’ll talk about “tens of millions, hundreds of millions of fraudulent votes were cast. Illegal aliens were voting. Space aliens were voting. Dead people were voting. And that’s how I got robbed.”
I think he’s voted maybe three times in his life, and all of them are within the last 10 years.
Exactly this, Ursula. For all intents and purposes, this is where he is already at mentally. We just need to formalize it.
The poor guy, I jest of course, cannot even play a zero sum game with himself. He loses no matter what he does. Which to me means he has to construct some sort of alternate reality in which losing is really winning. But then, he is a narcissistic sociopathic individual, so maybe there is some way to slice and dice this to give him this sort of out?
Don’t know but this is not at all what he expected–every previous time his tail has been in a wringer he has gotten out of it somehow, even when the escapes weren’t without cost. But this time around? Not at all possible–he’s too deep in the quicksand and the clock is ticking toward his confrontation with his wrongdoing. And as Denis says here, the state of New York has a big interest in him and his schemes. Wouldn’t want to go up against Tish James if I were the Donald.
Yeah, Donnie is like Stapleton at the end of Hound of the Baskervilles, drowning in the muck of Grimpen Mire while attempting to escape his covert crimes.
That’s why I say watch the cash. Forty or fifty million by a lot of ego. And I know that he’s got to know he has to get out of dodge before the feds get paper on him.
That’s what I say. He’s slick in different ways. He knows he toast but quoting is not a option. Young Freddie vs old Freddy. I go with fraudulent voters. Now the trick is to make it work. I may be wrong but I see travel plans in his future.
Trump’s ability to survive is such that if they had the ability to do so cockroaches (a species that seems to survive any catastrophe or natural disaster) would be begging him for lessons. Trump isn’t smart but he’s got enough street savvy, at least moneyed interest NYC type savvy to have slithered and slimed his way out of major personal trouble over the decades. However, in all those lawsuits and legal inquiries he’s gotten a sense of when the shit is really serious and has to limp away and endure a bit of short-term embarrassment, or cough up some cash (I keep pointing out Rudy G.’s first big donor for his launch into politics was Trump – and all of a sudden an investigation into Trump’s company melted away) but this time is different. Like others I don’t think he truly expected to “win” but did love thinking about the ceremonial stuff of which you speak if he did. What he didn’t count on was the glare of the Presidential Spotlight. I doubt anyone who hasn’t had it shined on them since TV came on the scene really knew how bright and focused it could be. Sadly, one of Trump’s gifts has been the ability to widen that spotlight with the myriad of distractions he creates. Journalists and his base have been all too willing (and too often) to look at the stuff and people on the edge of the spotlight instead of at Trump standing in the middle.
I DO think he’s realized just how big a mistake he made stepping into that spotlight and when it comes to his resigning he’s trapped as surely as if he was behind bars in a prison. In fact, that’s what he’s justifiably terrified of. That proverbial spotlight of the Presidency affords him protection from legal jeopardy like nothing else can. Without it he’s facing a whole host of civil and criminal legal problems that will wind up leaving him broke and possibly in prison – if not federal then state since so many of his crimes and civil misdeeds took place in New York which has laws that rival what the feds can do to him including a NY State version of RICO with teeth as sharp as the federal version. Any deal he cuts with Pence and the GOP for a Nixon style pardon to stand down and get the hell out of the way is useless at the state level.
As a result, even though I believe he’s long since stopped having fun, and now can’t even have the “junkies’ fix” of his rallies to carry him through the tedium of the WH he really would like to “Declare Victory” and walk away & then from the peanut gallery lob Newt Gingrich style hand grenades at the GOP blaming all of THEM for whatever ills conservative’s policies have wrought. However, he needs the statute of limitations to run out on some of his financial crimes, and that means another term. And the hopes that McConnell has helped stack the federal courts with enough judges AND that Roberts and Gorusuch who sometimes piss off their Federalist Society brethren will eradicate their not often enough “sort of” independence and issue some breathtakingly bad precedents that will protect him if he lives out a second term.
Trump is in that trash compacter from the first Star Wars movie but instead of good guys it’s just him and Barr, Jarvanka and Miller (along with others who aren’t part of his WH inner circle) but an R2D2 not at all inclined to hack in and shut the thing down. He’s realizing that in his desire for all the “fun” trappings of the Presidency and assuming the actual work part of it was something he could handle the way he did his company that he’s headed for a very “bigly” bitter lesson in the old adage about being careful what you wish for.
Sorry folks. He isn’t going anywhere. There’s too much money to be made & the golf is keeping his resort at the taxpayer teat. With 6 months to go, that’s a ton of green.
After three and three quarters years, you’d think people would retire the rescue fantasies, wouldn’t you (though, to be fair, the worst pandemic in a century does much to encourage such magical thinking)? But I expect the money will do him little good and his children even less.
Is he still president? Nothing he says or does seems to have any connection to the reality the rest of us live in.
Watch what he does with his campaign funds. Trump is greedy and if he’s going to quit he will stash a large portion somewhere.
If recent reports are anything to go by, he’s already doing that. I expect he’ll botch his escape like he has everything else.
I don’t think he will quit he sees his dad every time he looks in the mirror and that who I believe he’s talking to, it not us just my opinion. So he says how am I doing dad
I will not read all this Politico BS. If the Democrats win the election America and all it has stood for is over. Please name 1 thing Obama and Biden did for America? Obama got rich that’s for sure. He cares nothing about Black Lives, please. He is nauseating!
What do you think Democrats could have done any better on covid? Nothing! All they want to do is blame Trump. Democrats are not Democrats anymore. My Grandparents were and they were good people. They have joined the radical left and are destroying this country!