Despite the joy coming off a clear victory, President-elect Donald Trump has a major issue that nearly no new administration faces – the fact that he cannot run again in 2028, at least under the Constitution as in place right now. As an initial position, not a single Republican will ever have to run again in support of another Donald Trump campaign. The unique dynamic has already had a big impact according to Anthony  Scaramucci – Trump’s very brief one-time communications director. “Mooch” says that we saw a lame duck dynamic play out already when Matt Gaetz withdrew his nomination.
I do not agree, at least not to the extent that Scaramucci describes. But the unusual one-term dynamic most certainly does have an impact on how the GOP sees the near future, especially those in the Senate fresh off victories or looking to possible Democratic wave elections in 2026 and 2028. So it is worth hearing Mooch’s point as transcribed by Rawstory: (Video is below)
“I think there’s been a shape shift by the Republicans in the Senate. You know, they see Trump as a lame duck. They know there’s one more election that he can have lots of influence on, which is the congressional election in two years, and I think they are fortifying themselves to block some of the things that he’s done in the past, and so the Trump season, you know, this is ‘The Apprentice: White House Edition’ season two. I think the cast members up on Capitol Hill are ready for Donald Trump this time. I don’t think they were as prepared as they are now, and I think the messaging [to Gaetz] was, behind closed doors: ‘You’re not going to make it, don’t embarrass the president and withdraw.'”
Gaetz is such an extreme example that it’s not a good template on which to examine the broader environment. We are talking about a man detested by nearly every Republican in the House, never mind the Senate. Even if one sets aside possible criminal behavior, Gaetz is someone who paid for sex with very very young women while passing drugs around. And he was nominated to be attorney general. If anything, the GOP Senate did Trump a massive favor by clearing the table. The hearings would’ve been horrific on the GOP Senate and done immense damage to Donald Trump. (Seen from their perspective.)
Mooch went on to discuss Peter Hegseth – who I think is a far more valuable template on which to examine this very question for reasons I’ll set out below:
“Now, the other questions are, you know, about some of these other candidates. Will, Pete Hegseth end up having to do the same thing, and I will predict if there’s more information about Pete that comes out, he’ll be No. 2 to go that way. But I think Pam Bondi, by the way, will do well. Pam Bondi says the things that Donald Trump likes to hear, but she won’t do the things that Donald Trump likes to do, and so I think that’s someone that respects the system, and I think she’ll get it. I think she’ll get through.”
The police report from the Hegseth sexual assault is about as ugly as one can imagine and wholly disqualifying. The Senate must confront him over it. But Hegseth must also be forced to answer why he advocates a “crusade” against anyone to his left, something that hasn’t gotten enough reporting due to his marriages, love child, and rape accusation (His personal life is an utter wasteland). Hegseth must be made to answer for what he’s written in his books, which are set out by Jonathan Chaitt in the Atlantic, who writes:
“[Hegseth] considers himself to be at war with basically everybody to Trump’s left, and it is by no means clear that he means war metaphorically.”
Chait comments on Hegseth’s most terrifying view:
“Are the Crusades just a metaphor? Sort of, but not really: ‘Our American Crusade is not about literal swords, and our fight is not with guns. Yet.’ (Emphasis—gulp—his).”
Chait concludes:
“The main question I was looking to answer when I started reading Hegseth’s collected works was whether he would follow a Trump command to shoot peaceful protesters. After having read them, I don’t think he would even wait for the order.”
Donald Trump asked previous cabinet officials whether they could shoot protesters in the leg in the wake of the George Floyd death. Hegseth may be the one asking Donald Trump for that very order. It is conceivable that having been down this road once, it may actually be Trump himself who ends up having to moderate some of the most extreme true believers – conceivable. But it’s far better to assume the opposite and that people like Hegseth cannot be in place to follow such an illegal order. It makes Hegseth that much more dangerous.
It thus becomes important to ask whether the GOP Senate believes that it has enough strength to overcome the one-term incoming president (Again, let’s assume our basic premise, that Trump cannot even contemplate running again. Use age alone if for no other reason). It does appear that they at least helped crash the Gaetz thing.
But step back in utter awe. We are talking about the Secretary of Defense, one of the five most powerful positions in the country, easily. Hegseth wouldn’t pass a background check to be your babysitter. He is very credibly accused of raping a woman. He paid her off. She has a contemporaneous record of it. He did so just after becoming the father of a child during a brief affair resulting in a divorce. He wants to go on a violent crusade against anyone he believes is to his left – he will determine who is best for America’s future. And yet we’re debating whether he will make it through confirmation? It is also telling that it’s possible that only Democrats will even bring up Chait’s findings in Hegseth’s book. He would be the first Secretary of Defense more interested in fighting a civil war than protecting the country from adversaries like China or Iran. The very fact that he’s nominated says nearly everything needed as to how much power Donald Trump retains.
About the only thing that can be said with any certainty is that Trump would have that much more power if he did have the Constitutional right to run again in 2028. There would be even less pushback from the Senate. As it is, it’s stunning that Hegseth has lasted this long. Perhaps nominations are something that need to be addressed one at a time (That actually makes some sense). Perhaps now that Gaetz is off the board they will promptly move on to examining whether Hegseth stands a chance, whether the GOP and Trump decide that hearings would be too devastating and disruptive.
Which brings us to the last point – hearings at all. There is a ton of talk about recess appointments and removing the Senate as an obstacle entirely. And that is the real measure. Recess appointments for all blows the Senate up in total. If they aren’t willing to fight for their right to advise and consent then the constitutional question comes right back front and center. Moreover, Trump himself will need to analyze whether he wants to have the recess appointment fight. He has immense power as is, does he want to risk it by grabbing recess appointments when, on the whole, they might be unnecessary? It is worth watching because one could argue to Trump that he can only weaken himself by pushing recess appointments right now and to save his power for another right. I am not advising, only wondering what he might be told and how they might see it.
As it stands, it does seem like Trump and the GOP presume they’ll go forward using Senate nominations. It would follow that Hegseth will be next. It is not like there is a shortage of true loyalists who don’t have such a repugnant past with concurrent political issues. There are reports that the transition didn’t know of Hegseth’s past troubles. Trump should be furious – absolutely furious – with Hegseth that Hegseth didn’t immediately withdraw his name from consideration, knowing his issues. Where was Hegseth’s loyalty?
Perhaps the transition is furious. If so, it shouldn’t take long. Maybe they are waiting for Hegseth to withdraw, though now Hegseth is a bit of a lame duck himself. It seems like Fox News can’t put him on the air anymore! For sure. And wow, is that ever fitting. But what does it mean when a person has a better shot at being Secretary of Defense than continuing employment on Fox News as a weekend anchor?
It says that Donald Trump has as much power as any single person in recent American history. Yes, he would have even more if he could constitutionally run again. But that isn’t saying all that much. Either the Senate steps in to reassert itself or not. The real question will come down to whether they have hearings at all. If the Senate does hold confirmation hearings over the nominees (Still a big “if”) then it is probably safe to say that Hegseth is cooked. But only believe it when you see it.
This is a very complex dynamic and I’m not sure anyone knows with certainty how it will all play out, this may be especially true of Donald Trump – who at least has been allowed to appear a bit lost in the nomination process. Keep watch because no one knows how this will all end, only that it’s critically important. (Mooch Video below)
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Dictatorship. The constitution is just a piece of paper for the king to wipe his ass with as the hypocritical leaders will wring their hands and give us ‘thoughts and prayers’. Let’s see what he does after January after pledging to uphold it while having led a violent criminal mob to overthrow it…and he’s BACK??? America. FAFO. PHUCK AROUND AND FIND OUT.
And that is precisely why I set it out as a working assumption only, nothing more. Normally nothing would even need be said, this isn’t normal.
Pam bondi who once delayed an execution so she could attend a party or some event. most if not all republican senators are on board with the heritage foundation and will want Trump to their pre-vetted list of nominees. they all have an agenda and will want Trump to get with the program.