Obviously, Putin Has Stopped Thinking Clearly

It finally happened, it finally happened, it finally happened. I’m slightly mad   Queen   I’m going slightly mad

I’m sitting here listening to the coverage on MSNBC of Putin asking China for military equipment to send into Ukraine, and I still can’t believe it. This is an act of dictatorial stupidity that ranks right up there with Nero taking violin lessons during the sack of Rome. Obviously Putin is so frazzled he’s no longer capable of thinking clearly.

So much to unpack, and so little space. Let’s start with the really stupid, obvious shit first. It was only a day or two ago that I explained one of the reasons for that stalled 40 mile convoy. It turns out that Russians can’t make high quality tires, at least not heavy duty ones. So they turned to China, and bought a shitload of cheap Goodyear knockoff truck and jeep tires. Which started popping like champagne corks every mile and a half or so under field conditions. And now Putin wants China to send him tanks and armored personnel carriers? Come on Vlad, how much war surplus scrap does Ukraine need?

And this isn’t Putin’s first bull at the rodeo. It has already been reported that since the start of the war, he has already hit up both Belarus and Kazakhstan for equipment and supplies. And both of them turned him down flat. What I can’t understand is why Putin asked in the first place. Since Both Russia friendly countries are supplied mostly with Russian military equipment, anything they sent him would pretty much be the same shit his troops are already abandoning all over the Ukraine. What’s the point?

But I can’t for the life of me figure out why Putin is running to payday loan places between paychecks? Russia has one of the largest militaries in the world. And right now they have about 200,000 men, minus losses, and commensurate equipment in Ukraine. Putin should have more than enough equipment and manpower to move up and stage from the interior of the country, and send into Ukraine. This tells me two things. Putin now realized that his military equipment is shit, and he can’t afford to send home 10,000 body bags to grieving Russian families in one month. Time to send in the ringers.

Now, on to the meat-and-potatoes. The Russian army uses Russian produced weapons and equipment, and they train on that from day one. Just like the American armed forces use American made weapons and systems, and train on that from day one. But if the United States decides to sell advanced weapons systems and/or equipment to a foreign government, one if the things they are selling is training and support. The military sends highly qualified trainers to teach the new kids how to play with their new toys without vaporizing themselves of others.

Let’s just say that China decided to send Putin heavy weapons and weapon systems. They will of course ship the shit to Russia. Which does Putn no good, since the instruction manuals are all in Chinese. And if the Chinese send military trainers to Russia, it can take from 2-6 months for them to get the troops up to proficiency, and then those troops will have to move forward with the equipment. Which doesn’t work for Putin, he needs that shit at the front NOW!

Even if Putin can get a Tanks For Dummies video in Russian from China, what happens when he drives them across the border? The Russian soldiers still need training and practice on the equipment. How do the Chinese provide it? If they send so much as one Chinese trainer into Ukraine to provide training and support, then they just became active participants in the Russia-Ukraine war. Which they will never do.

But here’s the cherry on top. It was almost a month ago, when I first heard of Xi’s potential offer to Putin to financially help Russia beat the US-EU sanctions when I made this point. If Putin takes one fucking ruble from Xi, he ceases to be a dictator. Instead, he will spent the rest of his miserable life as Xi’s little bitch. And that goes double for military equipment.

Because one thing I know about military equipment. If you send it into the field, even if it survives, it needs regular, Frequent servicing to keep it operational. Combat is a high stress operation for military equipment. And who will have total control on what, if any replacement parts to send? Xi.

And even if Xi sends replacement parts, what good does that do Russian mechanics? They don’t know how to perform the repairs, and might not have the right tools. Either Xi sends trainers to Russia, which is useless since the equipment is in Ukraine, or Russia sends mechanics to China, and who knows how long it takes to train them up?

Either way you look at it, if Putin takes military hardware from China, it is now Xi who is calling the shots, for as long as the conflict lasts. Because it will be XI who will decide what and how many replacement parts and ammunition to send, and Xi will decide the tariff Russia will pay for it. And if Putin continues to fuck up, and it becomes uncomfortable for China, it is XI who will order Putin to end the war, before he shuts off the funski valve.

Putin will be nothing more than a janissary. Unlike the west, where national leaders often make short term, unplanned decisions, and then try to meddle through the fallout, the Chinese have always taken The Long View. When the People’s Congress gets together annually to discuss the path forward, they don’t talk about an annual budget. Instead they talk about a 10 year plan, and a 20 year plan, and then they tend to stick to it religiously. If Xi gives Putin any kind of aid at all, you can rest assured that he has already thought out the consequences for at least a decade, not the immediate need that Putin is beset with. Putin is like a video poker player sitting down at a WSOP table for the championship round. Totally out of his league.