Less than a half-hour after the polls closed Lawrence O’Donnell made an observation during MSNBC’s live coverage of the results. Seconds after the polls closed NBC’s team that calls elections projected Trump the winner. This of course was expected although making the call less than fifteen seconds after polls closed was startling. Steve Kornacki, whether you love him or hate him had been going through exit polls (three rounds of them in the end) for the better part of three hours so even though it was way to early to be sure about the final margin he (he pointed out he and others on set have no contact with the Decision Desk) and that’s what led to O’Donnell interjecting his comment about it being a disaster for Trump.

He went on to explain, with Kornacki backing him up both during that initial discussion and later on. Exit polls info. presented had all kinds of breakdowns of the GOP primary electorate in South Carolina. O’Donnell emphasized that in the recent Democratic primary there Biden got 96 percent of the vote. However, it was looking like Trump would only get around seventy percent of the GOP primary vote, and for GOP voters Trump was effectively running as an incumbent!

He went on to note in the prior states Trump also failed to get the kind of overwhelming percentage of Republican primary voters as Biden has done with Democrats. (O’Donnell didn’t mention it but keep in mind there are shades of 2016 and Hillary in the Democratic Party right now, the “does it have to be him?” crap) The point O’Donnell was starting to make is that for Trump, not only not getting Biden level numbers, but only getting 70 percent give or take among REPUBLICAN primary votes was huge.

O’Donnell went on to say that if just five percent of that chunk of Haley voters don’t “come home to Trump”  come November then Trump is toast in states like Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and others. In other words those states everyone is saying will be close and decide the election due to our antiquated Electoral College system of choosing a President. Now, one can argue that Iowa, being first and a caucus state and having so many candidates could partially explain why Trump didn’t even pull a majority. But since then as candidates have dropped out he should be doing far better with GOP primary voters than he is.

That friends is the point O’Donnell was making. Trump (and most pundits) insist it’s all over already. All the talk is about how Haley has no path to the nomination and so on. And that’s almost certainly true unless the bulk of the GOP gets some type of proverbial political slap of reality upside the head – and MAGA’s cult fever breaks and those afraid to speak up lose that fear. Fat chance I say. Once Trump’s convicted (not certain but he likely will be) up in Manhattan this spring let’s see what polling looks like then. Especially if he’d headed to trial in DC in May or early June and some of the pre-trial motions get published. It could make for quite the GOP convention as Trump will be the presumptive nominee after Super Tuesday.

Still, we should also pay attention to what O’Donnell had to say. New Hampshire was effectively a two person race and although Trump won handily he didn’t rack up anywhere near close to the overwhelming margin someone in his position should have. However, it’s a quirky place for more reasons than I will go into on a Sat. night so pundits were saying “wait until South Carolina.” It’s decent sized with nine electoral votes. Diverse both demographically and economically. A good mix of business/manufacturing, agriculture and even a decent military presence. And solid red and big time “Evangelical.”  Recent polling had Haley losing by thirty percent. Perhaps even more. It’s more like twenty percent with about 85% of the vote in.

Even allowing for South Carolina being an open primary state (Independents and even Democrats could, if they didn’t vote in the recent Democratic primary could vote today) if the data Kornacki had and on which O’Donnell based his analysis Trump only got about seventy percent give or take of REPUBLICANS.  For a month now it’s been Haley vs. Trump.  That she could peel away that much from Trump then O’Donnell’s assessment is spot-on. Today has been a disaster for Trump.

I’ll add one last though I think bolsters this. It’s anecdotal so bear that fact in mind. Still, during the day as voting was going on reporters were talking with people in lines about to vote or who had voted. I saw multiple voters who said they picked Trump say only positive things about her. They actually thought she’d be a good President and was qualified. Just not so much as Trump, or that they thought only Trump could beat Biden. But the important part is that even those who picked Trump didn’t trash Haley. They’d have gladly voted for it (so it seemed) if she was the nominee.

That reinforces the theme of Haley’s Quixotic campaign – that voters want a choice. Enough of them that they deserve to have one with so many primaries yet to come. South Carolina was a true test for multiple reasons I’ve stated. The fact Trump will only win by twenty percentage points is a bad sign for Trump.  Lawrence O’Donnell is smarter than I am and has actual political experience (he worked for New York Senator Daniel Patrick Moynahan) and has been a political analyst for a long time. If he says the results in South Carolina is a disaster for Trump we should all pay attention.

One final note. About 90% of the vote has been tallied and the margin is holding close to twenty percent. However MSNBC’s Ali Vitali, while continuing to voice a bit of “Hayley is wasting our time – we wanna move on to Trump-Biden horserace talk” pointed out that Haley got 28 percent of REPUBLICAN voters. Yes, she pulled some Independents and maybe some crossover Democrats for whatever reason, but the fact is that the premise of this article, the one O’Donnell (who likely had Kornaicki’s cheat-sheet of exit polling data) has held up. Trump only has wound up with a little over seventy percent of Republicans. Most Haley voters will in the end vote for Trump come November. But if Trump loses even five percent who either vote for someone else or don’t vote at all then Biden kicks his ass not only in the popular vote but the EC as well.

It’s late Saturday night so thank for for taking the time to read this.

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  1. Enough big money, anti-Trump donors will keep Haley’s campaign on life support. They know the total numbers don’t favor a Haley nomination. But the margin favors a weakened Trump in November. Or if Trump is “out of the picture, Haley has the lock.

  2. It’s even worse with 95% of the votes counted – Dumpy has only 59.8% while Haley pulled in 39.5%. That’s a difference of only 20.3 points, far less than Dumpy was expecting. In a recent Tennessee rally, Dumpy claimed the polls showed he was 91 points in front of Haley – more than 70 points got shaved off that fantasy today!

    Haley is right to stay in and we want her to stay in because she’s helping Democrats with her no-holds-barred attack on the narcissistic, criminal manbaby.

    What’s more, Trump’s mental health (such as it is) is taking as much of a hit as his business aspirations and financial position after rulings in the E Jean Carroll defamation suit and Trump Org (aka Grift Co) case in New York. He appears to be halfway to a psychotic break already and a full narcissistic collapse would render him incapable of continuing his campaign. That would put Haley in the lead.

    The GOP Convention may be averse to nominating a woman but then their only other option would be to choose someone who’s even less popular than the two candidates who combined took 99.3% of the South Carolina primary. That would leave them with a pool of people who have less than 1% of Republican popularity.

    South Carolina wasn’t just a disaster for Dumpy, it foretells a disaster for the entire GOP.

  3. I have been hearing/reading about how much dingleberry is winning so much more than his primary opponent in the msm and I too wonder wtf, are they blind? If President Biden received only 75% of the voters in a state’s primary the fools in the msm would be screaming he should be dropped like a red-hot coal. Haley siphoned off almost 40% of the vote f.f.s. and what do I hear? crickets.

    Haley ought to stay in. One reason is she is probably pissing his ass off and it is always fun to watch that sh*t, him going off the rails. If she has the funding, and apparently she does have some nice donors, staying in until the convention is smart because who knows how things will look as more convictions come out from the upcoming trials. Who knows how much money he will lose, how many assets will be sold off, etc. Hell, his ass might be on its way to the pokey after the GA or the Jack Smith trial. Poor and/or in prison is not a way to win elections. Then too his cognitive decline isn’t going to stop; can it hasten its pace? Don’t know but were that to happen, people might notice–even republicans. He might still keep the magats but that is probably all and he cannot win the general with just the magats. She ought to at least wait for the s.c. to decide whatever they are going to decide in the prez immunity case. If they were to say, “no, nope, nada. You cannot do whatever the f*ck you want.” I think primaries will start to go her way. I want to remind everyone of this however: as a prognosticator, I make a real good cook.

    Interesting times. More of them. Oy vey.

  4. Trump is showing signs of an obvious dis-connect with simple realities, deep-rooted mind slips in long term memory banks, FAMILY’s names and present at occasion, if he cannot, at this point, handle the pressures of interviews, public microphones, or handling the usual comments from well-known pundits on evening shows, coming into court against some tough criminal lawyers with very little to NONE of his own good defense lawyers, the jig may be up for Donald Dipshit …

    He, proving time and again, his lack of knowledge and an assembly of ancient rhetoric, is ALL THERE IS, bar none, his ability to pass ordinary amounts of gas + pant loads of smelliness, makes him one of the worst, “In the same room”, personages out there …

    I’m very sure when he finally gets to prison, the local tenants will find a term to put him in his place, like, “Shit and Pee Pants, QUE BALL”, after all, he won’t be allowed multiple cans of hair spray and chances are pretty good they will shear off any REAL hair he has left …

    He WILL be at risk as soon as the populace learns about his association with Epstein and his treatment of young girls … as well as those that he has raped and tormented since …

    The neatest thing about Trump, is his innate ability to personally incriminate himself …

    The loads of ready to make hot popcorn with REAL BUTTER will need to be brought out for our consumption, Trump’s doing everything he can to spend SERIOUS time in Prison …

    The whines and weak knee collapses while being escorted out to the Prison van will keep the level of entertainment HIGH …

    • Don’t count on the MAGA crowd caring about Epstein. They.likely already know about it and either don’t believe it or (wink wink, nudge nudge) think boys will.be boys.”

  5. The fear was there on Trump’s face when he spoke late in the evening. He knew Haley had 40% of the voters and he did not sound convincing when he stated “the party is unified like we’ve never seen it before.” Sure, Jan!

  6. THAT is the only picture that should ever be used about trump. Except when his hair’s a mess or on fire!

    Please keep using it. A magic Tulsa Day.

  7. We know Trump stinks in so.many ways but being stressed, old, and overweight are three of the main causes of his personal.stench. I also suspect that he doesn’t shower every day or use a deoderant because to twist a phrase, he thinks his sweat (and sh*t)/don’t stink, as my father phrased it. Got news for you,,Donnie, it does.


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