Well, this should be fun. We’re still six months from the first primary vote being cast, and already the tilt-a-whirl that is the Trump presidency is pitching riders like they forgot to install seat belts on the damn thing. There are already six Republican House incumbents who have announced that they won’t be running for reelection next year, and they haven’t even sounded the general alarm to man the life boats yet.
This is not a new development in the reign of Emperor Numbus Nuttus. In 2018 there were a shocking number of GOP retirements, and this year looks like it might be shaping up to be more of the same. And worse yet for the Republicans is that it isn’t just low level incumbents jumping ship. Mike Conaway is the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, and the GOP lost multiple committee chairs last year.
There are several reasons why an incumbent may choose to vote with his or her feet rather than to run again. They may decide to bail rather than risk a bruising primary fight due to the fact that they have displeased Il Douche in the past. Also, being a House member in the minority is not much fun, since, unlike in the Senate, with the filibuster, you’re basically powerless. And some of them may feel that they can no longer tolerate the stench of being associated with Trump. That may well be true here, since four of the districts being vacated are rated as “safe” Republican.
The Democrats had some good success in flipping these suddenly empty seats in 2018, including some flips that could qualify as “shockers.” But regardless of why the seat opens up, there are significant consequences for both parties, and they’re well worth remembering and considering.
On the Republican side, the experience is a guaranteed bumm-aire, on many levels First, the party is losing an experienced campaigner, with district wide name recognition, a district office staff and campaign structure already in place, and an already set and up and running donor base. Next, the GOP is going to have to go through the process of finding a suitable replacement candidate and educating them to the ins and outs of campaigning, and fundraising. And third, the party is going to have to expend manpower resources and send money to get these fledgling candidates up and running effectively Which means less resources and money available for other, higher risk races they’d like to defend.
On the Democratic side, an incumbent taking a parachute ride is like that first day of spring after a long, hard winter. The main reason is retention. Right now, an incumbent in either party has an average 93% chance of being reelected. basically, unless you get caught on video fondling the neighbor, once you’re in, you’re in, until you decide to leave. The reasons it’s so hard to run against an incumbent are the ones I listed above. Name recognition, an already existing district staff and campaign apparatus, and a ready-to-tap donor base.
But when a seat opens up, that incumbent edge disappears. A Democratic challenger is now on a much more level playing field with his or her opponent. And there are several advantages for the Democrats besides taking the incumbent edge out of the picture. In the era of Trump, Democrats have not had to go out looking for recruits to run against GOP incumbents, they’re knocking down the DCCC’s door. These candidates are generally of a higher quality than their GOP counterparts, and more highly motivated by a purer purpose. Also, the Democratic candidates are not facing an almost certain primary from a card carrying Trumbie. And these candidates are incredibly good at grassroots organizing.In almost every seat that the Democrats flipped last year, the Democratic challengers out raised their opponents, including incumbents, and by a lot, often 2-3 to 1. This means that the DCCC doesn’t need to expend the same time, manpower and money into these candidates that the GOP does.
Look, politics can be a lucrative profession, and once you’re in, it makes little sense to leave without a powerful incentive. And if you’re a Republican incumbent, and you’re not facing a likely primary from the right for disloyalty, and you’re not particularly repulsed by Glorious Bleater’s foul stench, then why not run again? The only reason that makes sense is that in the current environment, it seems highly likely that if you go back, you’ll be in the minority again. And two years of that is enough, it’s just no fun anymore. May as well get a real job and be done with it. Better for your self respect than carrying Trump’s water.
